WORLD FRIENDLIES
04.10.2026 02:00
State Farm Stadium

USA vs Mexico Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
Probability Distribution
USA Win 0%
Draw 0%
Mexico Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
USA1.29
Mexico2
Recent Form (Last 5)
USA USA
WWDLW
17 GF / 19 GA
Mexico Mexico
WLDWL
25 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.89
Average Goals Scored
1.92
2.11
Average Goals Conceded
0.38
6
BTTS Yes
3
6
Over 2.5
4
3.67
Shots on Goal
4.54

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

USA USA 9 matches
Mexico Mexico 13 matches
USA Statistic Mexico
4 Wins 10
0 Draws 2
5 Losses 1
17 Goals For 25
19 Goals Against 5
1.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.92
2.11 Avg Goals Conceded 0.38
6 BTTS Yes 3
9 Over 1.5 8
6 Over 2.5 4
5 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 10
1 Failed To Score 1
3.67 Shots On Goal 4.54
11.89 Total Shots 13
5.11 Corners 4.85
52.4% Ball Possession 54.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, USA won 6 times, Mexico won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:14 from USA's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.14 goals per game.

Predicted formations: USA 3-5-2 / Mexico 4-1-2-3
H2H summary: USA wins 6, draws 3, Mexico wins 5