TUNISIA LIGUE 1
04.05.2026 15:00
Stade Mustapha Ben Jannet
US Monastirienne
Match Timeline
ES Metlaoui
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
H. Mansri
ES Metlaoui
🟨
40'
US Monastirienne
US Monastirienne
🟨
56'
ES Metlaoui
ES Metlaoui
🟨
68'
ES Metlaoui
ES Metlaoui
🟨
69'
US Monastirienne
US Monastirienne
🟨
90+2'
ES Metlaoui
ES Metlaoui
🟨
90+3'
ES Metlaoui
ES Metlaoui

US Monastirienne vs ES Metlaoui Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 74.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
74.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
US Monastirienne Win 72.9%
Draw 23%
ES Metlaoui Win 4.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
US Monastirienne0.91
ES Metlaoui0.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
US Monastirienne US Monastirienne
WWDLW
25 GF / 16 GA
ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui
WLDWL
18 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
0.67
0.59
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
9
BTTS Yes
7
6
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

US Monastirienne US Monastirienne 27 matches
ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 27 matches
US Monastirienne Statistic ES Metlaoui
10 Wins 8
12 Draws 12
5 Losses 7
25 Goals For 18
16 Goals Against 24
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 0.67
0.59 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
9 BTTS Yes 7
14 Over 1.5 13
6 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 3
14 Clean Sheets 14
11 Failed To Score 13
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with US Monastirienne's more proactive style and ES Metlaoui's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward ES Metlaoui. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward ES Metlaoui having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

US Monastirienne Analysis

US Monastirienne come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 42 points from 27 matches. The record of 10 wins, 12 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 25:16 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through F. Ben Youssef (6 goals), M. Haj Ali (4 goals), R. Chikhaoui (4 goals), with creative support from F. Ben Youssef (2 assists), I. Souissi (1 assists), M. Ghorbel (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

ES Metlaoui Analysis

ES Metlaoui are currently 7 in the standings with 36 points from 27 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 12 draws, and 7 losses, while the 18:24 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Ouled Behi (6 goals), B. N. Sylla (2 goals), C. Bodian (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, US Monastirienne won 5 times, ES Metlaoui won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:18 from US Monastirienne's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (95.9%)
Predicted formations: US Monastirienne 4-2-3-1 / ES Metlaoui -
H2H summary: US Monastirienne wins 5, draws 6, ES Metlaoui wins 4

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 9 2 43:10 33 66
D W W D W
2 30 18 9 3 45:11 34 63
W L W D D
3 30 18 8 4 43:13 30 62
W W W D W
4 30 12 12 6 28:14 14 48
W D L L L
5 30 11 12 7 28:18 10 45
W L L W L
6 30 11 8 11 30:28 2 41
W W W L W
7 30 11 8 11 28:30 -2 41
L W L L W
8 30 9 13 8 19:25 -6 40
D L W W D
9 30 10 6 14 24:33 -9 36
D L L W L
10 30 8 11 11 18:22 -4 35
L D L W W
11 30 11 2 17 26:33 -7 35
D L W W L
12 30 8 9 13 18:29 -11 33
L L L L D
13 30 9 5 16 18:39 -21 32
D W L W L
14 30 9 4 17 20:41 -21 31
D W W L L
15 30 6 9 15 15:31 -16 27
L W W D W
16 30 3 9 18 11:37 -26 18
L L L L D
Champions League
CAF Confederation Cup
Relegation