URUGUAY SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Uruguay Montevideo
Match Timeline
Oriental
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
41'
M. Viera
Uruguay Montevideo
90+1'
M. Rigoleto
Oriental

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.9%
Odds 3.08
0 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.90
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.25
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.9%
3.08
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.90
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.25
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
Uruguay Montevideo Win 62.9%
Draw 7%
Oriental Win 30.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Uruguay Montevideo1.09
Oriental1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Montevideo
WWDLW
16 GF / 19 GA
Oriental Oriental
WLDWL
22 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
8
BTTS Yes
9
5
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Montevideo 15 matches
Oriental Oriental 16 matches
Uruguay Montevideo Statistic Oriental
4 Wins 6
4 Draws 6
7 Losses 4
16 Goals For 22
19 Goals Against 18
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
8 BTTS Yes 9
11 Over 1.5 12
5 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Oriental's more proactive style and Uruguay Montevideo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Oriental. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Oriental having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Uruguay Montevideo have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Uruguay Montevideo Analysis

With 7 points from 9 games and a place of 14, Uruguay Montevideo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 9:14 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Oriental Analysis

Oriental sit 10 with 11 points after 9 league matches. The record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 14:12 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Uruguay Montevideo won 3 times, Oriental won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:11 from Uruguay Montevideo's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93%)
H2H summary: Uruguay Montevideo wins 3, draws 2, Oriental wins 3
Last matches: Uruguay Montevideo
05.07.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Colón
0
1
L
27.06.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Fenix
3
2
W
21.06.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Rentistas
0
1
L
13.06.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Miramar
1
3
L
07.06.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Tacuarembo
0
1
L
30.05.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
24.05.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
La Luz
0
2
L
16.05.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Cerrito
2
2
D
08.05.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Atenas
1
2
L
26.04.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
11.04.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
La Luz
2
0
W
06.04.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Cerrito
1
2
L
31.03.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Atenas
1
0
W
22.03.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Sportivo Huracan
1
1
D
15.03.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Fenix
1
1
D
25.10.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Tacuarembo
0
0
D
17.10.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Rentistas
3
1
W
11.10.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
La Luz
0
0
D
05.10.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Cerrito
1
2
L
27.09.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Colón
0
1
L
Last matches: Oriental
04.07.26
Seg
Oriental
CA River Plate
1
2
L
28.06.26
Seg
Oriental
Colón
1
1
D
20.06.26
Seg
Oriental
Fenix
2
2
D
13.06.26
Seg
Oriental
Rentistas
3
0
W
08.06.26
Seg
Oriental
Miramar
2
2
D
01.06.26
Seg
Oriental
Tacuarembo
2
0
W
22.05.26
Seg
Oriental
Plaza Colonia
1
3
L
17.05.26
Seg
Oriental
La Luz
0
0
D
10.05.26
Seg
Oriental
Cerrito
2
2
D
02.05.26
Seg
Oriental
Fenix
0
1
L
24.04.26
Seg
Oriental
Plaza Colonia
0
2
L
20.04.26
Seg
Oriental
Rentistas
2
1
W
12.04.26
Seg
Oriental
Miramar
2
1
W
05.04.26
Seg
Oriental
Paysandu
1
0
W
23.03.26
Seg
Oriental
Colón
0
0
D
14.03.26
Seg
Oriental
CA River Plate
3
1
W
24.10.25
Seg
Oriental
Rentistas
2
1
W
18.10.25
Seg
Oriental
La Luz
1
1
D
12.10.25
Seg
Oriental
Cerrito
3
2
W
04.10.25
Seg
Oriental
Colón
0
0
D
H2H: Uruguay Montevideo vs Oriental
14.09.25
H2H
Uruguay Montevideo
Oriental
0
4
L
21.06.25
H2H
Oriental
Uruguay Montevideo
1
1
D
14.09.24
H2H
Oriental
Uruguay Montevideo
0
2
W
02.06.24
H2H
Uruguay Montevideo
Oriental
2
1
W
21.04.24
H2H
Oriental
Uruguay Montevideo
3
2
L
25.10.23
H2H
Uruguay Montevideo
Oriental
0
1
L
10.06.23
H2H
Oriental
Uruguay Montevideo
0
0
D
26.03.23
H2H
Oriental
Uruguay Montevideo
1
2
W
Last matches: Uruguay Montevideo
27.06.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Fenix
3
2
W
13.06.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Miramar
1
3
L
30.05.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
16.05.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Cerrito
2
2
D
26.04.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
22.03.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Sportivo Huracan
1
1
D
15.03.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Fenix
1
1
D
25.10.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Tacuarembo
0
0
D
11.10.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
La Luz
0
0
D
27.09.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Colón
0
1
L
14.09.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Oriental
0
4
L
07.09.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Artigas
1
4
L
24.08.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Fenix
0
1
L
16.08.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Atenas
1
2
L
26.07.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Rentistas
1
3
L
12.07.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Cerrito
0
0
D
28.06.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
1
3
L
08.06.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Albion FC
0
3
L
31.05.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Rampla Juniors
2
1
W
17.05.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Central Espanol
2
1
W
H2H at home: Uruguay Montevideo
14.09.25
H2H
Uruguay Montevideo
Oriental
0
4
L
02.06.24
H2H
Uruguay Montevideo
Oriental
2
1
W
25.10.23
H2H
Uruguay Montevideo
Oriental
0
1
L
Last matches: Oriental
20.06.26
Seg
Oriental
Fenix
2
2
D
08.06.26
Seg
Oriental
Miramar
2
2
D
22.05.26
Seg
Oriental
Plaza Colonia
1
3
L
02.05.26
Seg
Oriental
Fenix
0
1
L
24.04.26
Seg
Oriental
Plaza Colonia
0
2
L
20.04.26
Seg
Oriental
Rentistas
2
1
W
14.03.26
Seg
Oriental
CA River Plate
3
1
W
18.10.25
Seg
Oriental
La Luz
1
1
D
12.10.25
Seg
Oriental
Cerrito
3
2
W
04.10.25
Seg
Oriental
Colón
0
0
D
14.09.25
Seg
Oriental
Uruguay Montevideo
4
0
W
30.08.25
Seg
Oriental
Fenix
1
2
L
20.08.25
Seg
Oriental
Atenas
2
1
W
10.08.25
Seg
Oriental
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
01.08.25
Seg
Oriental
Rentistas
0
2
L
06.07.25
Seg
Oriental
Deportivo Maldonado
0
3
L
28.06.25
Seg
Oriental
Artigas
2
1
W
15.06.25
Seg
Oriental
Albion FC
0
1
L
03.06.25
Seg
Oriental
Rampla Juniors
2
1
W
23.05.25
Seg
Oriental
Central Espanol
1
2
L
H2H away: Oriental
14.09.25
H2H
Uruguay Montevideo
Oriental
0
4
W
02.06.24
H2H
Uruguay Montevideo
Oriental
2
1
L
25.10.23
H2H
Uruguay Montevideo
Oriental
0
1
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.30
Draw 3.02
Home 3.08
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.38
Over 1.75 1.49
Over 2.0 1.67
Over 2.25 1.98
Over 2.5 2.25
Over 2.75 2.62
Over 3.0 3.35
Under 1.5 2.84
Under 1.75 2.49
Under 2.0 2.14
Under 2.25 1.81
Under 2.5 1.61
Under 2.75 1.44
Under 3.0 1.29
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.25
Draw 3.10
Home 2.90
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 2.00
Home 3.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 2.5 2.25
Under 2.5 1.62
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.25
Draw 3.08
Home 3.02
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.97
Draw 1.93
Home 3.90
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.66
Draw 2.23
Home 3.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.0 1.05
Over 1.25 1.21
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 1.75 1.46
Over 2.0 1.63
Over 2.25 1.94
Over 2.5 2.23
Over 2.75 2.59
Over 3.0 3.34
Over 3.25 3.78
Over 3.5 4.20
Over 3.75 4.99
Over 4.0 7.90
Over 4.5 9.00
Over 5.5 23.00
Under 0.5 7.27
Under 1.0 6.40
Under 1.25 3.58
Under 1.5 2.70
Under 1.75 2.38
Under 2.0 2.03
Under 2.25 1.76
Under 2.5 1.57
Under 2.75 1.39
Under 3.0 1.24
Under 3.25 1.19
Under 3.5 1.16
Under 3.75 1.10
Under 4.0 1.02
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.30
Draw 3.05
Home 2.88
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.95
Draw 2.07
Home 3.45
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.70
Draw 2.33
Home 3.20
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.35
Over 2.5 2.12
Over 3.5 3.80
Under 1.5 2.75
Under 2.5 1.58
Under 3.5 1.20

Standings

Segunda Division: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 1 2 17:8 9 19
D W W W L
2 10 5 2 3 17:16 1 17
W W D L W
3 9 4 3 2 14:13 1 15
D W L L W
4 10 4 3 3 10:9 1 15
W W D W D
5 9 4 2 3 8:8 0 14
D L W L W
6 9 3 4 2 14:11 3 13
W L D D W
7 9 3 4 2 14:11 3 13
D W L W D
8 10 4 1 5 10:11 -1 13
L W L L W
9 10 3 3 4 8:12 -4 12
L L L W W
10 9 2 5 2 14:12 2 11
L D D W D
11 9 3 2 4 8:12 -4 11
L W W L L
12 9 2 4 3 6:8 -2 10
L D W L L
13 9 2 1 6 11:15 -4 7
W L L L W
14 9 2 1 6 9:14 -5 7
L W L L L
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Apertura)