UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
FT
1 - 2
Bombo Stadium
UPDF
Match Timeline
KCCA
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
37'
E. Ochen
UPDF
87'
E. Anyama
KCCA
89'
E. Katenga
KCCA

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 74%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 48%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
74%
-
BTTS BTTS No
48%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
UPDF Win 18.4%
Draw 7.7%
KCCA Win 74%
Expected Goals (xG)
UPDF0.78
KCCA1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
UPDF UPDF
WWDLW
22 GF / 37 GA
KCCA KCCA
WLDWL
40 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.37
Average Goals Conceded
0.74
10
BTTS Yes
11
10
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UPDF UPDF 27 matches
KCCA KCCA 27 matches
UPDF Statistic KCCA
5 Wins 17
6 Draws 4
16 Losses 6
22 Goals For 40
37 Goals Against 20
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.37 Avg Goals Conceded 0.74
10 BTTS Yes 11
14 Over 1.5 17
10 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 11
14 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by KCCA's more proactive style and UPDF's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring KCCA. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward KCCA having the stronger overall control. UPDF have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. KCCA carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 55 points while UPDF sit 14 on 21, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

UPDF Analysis

UPDF sit 14 with 21 points after 27 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 22:37 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on S. Ssekamatte (7 goals), E. Ochen (5 goals), R. Faridi (3 goals), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

KCCA Analysis

KCCA come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 55 points after 27 matches. With 17 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 40:20, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Ahimbisibwe Ivan (13 goals), S. Ssebaduka (6 goals), H. Achayi (5 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, UPDF won 0 times, KCCA won 10 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:28 from UPDF's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.3%)
H2H summary: UPDF wins 0, draws 4, KCCA wins 10
Last matches: UPDF
23.05.26
Pre
UPDF
SC Villa
1
2
L
19.05.26
Pre
UPDF
Calvary
0
0
D
07.05.26
Pre
UPDF
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
29.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Police
0
2
L
24.04.26
Pre
UPDF
URA
0
0
D
21.04.26
Pre
UPDF
BUL
5
2
W
15.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Express
0
1
L
09.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Mbarara City
3
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Maroons
0
0
D
11.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Vipers
1
2
L
06.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Kitara
1
1
D
03.03.26
Pre
UPDF
NEC
0
1
L
18.02.26
Pre
UPDF
Lugazi
0
1
L
13.02.26
Pre
UPDF
Buhimba Saints
0
0
D
30.01.26
Pre
UPDF
BUL
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
UPDF
KCCA
0
4
L
21.01.26
Pre
UPDF
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
07.01.26
Pre
UPDF
Kitara
1
2
L
16.12.25
Pre
UPDF
NEC
0
0
D
10.12.25
Pre
UPDF
Buhimba Saints
2
2
D
Last matches: KCCA
23.05.26
Pre
KCCA
Mbarara City
4
1
W
19.05.26
Pre
KCCA
URA
0
0
D
07.05.26
Pre
KCCA
Maroons
3
0
W
29.04.26
Pre
KCCA
Vipers
1
1
D
25.04.26
Pre
KCCA
Calvary
0
1
L
21.04.26
Pre
KCCA
Entebbe UPPC
1
0
W
17.04.26
Pre
KCCA
Kitara
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
KCCA
SC Villa
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Lugazi
3
0
W
11.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Express
3
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Police
2
1
W
02.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
18.02.26
Pre
KCCA
BUL
2
1
W
13.02.26
Pre
KCCA
NEC
1
3
L
30.01.26
Pre
KCCA
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
KCCA
UPDF
4
0
W
21.01.26
Pre
KCCA
Maroons
0
0
D
06.01.26
Pre
KCCA
Police
0
2
L
16.12.25
Pre
KCCA
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
12.12.25
Pre
KCCA
NEC
2
1
W
H2H: UPDF vs KCCA
13.05.26
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
1
2
L
27.01.26
H2H
KCCA
UPDF
4
0
L
13.03.25
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
1
2
L
19.10.24
H2H
KCCA
UPDF
0
0
D
07.05.24
H2H
KCCA
UPDF
1
0
L
28.12.23
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
1
2
L
09.04.23
H2H
KCCA
UPDF
1
1
D
09.11.22
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
0
1
L
05.04.22
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
0
3
L
19.11.21
H2H
KCCA
UPDF
2
1
L
20.05.21
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
1
1
D
05.03.21
H2H
KCCA
UPDF
6
1
L
09.04.18
H2H
KCCA
UPDF
2
0
L
16.09.17
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
1
1
D
Last matches: UPDF
19.05.26
Pre
UPDF
Calvary
0
0
D
24.04.26
Pre
UPDF
URA
0
0
D
15.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Express
0
1
L
09.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Mbarara City
3
1
W
11.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Vipers
1
2
L
06.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Kitara
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pre
UPDF
Buhimba Saints
0
0
D
30.01.26
Pre
UPDF
BUL
0
1
L
21.01.26
Pre
UPDF
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
16.12.25
Pre
UPDF
NEC
0
0
D
05.12.25
Pre
UPDF
Lugazi
2
0
W
25.11.25
Pre
UPDF
SC Villa
0
1
L
06.11.25
Pre
UPDF
Police
1
2
L
15.10.25
Pre
UPDF
Maroons
1
2
L
H2H at home: UPDF
13.05.26
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
1
2
L
13.03.25
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
1
2
L
28.12.23
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
1
2
L
09.11.22
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
0
1
L
05.04.22
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
0
3
L
20.05.21
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
1
1
D
16.09.17
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
1
1
D
Last matches: KCCA
19.05.26
Pre
KCCA
URA
0
0
D
25.04.26
Pre
KCCA
Calvary
0
1
L
21.04.26
Pre
KCCA
Entebbe UPPC
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
KCCA
SC Villa
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Lugazi
3
0
W
02.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
13.02.26
Pre
KCCA
NEC
1
3
L
21.01.26
Pre
KCCA
Maroons
0
0
D
06.01.26
Pre
KCCA
Police
0
2
L
07.12.25
Pre
KCCA
BUL
2
1
W
28.11.25
Pre
KCCA
Mbarara City
2
1
W
07.11.25
Pre
KCCA
Vipers
0
1
L
23.10.25
Pre
KCCA
Express
1
0
W
26.09.25
Pre
KCCA
Kitara
1
1
D
H2H away: KCCA
13.05.26
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
1
2
W
13.03.25
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
1
2
W
28.12.23
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
1
2
W
09.11.22
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
0
1
W
05.04.22
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
0
3
W
20.05.21
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
1
1
D
16.09.17
H2H
UPDF
KCCA
1
1
D

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2
KCCA Away
30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14
UPDF Home
30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League