UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Bombo Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 53.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 68.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
53.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
68.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
UPDF Win 66.9%
Draw 24.8%
Calvary Win 8.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
UPDF1.02
Calvary0.82
Recent Form (Last 5)
UPDF UPDF
WWDLW
23 GF / 39 GA
Calvary Calvary
WLDWL
12 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
0.44
1.39
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
11
BTTS Yes
6
11
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UPDF UPDF 28 matches
Calvary Calvary 27 matches
UPDF Statistic Calvary
5 Wins 3
6 Draws 8
17 Losses 16
23 Goals For 12
39 Goals Against 36
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 0.44
1.39 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
11 BTTS Yes 6
15 Over 1.5 11
11 Over 2.5 5
6 Over 3.5 5
7 Clean Sheets 9
14 Failed To Score 18
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Calvary. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Calvary having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. UPDF have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

UPDF Analysis

UPDF sit 14 with 21 points after 28 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 17 defeats with a 23:39 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Ssekamatte (7 goals), E. Ochen (6 goals), R. Faridi (3 goals), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Calvary Analysis

With 17 points from 28 games and a place of 15, Calvary still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 12:39, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through L. Olaboro (7 goals), S. Oriokot (2 goals), E. Ojok (1 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, UPDF won 1 times, Calvary won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:0 from UPDF's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91.7%)
H2H summary: UPDF wins 1, draws 1, Calvary wins 0
Last matches: UPDF
23.05.26
Pre
UPDF
SC Villa
1
2
L
13.05.26
Pre
UPDF
KCCA
1
2
L
07.05.26
Pre
UPDF
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
29.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Police
0
2
L
24.04.26
Pre
UPDF
URA
0
0
D
21.04.26
Pre
UPDF
BUL
5
2
W
15.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Express
0
1
L
09.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Mbarara City
3
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Maroons
0
0
D
11.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Vipers
1
2
L
06.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Kitara
1
1
D
03.03.26
Pre
UPDF
NEC
0
1
L
18.02.26
Pre
UPDF
Lugazi
0
1
L
13.02.26
Pre
UPDF
Buhimba Saints
0
0
D
30.01.26
Pre
UPDF
BUL
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
UPDF
KCCA
0
4
L
21.01.26
Pre
UPDF
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
07.01.26
Pre
UPDF
Kitara
1
2
L
16.12.25
Pre
UPDF
NEC
0
0
D
10.12.25
Pre
UPDF
Buhimba Saints
2
2
D
Last matches: Calvary
23.05.26
Pre
Calvary
NEC
2
0
W
12.05.26
Pre
Calvary
URA
1
1
D
06.05.26
Pre
Calvary
Police
1
0
W
29.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
Calvary
KCCA
1
0
W
22.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Kitara
0
0
D
15.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Lugazi
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Calvary
Vipers
0
1
L
10.03.26
Pre
Calvary
Maroons
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pre
Calvary
BUL
1
5
L
18.02.26
Pre
Calvary
Express
0
0
D
12.02.26
Pre
Calvary
Mbarara City
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Calvary
Kitara
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
Calvary
URA
0
0
D
21.01.26
Pre
Calvary
Police
0
2
L
07.01.26
Pre
Calvary
BUL
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Calvary
SC Villa
0
1
L
13.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Mbarara City
1
1
D
09.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Vipers
0
0
D
H2H: UPDF vs Calvary
19.05.26
H2H
UPDF
Calvary
0
0
D
19.11.25
H2H
Calvary
UPDF
0
1
W
Last matches: UPDF
13.05.26
Pre
UPDF
KCCA
1
2
L
24.04.26
Pre
UPDF
URA
0
0
D
15.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Express
0
1
L
09.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Mbarara City
3
1
W
11.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Vipers
1
2
L
06.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Kitara
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pre
UPDF
Buhimba Saints
0
0
D
30.01.26
Pre
UPDF
BUL
0
1
L
21.01.26
Pre
UPDF
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
16.12.25
Pre
UPDF
NEC
0
0
D
05.12.25
Pre
UPDF
Lugazi
2
0
W
25.11.25
Pre
UPDF
SC Villa
0
1
L
06.11.25
Pre
UPDF
Police
1
2
L
15.10.25
Pre
UPDF
Maroons
1
2
L
H2H at home: UPDF
19.05.26
H2H
UPDF
Calvary
0
0
D
Last matches: Calvary
12.05.26
Pre
Calvary
URA
1
1
D
29.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
22.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Kitara
0
0
D
14.03.26
Pre
Calvary
Vipers
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pre
Calvary
BUL
1
5
L
12.02.26
Pre
Calvary
Mbarara City
0
1
L
21.01.26
Pre
Calvary
Police
0
2
L
17.12.25
Pre
Calvary
SC Villa
0
1
L
04.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Express
0
4
L
25.11.25
Pre
Calvary
NEC
0
1
L
31.10.25
Pre
Calvary
KCCA
2
4
L
22.10.25
Pre
Calvary
Maroons
0
0
D
04.10.25
Pre
Calvary
Buhimba Saints
0
2
L
26.09.25
Pre
Calvary
Lugazi
1
3
L
H2H away: Calvary
19.05.26
H2H
UPDF
Calvary
0
0
D

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14
UPDF Home
30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League