PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
25.07.2026 01:30
Estadio Monumental
Referee: E. Ordonez
Universitario
Match Timeline
Cusco
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
20'
A. Valera · Assist: L. Alzugaray
Universitario
🟨
28'
J. Rivera
Universitario
🟨
38'
A. Fuentes
Cusco
🟨
55'
R. Lagos
Cusco
🔄
59'
C. Diez ↔ C. Montano
Cusco
🔄
59'
J. Manzaneda ↔ Miguel Silveira
Cusco
🔄
66'
H. Fertoli ↔ A. Quiroz
Universitario
70'
F. Callejo · Assist: L. Colitto
Cusco
🔄
76'
J. Rivera ↔ J. Requena
Universitario
🔄
76'
J. Castillo ↔ G. Lapadula
Universitario
🔄
77'
I. Colman ↔ N. Silva
Cusco
🔄
83'
R. Lagos ↔ J. Bolivar
Cusco
🔄
83'
D. Soto ↔ O. Valenzuela
Cusco
🟨
86'
Miguel Silveira
Cusco
🔄
87'
L. Alzugaray ↔ J. Guivin Tanta
Universitario
90'
G. Lapadula
Universitario

Universitario vs Cusco Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.4%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.4%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 1-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Universitario Win 65.4%
Draw 11.9%
Cusco Win 22.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Universitario1.44
Cusco1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Universitario Universitario
WWDLW
39 GF / 25 GA
Cusco Cusco
WLDWL
30 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.2
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
13
BTTS Yes
15
13
Over 2.5
13
4.04
Shots on Goal
4.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Universitario Universitario 28 matches
Cusco Cusco 25 matches
Universitario Statistic Cusco
13 Wins 9
8 Draws 5
7 Losses 11
39 Goals For 30
25 Goals Against 38
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
13 BTTS Yes 15
18 Over 1.5 18
13 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 6
12 Clean Sheets 3
9 Failed To Score 7
4.04 Shots On Goal 4.25
13.5 Total Shots 11.46
6.21 Corners 3.54
52.7% Ball Possession 55%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Universitario's more proactive style and Cusco's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Universitario expected to line up in 3-1-4-2 and Cusco in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cusco having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cusco. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Universitario Analysis

Placed 4 with 29 points from 17 outings, Universitario continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, while the 24:15 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Edison Flores (3 goals), Alex Valera (3 goals), Caín Fara (2 goals), with creative support from Edison Flores (2 assists), Jairo Concha (2 assists), Andy Polo (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Cusco Analysis

So far, Cusco have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 27 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, while the 21:24 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Iván Colman (2 goals), Juan Tévez (2 goals), Facundo Callejo (2 goals), with creative support from José Miguel Manzaneda (2 assists), Iván Colman (1 assists), Lucas Colitto (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Universitario won 6 times, Cusco won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:11 from Universitario's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.1%)
Predicted formations: Universitario 3-1-4-2 / Cusco 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Universitario wins 6, draws 3, Cusco wins 1

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 8 2 41:16 25 53
D L D W D
2 25 13 7 5 41:26 15 46
D W W W D
3 25 13 6 6 35:23 12 45
W W W D W
4 25 12 6 7 43:28 15 42
W L D W L
5
Cusco Away
25 13 3 9 38:36 2 42
W W L W L
6 25 12 5 8 34:42 -8 41
L L L L D
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 25 10 7 8 37:31 6 37
W W W D W
9 25 9 7 9 27:25 2 34
L W W D D
10 25 9 5 11 43:38 5 32
W L L W D
11 25 7 9 9 34:35 -1 30
D L W L W
12 25 8 5 12 22:27 -5 29
L W W W D
13 25 8 5 12 33:42 -9 29
W W L L D
14 25 7 7 11 36:51 -15 28
D W W L D
15 25 6 7 12 23:35 -12 25
L L W D L
16 25 6 6 13 38:49 -11 24
L W L L W
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 25 4 8 13 29:45 -16 15
L L L L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2