06.09.2026 01:30
Estadio Monumental
Referee: M. Espinoza
Universitario
Match Timeline
Comerciantes Unidos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Fabio Rojas
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
21'
Matías Sen
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
25'
Juan Manuel Requena
Universitario
44'
Jhon Sanchez · Assist: J. Olivares
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
46'
J. Requena ↔ J. Murrugarra
Universitario
🔄
46'
A. Quiroz ↔ P. A. Quispe Cordova
Universitario
50'
C. Inga · Assist: J. Concha
Universitario
53'
F. Alcedo · Assist: R. Vilca
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
62'
Gianluca Lapadula
Universitario
🔄
66'
Jhon Sanchez ↔ P. Guzman
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
66'
A. Arias ↔ A. Rodriguez
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
77'
C. Fara ↔ L. Alzugaray
Universitario
VAR
81'
Alex Valera
Universitario
83'
G. Lapadula
Universitario
🔄
84'
R. Vilca ↔ J. Herrera
Comerciantes Unidos
VAR
85'
Josuee Herrera
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
88'
Jorge Murrugarra
Universitario
🔄
90+6'
J. Parodi ↔ P. Fuentes
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
90+6'
M. Sen ↔ E. M. Perez Azambuya
Comerciantes Unidos

Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.86
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.1%
1.36
BTTS Yes
82.5%
2.20
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.86
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.2%
1.60
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.83
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Universitario Win 75.1%
Draw 4.1%
Comerciantes Unidos Win 20.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Universitario1.46
Comerciantes Unidos1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Universitario Universitario
WWDLW
52 GF / 33 GA
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos
WLDWL
33 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.27
0.97
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
17
BTTS Yes
16
17
Over 2.5
12
4.23
Shots on Goal
4.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Universitario Universitario 34 matches
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 26 matches
Universitario Statistic Comerciantes Unidos
17 Wins 7
9 Draws 9
8 Losses 10
52 Goals For 33
33 Goals Against 35
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
0.97 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
17 BTTS Yes 16
24 Over 1.5 17
17 Over 2.5 12
8 Over 3.5 10
13 Clean Sheets 5
10 Failed To Score 7
4.23 Shots On Goal 4.58
13.6 Total Shots 13.79
5.67 Corners 3.63
51.7% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Universitario's more proactive style and Comerciantes Unidos's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Comerciantes Unidos arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Universitario arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 45 points compared to Comerciantes Unidos in 11 on 29, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Universitario expected to line up in 3-1-4-2 and Comerciantes Unidos in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Comerciantes Unidos having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Comerciantes Unidos. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Universitario Analysis

Universitario come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 45 points after 24 matches. They have recorded 13 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, with a 39:24 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Alex Valera (7 goals), Edison Flores (3 goals), Gianluca Lapadula (3 goals), with creative support from Jairo Concha (3 assists), Alex Valera (2 assists), Edison Flores (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Comerciantes Unidos Analysis

Comerciantes Unidos sit 11 with 29 points after 24 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 8 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 32:33 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Matías Sen (5 goals), Rodrigo Vilca (3 goals), Josuee Herrera (2 goals), with creative support from Rodrigo Vilca (3 assists), Josuee Herrera (3 assists), Mathías Carpio (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Universitario won 10 times, Comerciantes Unidos won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:10 from Universitario's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Universitario 3-1-4-2 / Comerciantes Unidos 4-4-2
H2H summary: Universitario wins 10, draws 4, Comerciantes Unidos wins 1

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 44:18 26 56
W L D L D
2 27 14 7 6 43:31 12 49
L W D W W
3 27 14 6 7 39:24 15 48
W L W W W
4 27 13 7 7 45:29 16 46
D W W L D
5 27 14 3 10 40:38 2 45
W L W W L
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 27 11 7 9 40:35 5 40
W L W W W
9 27 11 5 11 48:40 8 38
W W W L L
10 27 10 8 9 29:26 3 38
D W L W W
11 27 10 5 12 37:44 -7 35
W W W W L
12 27 9 7 11 42:52 -10 34
W W D W W
13 27 9 5 13 26:31 -5 32
L W L W W
14 27 7 9 11 35:38 -3 30
L L D L W
15 27 7 6 14 41:52 -11 27
L W L W L
16 27 6 7 14 24:41 -17 25
L L L L W
17 26 5 7 14 27:41 -14 22
L L L L D
18 27 4 8 15 32:50 -18 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2