ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Referee: Guillermo Enrique Guerrero Alcivar, Ecuador
Universidad Catolica
Match Timeline
Tecnico Universitario
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Luis Mario Córdova Mina
Tecnico Universitario
7'
J. Fajardo
Universidad Catolica
12'
R. Chilla
Universidad Catolica
🟨
16'
Yorlin Arce
Tecnico Universitario
34'
J. Fajardo · Assist: D. Nazareno
Universidad Catolica
🔄
43'
Y. Arce ↔ B. Delgado
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
43'
R. Chilla ↔ J. Caicedo
Tecnico Universitario
🟨
44'
Stiwar Mena
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
46'
E. Mejia ↔ J. Mina
Universidad Catolica
55'
J. Fajardo · Assist: A. Londono
Universidad Catolica
🔄
61'
M. Castano ↔ K. Arce
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
61'
Johan Bocanegra ↔ C. Garcia
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
64'
F. Martinez ↔ J. Cacciabue
Universidad Catolica
🔄
64'
J. Fajardo ↔ B. Palacios
Universidad Catolica
🔄
64'
A. Rodriguez ↔ J. Chala
Universidad Catolica
🔄
74'
L. Moreno ↔ R. Troya
Universidad Catolica
🔄
76'
Cordova ↔ M. A. Carrasco Bonilla
Tecnico Universitario
🟨
78'
Julian Anaya
Tecnico Universitario
VAR
90+4'
Byron Palacios
Universidad Catolica
🟨
90+1'
Stiwar Mena
Tecnico Universitario
🟥
90+1'
Stiwar Mena
Tecnico Universitario
90'
A. Londono · Assist: Jhon Chancellor
Universidad Catolica

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.4%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Universidad Catolica Win 75.4%
Draw 5.8%
Tecnico Universitario Win 18.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Universidad Catolica1.35
Tecnico Universitario0.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica
WWDLW
38 GF / 26 GA
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario
WLDWL
20 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
0.87
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
12
BTTS Yes
8
11
Over 2.5
8
4.63
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica 25 matches
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 23 matches
Universidad Catolica Statistic Tecnico Universitario
11 Wins 8
6 Draws 2
8 Losses 13
38 Goals For 20
26 Goals Against 25
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 0.87
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
12 BTTS Yes 8
17 Over 1.5 13
11 Over 2.5 8
7 Over 3.5 1
10 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 10
4.63 Shots On Goal 3.86
14.08 Total Shots 12.09
4.75 Corners 4.82
58% Ball Possession 42.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Universidad Catolica's more proactive style and Tecnico Universitario's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Universidad Catolica arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 35 points compared to Tecnico Universitario in 14 on 23, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Tecnico Universitario. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Universidad Catolica expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Tecnico Universitario in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tecnico Universitario having the stronger overall control. Tecnico Universitario arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Universidad Catolica Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 35 points from 21 games, Universidad Catolica bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 33:19, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through José Fajardo (4 goals), Byron Palacios (4 goals), Daniel Clavijo (4 goals), with creative support from Mauro Díaz (7 assists), Eddy Mejía (2 assists), José Fajardo (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Tecnico Universitario Analysis

With 23 points from 21 games and a place of 14, Tecnico Universitario still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 12 defeats with a 19:24 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Mateo Castano (3 goals), Julian Anaya (3 goals), Johan Bocanegra (2 goals), with creative support from Mateo Castano (2 assists), Johan Bocanegra (2 assists), Luis Estupiñan (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Universidad Catolica won 6 times, Tecnico Universitario won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:16 from Universidad Catolica's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: Universidad Catolica 4-1-4-1 / Tecnico Universitario 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Universidad Catolica wins 6, draws 6, Tecnico Universitario wins 3
Stats
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
3
3 Corner Kicks 7
9 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 1
66% Ball Possession 34%
7 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Goal 3
2 Shots off Goal 4
1 Blocked Shots 3
5 Shots insidebox 4
2 Shots outsidebox 6
3 Goalkeeper Saves 0
542 Total passes 265
482 Passes accurate 212
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 5 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Universidad Catolica
Formation
Tecnico Universitario
J. Lara
J. Lara
D. Nazareno
🎯
D. Nazareno
L. Canga
L. Canga
Jhon Chancellor
🎯
Jhon Chancellor
E. Mejia
E. Mejia
L. Moreno
L. Moreno
F. Martinez
F. Martinez
A. Londono
🎯
A. Londono
A. Rodriguez
A. Rodriguez
M. Alonso
M. Alonso
J. Fajardo
⚽ 3
J. Fajardo
S. Razzeto
S. Razzeto
E. E. Mesa Mercado
E. E. Mesa Mercado
R. Chilla
R. Chilla
J. Anaya
J. Anaya
S. Mena
S. Mena
Cordova
Cordova
Johan Bocanegra
Johan Bocanegra
M. Castano
M. Castano
Y. Arce
Y. Arce
F. Castillo
F. Castillo
H. Guardia
H. Guardia
Universidad Catolica 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
12
J. Lara
G
24
D. Nazareno
🎯 34'
33
L. Canga
D
4
Jhon Chancellor
🎯 90'
D
30
E. Mejia
↓ 46'
D
15
L. Moreno
↓ 74'
M
10
F. Martinez
↓ 64'
M
9
A. Londono
⚽ 90' 🎯 55'
M
23
A. Rodriguez
↓ 64'
M
32
M. Alonso
M
7
J. Fajardo
⚽ 7' ⚽ 34' ⚽ 55' ↓ 64'
F
Substitutes
1
L. Cueva
G
8
E. Clavijo
F
5
J. Cacciabue
↑ 64'
M
37
C. Medina
D
19
M. Sevillano
M
44
E. Valencia
D
28
M. Diaz
M
18
B. Palacios
↑ 64'
F
29
G. Anangono
D
14
J. Mina
↑ 46'
D
26
S. Yanez
F
17
R. Troya
↑ 74'
M
20
J. Chala
↑ 64'
M
Tecnico Universitario 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
S. Razzeto
23
E. E. Mesa Mercado
D
53
R. Chilla
⚽ 12' ↓ 43'
M
13
J. Anaya
🟨 78'
D
5
S. Mena
4
Cordova
↓ 76' 🟨 5'
D
10
Johan Bocanegra
↓ 61'
F
70
M. Castano
↓ 61'
M
85
Y. Arce
↓ 43' 🟨 16'
M
15
F. Castillo
9
H. Guardia
F
Substitutes
12
A. Morales
G
30
K. Arce
↑ 61'
D
67
M. A. Carrasco Bonilla
↑ 76'
M
25
B. Delgado
↑ 43'
F
6
L. B. Torres Nazareno
D
16
J. Caicedo
↑ 43'
M
11
C. Arteaga
F
19
A. Castillo
F
60
S. Freire
F
77
C. Garcia
↑ 61'
M
90
W. Caicedo
F
Last matches: Universidad Catolica
22.08.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Manta FC
5
1
W
18.08.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Macara
1
1
D
10.08.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
1
2
L
27.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
22.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Barcelona SC
2
1
W
18.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
2
0
W
15.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
10.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Leones del Norte
0
1
L
06.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Mushuc Runa SC
2
3
L
31.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
0
1
L
23.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Orense SC
2
1
W
16.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Delfin SC
2
2
D
09.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
1
2
L
01.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
27.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Manta FC
0
1
L
24.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Macara
4
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
2
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
2
0
W
09.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Guayaquil City FC
4
1
W
Last matches: Tecnico Universitario
22.08.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Guayaquil City FC
2
3
L
16.08.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
1
2
L
10.08.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Mushuc Runa SC
0
3
L
26.07.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Manta FC
1
0
W
22.07.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Independiente del Valle
0
3
L
19.07.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Aucas
0
1
L
15.07.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Libertad
0
1
L
11.07.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Macara
0
2
L
07.07.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Orense SC
2
1
W
02.06.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Leones del Norte
2
1
W
15.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
LDU de Quito
1
2
L
09.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Delfin SC
4
0
W
02.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Deportivo Cuenca
1
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
22.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
0
1
L
18.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Mushuc Runa SC
0
1
L
12.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Manta FC
2
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
H2H: Universidad Catolica vs Tecnico Universitario
01.08.26
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
5
0
W
12.04.26
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Universidad Catolica
0
2
W
24.08.25
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
2
0
W
03.05.25
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
04.11.24
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Universidad Catolica
2
0
L
19.09.24
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
2
2
D
14.05.24
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
3
2
W
08.03.24
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Universidad Catolica
0
3
W
05.08.23
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
0
0
D
26.02.23
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Universidad Catolica
4
1
L
13.09.22
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
24.04.22
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
4
1
W
14.08.21
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
13.03.21
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
1
1
D
08.12.20
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Universidad Catolica
1
0
L
Last matches: Universidad Catolica
22.08.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Manta FC
5
1
W
22.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Barcelona SC
2
1
W
15.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
06.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Mushuc Runa SC
2
3
L
16.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Delfin SC
2
2
D
01.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
24.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Macara
4
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
2
0
W
09.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Guayaquil City FC
4
1
W
17.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
08.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Leones del Norte
3
0
W
13.02.26
CON
Universidad Catolica
Juventud
3
4
L
H2H at home: Universidad Catolica
01.08.26
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
5
0
W
24.08.25
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
2
0
W
19.09.24
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
2
2
D
14.05.24
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
3
2
W
05.08.23
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
0
0
D
24.04.22
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
4
1
W
13.03.21
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
1
1
D
Last matches: Tecnico Universitario
16.08.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
1
2
L
22.07.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Independiente del Valle
0
3
L
15.07.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Libertad
0
1
L
07.07.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Orense SC
2
1
W
15.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
LDU de Quito
1
2
L
02.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Deportivo Cuenca
1
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
18.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Mushuc Runa SC
0
1
L
05.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Manta FC
2
0
W
19.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Aucas
1
0
W
08.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Macara
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
08.02.26
Fri
Tecnico Universitario
Aucas
0
1
L
H2H away: Tecnico Universitario
01.08.26
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
5
0
L
24.08.25
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
2
0
L
19.09.24
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
2
2
D
14.05.24
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
3
2
L
05.08.23
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
0
0
D
24.04.22
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
4
1
L
13.03.21
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
1
1
D

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 22 1 3 64:26 38 67
W W W W W
2 26 13 5 8 30:26 4 44
W L W W L
3 26 12 7 7 45:23 22 43
W D L W D
4 25 12 6 7 33:25 8 42
D W W W W
5 26 12 5 9 26:20 6 41
W W L W W
6 26 10 9 7 28:20 8 39
W D L D L
7 26 9 8 9 28:28 0 35
L W L D W
8 25 9 7 9 28:29 -1 34
D W W W W
9 26 8 9 9 32:34 -2 33
D D W W L
10 26 8 9 9 25:29 -4 33
W D D L D
11 26 9 5 12 22:32 -10 32
D L L L W
12 26 8 6 12 30:39 -9 30
L W D L L
13 26 8 8 10 21:31 -10 29
L W D L L
14 26 8 2 16 23:37 -14 26
L L L L W
15 26 6 6 14 17:28 -11 24
L L D L L
16 26 4 5 17 12:37 -25 17
L L W L L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs