ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Olimpico Atahualpa
Referee: K. Miranda
Universidad Catolica
Match Timeline
Libertad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
24'
Cristhian Valencia
Libertad
🔄
46'
C. Gruezo ↔ J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
Libertad
57'
Jhon Chancellor · Assist: E. Mejia
Universidad Catolica
🔄
58'
A. Rodriguez ↔ A. Londono
Universidad Catolica
🔄
58'
M. Alonso ↔ M. Diaz
Universidad Catolica
🔄
67'
J. Guisamano ↔ S. Bueno
Libertad
🔄
67'
C. Valencia ↔ E. Caicedo
Libertad
🔄
72'
J. Fajardo ↔ B. Palacios
Universidad Catolica
🔄
72'
E. Mejia ↔ E. Rose
Universidad Catolica
🔄
79'
D. Coronel ↔ A. Chere
Libertad
85'
B. Palacios · Assist: M. Diaz
Universidad Catolica
VAR
87'
Byron Palacios
Universidad Catolica
🔄
89'
J. Cacciabue ↔ J. Chala
Universidad Catolica
🟨
90+2'
Bryan Caicedo
Libertad

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 72%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 50%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
72%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
50%
-
Probability Distribution
Universidad Catolica Win 71.7%
Draw 18.9%
Libertad Win 9.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Universidad Catolica1.38
Libertad1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica
WWDLW
18 GF / 11 GA
Libertad Libertad
WLDWL
8 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
1
1
Average Goals Conceded
1
6
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
4
4.6
Shots on Goal
3.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica 11 matches
Libertad Libertad 8 matches
Universidad Catolica Statistic Libertad
5 Wins 2
4 Draws 4
2 Losses 2
18 Goals For 8
11 Goals Against 8
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 1
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1
6 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 5
4 Over 2.5 4
3 Over 3.5 1
5 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 2
4.6 Shots On Goal 3.75
13 Total Shots 10
4.3 Corners 4
58.6% Ball Possession 52.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Universidad Catolica's more proactive style and Libertad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Libertad. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Universidad Catolica arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 16 points compared to Libertad in 10 on 10, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Universidad Catolica expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Libertad in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Libertad having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Universidad Catolica Analysis

Universidad Catolica approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 16 points after 8 outings. They have recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses, with a 13:4 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on B. Palacios (3 goals), E. Clavijo (2 goals), A. Londono (1 goals), with creative support from Jhon Chancellor (2 assists), Mauro Díaz (2 assists), B. Palacios (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Libertad Analysis

Libertad are currently 10 in the standings with 10 points from 8 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, while the 8:8 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Chere (2 goals), V. Branda (2 goals), B. Caicedo (1 goals), with creative support from G. J. Cortez Casierra (2 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), A. Chere (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Universidad Catolica won 2 times, Libertad won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:10 from Universidad Catolica's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.22 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (90.6%)
Predicted formations: Universidad Catolica 4-2-3-1 / Libertad 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Universidad Catolica wins 2, draws 5, Libertad wins 2
Stats
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica
Libertad Libertad
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 2
11 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 5
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Goal 3
6 Shots off Goal 4
5 Blocked Shots 2
14 Shots insidebox 5
4 Shots outsidebox 4
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
519 Total passes 360
461 Passes accurate 302
2.35 expected_goals 0.47
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Universidad Catolica
Formation
Libertad
R. Romo
R. Romo
G. Anangono
G. Anangono
L. Canga
L. Canga
Jhon Chancellor
Jhon Chancellor
E. Valencia
E. Valencia
L. Moreno
L. Moreno
J. Cacciabue
J. Cacciabue
M. Alonso
M. Alonso
A. Rodriguez
A. Rodriguez
E. Mejia
🎯
E. Mejia
J. Fajardo
J. Fajardo
D. Cabezas
D. Cabezas
E. Patta
E. Patta
B. Caicedo
B. Caicedo
C. Gruezo
C. Gruezo
A. Garcia
A. Garcia
C. Valencia
C. Valencia
V. Branda
V. Branda
I. Zambrano
I. Zambrano
B. Corozo
B. Corozo
J. Guisamano
J. Guisamano
D. Coronel
D. Coronel
Universidad Catolica 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
R. Romo
G
29
G. Anangono
D
33
L. Canga
D
4
Jhon Chancellor
⚽ 57'
D
44
E. Valencia
D
15
L. Moreno
M
5
J. Cacciabue
↓ 89'
M
32
M. Alonso
↓ 58'
M
23
A. Rodriguez
↓ 58'
M
30
E. Mejia
🎯 57' ↓ 72'
M
7
J. Fajardo
↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
12
J. Lara
G
6
D. Palacios
D
9
A. Londono
↑ 58'
F
19
M. Sevillano
M
24
D. Nazareno
28
M. Diaz
🎯 85' ↑ 58'
M
10
F. Martinez
M
18
B. Palacios
⚽ 85' ↑ 72'
F
13
E. Rose
↑ 72'
F
26
S. Yanez
F
20
J. Chala
↑ 89'
M
Libertad 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
12
D. Cabezas
G
17
E. Patta
D
6
B. Caicedo
🟨 90+2'
D
5
C. Gruezo
↓ 46'
D
36
A. Garcia
D
63
C. Valencia
↓ 67' 🟨 24'
M
70
V. Branda
M
7
I. Zambrano
M
19
B. Corozo
M
23
J. Guisamano
↓ 67'
M
49
D. Coronel
↓ 79'
F
Substitutes
52
A. Bao
66
J. Estacio
M
10
G. J. Cortez Casierra
M
29
R. Zambrano
D
25
M. Lucas
D
20
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
↑ 46'
D
8
S. Castro
M
33
A. Chere
↑ 79'
F
16
J. Cifuentes
F
27
S. Bueno
↑ 67'
M
9
E. Caicedo
↑ 67'
F
Last matches: Universidad Catolica
06.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Mushuc Runa SC
2
3
L
31.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
0
1
L
23.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Orense SC
2
1
W
16.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Delfin SC
2
2
D
09.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
1
2
L
01.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
27.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Manta FC
0
1
L
24.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Macara
4
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
2
0
W
09.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Guayaquil City FC
4
1
W
22.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
17.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Leones del Norte
3
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
13.02.26
CON
Universidad Catolica
Juventud
3
4
L
06.02.26
CON
Universidad Catolica
Juventud
1
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
Universidad Catolica
Sporting Cristal
1
3
L
Last matches: Libertad
04.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
3
L
30.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
2
L
23.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Independiente del Valle
3
2
W
16.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
10.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Emelec
1
1
D
02.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
W
26.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Macara
0
3
L
21.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
12.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Orense SC
1
2
L
07.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
2
2
D
21.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
0
0
D
19.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
13.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
08.03.26
Lig
Libertad
LDU de Quito
2
1
W
28.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
24.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
0
W
H2H: Universidad Catolica vs Libertad
18.04.26
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
2
0
W
21.11.25
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
1
1
D
19.10.25
H2H
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
16.08.25
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
1
1
D
29.04.25
H2H
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
3
1
L
10.08.24
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
1
2
L
12.03.24
H2H
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
0
1
W
07.11.23
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
0
0
D
27.05.23
H2H
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
2
2
D
Last matches: Universidad Catolica
06.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Mushuc Runa SC
2
3
L
16.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Delfin SC
2
2
D
01.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
24.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Macara
4
0
W
09.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Guayaquil City FC
4
1
W
17.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
08.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Leones del Norte
3
0
W
13.02.26
CON
Universidad Catolica
Juventud
3
4
L
H2H at home: Universidad Catolica
18.04.26
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
2
0
W
21.11.25
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
1
1
D
16.08.25
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
1
1
D
10.08.24
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
1
2
L
07.11.23
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
0
0
D
Last matches: Libertad
30.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
2
L
23.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Independiente del Valle
3
2
W
10.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Emelec
1
1
D
26.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Macara
0
3
L
12.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Orense SC
1
2
L
21.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
0
0
D
13.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
H2H away: Libertad
18.04.26
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
2
0
L
21.11.25
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
1
1
D
16.08.25
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
1
1
D
10.08.24
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
1
2
W
07.11.23
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
0
0
D

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 13 1 3 36:18 18 40
W W L W W
2 17 8 5 4 20:13 7 29
W L W W L
3 17 8 5 4 20:16 4 29
W D W L W
4 17 8 3 6 19:14 5 27
L W D W W
5 17 8 3 6 18:19 -1 27
L W D W W
6 17 7 5 5 28:17 11 26
L L W D L
7 17 7 2 8 19:17 2 23
W W W L W
8 17 6 5 6 16:18 -2 23
W D L L W
9 17 6 4 7 22:24 -2 22
L L L W W
10 17 5 6 6 22:23 -1 21
W D D L L
11 17 5 5 7 18:19 -1 20
W D L W L
12 17 6 5 6 14:17 -3 20
D W W D D
13 17 5 4 8 14:20 -6 19
L L D L L
14 17 4 5 8 9:16 -7 17
D L L D L
15 17 4 5 8 17:25 -8 17
L L W L D
16 17 3 3 11 7:23 -16 12
L W L D L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs