28.08.2026 22:00
Estadio 15 de Abril
Referee: Pablo Echavarria, Argentina
Union Santa Fe
Match Timeline
Sarmiento Junin
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
8'
Julian Contrera
Sarmiento Junin
18'
C. Tarragona · Assist: E. Giaccone
Union Santa Fe
🔄
23'
M. Luna Diale ↔ I. Malcorra
Union Santa Fe
🟨
43'
Lucas Suárez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
46'
J. Contrera ↔ U. Gimenez
Sarmiento Junin
61'
C. Tarragona · Assist: I. Malcorra
Union Santa Fe
🟨
62'
Ignacio Malcorra
Union Santa Fe
🔄
66'
J. Herrera ↔ P. Magnin
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
66'
S. Salle ↔ G. Gonzalez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
71'
B. Cuello ↔ M. Aguirre
Union Santa Fe
74'
I. Malcorra · Assist: L. Ayala
Union Santa Fe
🔄
78'
L. Menossi ↔ M. Peresutti
Union Santa Fe
🔄
78'
M. Estigarribia ↔ E. Ramirez
Union Santa Fe
79'
J. Mavilla
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
81'
J. Marabel ↔ Diego Churin
Sarmiento Junin
84'
E. Ramirez
Union Santa Fe
🔄
89'
J. Mavilla ↔ E. Gimenez
Sarmiento Junin

Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 63.1%
Odds 1.95
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.14
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
63.1%
1.95
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.14
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.30
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
9.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
15.00
Probability Distribution
Union Santa Fe Win 36.9%
Draw 25.3%
Sarmiento Junin Win 37.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Union Santa Fe1.33
Sarmiento Junin1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe
WWDLW
36 GF / 34 GA
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin
WLDWL
26 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
14
BTTS Yes
10
13
Over 2.5
11
5.13
Shots on Goal
3.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 26 matches
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin 24 matches
Union Santa Fe Statistic Sarmiento Junin
9 Wins 11
7 Draws 1
10 Losses 12
36 Goals For 26
34 Goals Against 30
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
14 BTTS Yes 10
21 Over 1.5 16
13 Over 2.5 11
7 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 7
5.13 Shots On Goal 3.82
15.83 Total Shots 10.55
4.88 Corners 3.91
49.5% Ball Possession 45.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Union Santa Fe's more proactive style and Sarmiento Junin's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Union Santa Fe expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Sarmiento Junin in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sarmiento Junin having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sarmiento Junin. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Union Santa Fe have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Union Santa Fe Analysis

Union Santa Fe approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 21 points from 16 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats with a 24:20 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Lucas Menossi (3 goals), Agustín Colazo (3 goals), Cristian Tarragona (2 goals), with creative support from Julián Palacios (4 assists), Cristian Tarragona (1 assists), Lautaro Vargas (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Sarmiento Junin Analysis

Sarmiento Junin sit 11 with 19 points after 16 league matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 13:20 reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by Junior Marabel (5 goals), Cristian Zabala (1 goals), Pablo Magnin (1 goals), with creative support from Junior Marabel (2 assists), Cristian Zabala (1 assists), Pablo Magnin (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Union Santa Fe won 7 times, Sarmiento Junin won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:15 from Union Santa Fe's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (74.7%)
Predicted formations: Union Santa Fe 4-1-3-2 / Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2
H2H summary: Union Santa Fe wins 7, draws 2, Sarmiento Junin wins 6

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L D L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D W D D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W L D D L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D W L D W
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W L D L W
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
D W L D W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L W W W L
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
L W D W W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W L W W D
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D W W W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D L W D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D D D W W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D D D L W
Knockout Phase