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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA B
29.09.2026 23:00
Estadio Sierra Nevada
Union Magdalena
Match Timeline
Real Cartagena
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
10'
L. Taffur
Real Cartagena
⚽
45'
J. A. Solarte Espana
Union Magdalena
🔄
64'
J. Rodriguez ↔ J. Rios
Real Cartagena
🔄
64'
L. Taffur ↔ D. Castillo
Real Cartagena
🔄
66'
F. Montero ↔ M. Manotas
Real Cartagena
🟨
78'
D. Pino
Real Cartagena
🔄
82'
J. Lerma ↔ F. Molina
Union Magdalena
🔄
82'
D. Mera ↔ R. Rodriguez
Union Magdalena
🔄
85'
J. Giraldo ↔ F. Mosquera
Union Magdalena
🔄
85'
J. Mercado ↔ J. Pimienta
Union Magdalena
🟨
87'
F. Molina
Union Magdalena
🟨
87'
M. Balanta
Real Cartagena
🔄
90+1'
G. Arrieta ↔ M. Ballesteros
Union Magdalena

Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 63.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
63.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Union Magdalena Win 31.1%
Draw 5.5%
Real Cartagena Win 63.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Union Magdalena1.26
Real Cartagena1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Union Magdalena Union Magdalena
WWDLW
41 GF / 29 GA
Real Cartagena Real Cartagena
WLDWL
50 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
1.56
0.97
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
16
BTTS Yes
18
13
Over 2.5
16
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 30 matches
Real Cartagena Real Cartagena 32 matches
Union Magdalena Statistic Real Cartagena
14 Wins 15
7 Draws 9
9 Losses 8
41 Goals For 50
29 Goals Against 35
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
0.97 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
16 BTTS Yes 18
23 Over 1.5 24
13 Over 2.5 16
5 Over 3.5 8
9 Clean Sheets 10
8 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Union Magdalena have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Real Cartagena having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Real Cartagena. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Union Magdalena Analysis

Union Magdalena sit 5 with 48 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 14 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 40:28, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Real Cartagena Analysis

Placed 1 with 54 points from 32 outings, Real Cartagena continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 15 wins, 9 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 50:35 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Union Magdalena won 5 times, Real Cartagena won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:12 from Union Magdalena's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
H2H summary: Union Magdalena wins 5, draws 5, Real Cartagena wins 4

Standings

Primera B: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 12 2 1 29:13 16 38
W W W W W
2 15 10 2 3 27:15 12 32
W L W W W
3 15 9 4 2 20:10 10 31
W W L D W
4 15 9 2 4 24:14 10 29
W W L W W
5 15 7 5 3 23:15 8 26
L L W D W
6 15 6 5 4 16:14 2 23
W W D W L
7 15 6 2 7 21:20 1 20
W L W L W
8 15 5 5 5 15:14 1 20
L W W L D
9 15 4 7 4 13:14 -1 19
D D L W L
10 15 4 5 6 13:17 -4 17
D L L D W
11 15 4 5 6 13:17 -4 17
L W W L D
12 15 2 7 6 15:20 -5 13
L D D D D
13 15 2 7 6 14:19 -5 13
D L D L D
14 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
D W L L L
15 15 1 6 8 12:23 -11 9
L L L D W
16 15 1 4 10 9:23 -14 7
L L L L L
Promotion - Primera B (Apertura - Quadrangular)