CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Municipal Nicolas Chahuan
Referee: Cristian Garay, Chile
Union La Calera
Match Timeline
D. La Serena
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
27'
Yerko Leiva
Union La Calera
🟨
38'
Felipe Chamorro
D. La Serena
43'
J. Vargas · Assist: M. Pinto
D. La Serena
🔄
46'
F. Chamorro ↔ Y. Salazar
D. La Serena
🔄
46'
Y. Leiva ↔ C. Villanueva
Union La Calera
🟨
46'
Matías Marín
D. La Serena
🔄
61'
A. Henriquez ↔ L. Alarcon
D. La Serena
🔄
61'
F. Pozzo ↔ M. Campos
Union La Calera
🔄
67'
M. Pinto ↔ G. Escalante
D. La Serena
🔄
70'
V. Lavin ↔ K. Mendez
Union La Calera
🟨
70'
Carlo Villanueva
Union La Calera
🔄
80'
J. Soto ↔ B. Ferreyra
Union La Calera
🔄
83'
B. Gutierrez ↔ M. Perez
D. La Serena
🔄
84'
J. Vargas ↔ D. Rubio
D. La Serena
🟨
90+4'
Cristián Gutiérrez
Union La Calera
🟨
90+1'
Gonzalo Escalante
D. La Serena

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 61.2%
Odds 3.16
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.88
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
61.2%
3.16
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.88
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
70.9%
1.83
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Union La Calera Win 33.7%
Draw 5.1%
D. La Serena Win 61.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Union La Calera1.48
D. La Serena1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Union La Calera Union La Calera
WWDLW
34 GF / 38 GA
D. La Serena D. La Serena
WLDWL
40 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.74
12
BTTS Yes
16
16
Over 2.5
15
3.4
Shots on Goal
4.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Union La Calera Union La Calera 26 matches
D. La Serena D. La Serena 27 matches
Union La Calera Statistic D. La Serena
8 Wins 7
7 Draws 10
11 Losses 10
34 Goals For 40
38 Goals Against 47
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.74
12 BTTS Yes 16
19 Over 1.5 19
16 Over 2.5 15
9 Over 3.5 12
8 Clean Sheets 7
8 Failed To Score 6
3.4 Shots On Goal 4.35
10.2 Total Shots 11.4
5.45 Corners 4.1
50.3% Ball Possession 47.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Union La Calera have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring D. La Serena. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Union La Calera expected to line up in 5-3-2 and D. La Serena in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward D. La Serena having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Union La Calera Analysis

Union La Calera sit 16 with 14 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 12 defeats with a 17:37 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Kevin Méndez (3 goals), Sebastián Sáez (3 goals), Francisco Jose Pozzo (2 goals), with creative support from Kevin Méndez (4 assists), Christopher Díaz (3 assists), Nicolás Avellaneda (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

D. La Serena Analysis

From their first 20 matches, D. La Serena have collected 24 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 5 wins, 9 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 31:34 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Jeisson Vargas (4 goals), Felipe Chamorro (3 goals), Ángelo Henríquez (2 goals), with creative support from Jeisson Vargas (5 assists), Felipe Chamorro (2 assists), Bruno Gutiérrez (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Union La Calera won 5 times, D. La Serena won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:13 from Union La Calera's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.55 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Union La Calera 5-3-2 / D. La Serena 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Union La Calera wins 5, draws 2, D. La Serena wins 4