BRAZIL SERIE D
23.05.2026 20:00
Municipal Stadium Engineer Luthero Lopes
União Rondonópolis
Match Timeline
Ceilândia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
Lucas Lourenco
União Rondonópolis
18'
Henrique Vigia
Ceilândia
52'
Luiz Gabriel
União Rondonópolis
84'
Julen
Ceilândia
🟥
90+3'
União Rondonópolis
União Rondonópolis
90'
Danillo Ribeiro
Ceilândia

União Rondonópolis vs Ceilândia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 36.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
36.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
-
Correct Score 1-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
União Rondonópolis Win 34.3%
Draw 36.9%
Ceilândia Win 28.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
União Rondonópolis0.94
Ceilândia0.97
Recent Form (Last 5)
União Rondonópolis União Rondonópolis
WWDLW
7 GF / 11 GA
Ceilândia Ceilândia
WLDWL
4 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.57
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
4
BTTS Yes
2
4
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

União Rondonópolis União Rondonópolis 7 matches
Ceilândia Ceilândia 7 matches
União Rondonópolis Statistic Ceilândia
2 Wins 2
2 Draws 1
3 Losses 4
7 Goals For 4
11 Goals Against 6
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.57
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
4 BTTS Yes 2
4 Over 1.5 2
4 Over 2.5 2
2 Over 3.5 0
1 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ceilândia. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ceilândia having the stronger overall control. Ceilândia arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

União Rondonópolis Analysis

União Rondonópolis come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 8 points from 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 7:11 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Oliveira Gil (1 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ceilândia Analysis

With 7 points from 7 games and a place of 5, Ceilândia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 4:6, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, União Rondonópolis won 0 times, Ceilândia won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:6 from União Rondonópolis's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (71.2%)
H2H summary: União Rondonópolis wins 0, draws 1, Ceilândia wins 3

Standings

Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)