12.09.2026 20:15
Estadio 25 de Noviembre

UCV Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 43.3%
Odds 4.58
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.76
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
43.3%
4.58
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
1.76
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
73.9%
1.26
HT / FT Home / Home
-
8.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
15.00
Probability Distribution
UCV Moquegua Win 43.3%
Draw 17.9%
Sporting Cristal Win 38.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
UCV Moquegua1.1
Sporting Cristal1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
WWDLW
23 GF / 37 GA
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
WLDWL
56 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
1.56
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
11
BTTS Yes
23
13
Over 2.5
22
3.28
Shots on Goal
4.74

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 26 matches
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 36 matches
UCV Moquegua Statistic Sporting Cristal
6 Wins 13
7 Draws 7
13 Losses 16
23 Goals For 56
37 Goals Against 52
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
11 BTTS Yes 23
18 Over 1.5 30
13 Over 2.5 22
5 Over 3.5 14
7 Clean Sheets 9
12 Failed To Score 5
3.28 Shots On Goal 4.74
10.12 Total Shots 13.97
3.12 Corners 5.51
39.4% Ball Possession 56.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sporting Cristal. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

UCV Moquegua sit 15 with 25 points after 24 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 11 defeats with a 23:33 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Edgar Lastre (6 goals), Bryan Angulo (3 goals), Jeferson Collazos (3 goals), with creative support from Edgar Lastre (4 assists), Yorman Zapata (4 assists), Nicolas Amasifuen (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sporting Cristal Analysis

Sporting Cristal sit 10 with 29 points after 24 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, while the 38:38 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Yoshimar Yotún (3 goals), Gustavo Cazonatti (3 goals), Felipe Vizeu (3 goals), with creative support from Yoshimar Yotún (6 assists), Santiago González (3 assists), Maxloren Castro (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, UCV Moquegua won 1 times, Sporting Cristal won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from UCV Moquegua's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.1%)
Predicted formations: UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1 / Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: UCV Moquegua wins 1, draws 0, Sporting Cristal wins 0

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 8 2 41:16 25 53
D L D W D
2 25 13 7 5 41:26 15 46
D W W W D
3 25 13 6 6 35:23 12 45
W W W D W
4 25 12 6 7 43:28 15 42
W L D W L
5 25 13 3 9 38:36 2 42
W W L W L
6 25 12 5 8 34:42 -8 41
L L L L D
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 25 10 7 8 37:31 6 37
W W W D W
9 25 9 7 9 27:25 2 34
L W W D D
10 25 9 5 11 43:38 5 32
W L L W D
11 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
12 25 7 9 9 34:35 -1 30
D L W L W
13 25 8 5 12 22:27 -5 29
L W W W D
14 25 8 5 12 33:42 -9 29
W W L L D
15 25 6 7 12 23:35 -12 25
L L W D L
16 25 6 6 13 38:49 -11 24
L W L L W
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2