PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio 25 de Noviembre

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 42.9%
Odds 2.77
BTTS
No
Probability 65.8%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds 1.52
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
42.9%
2.77
BTTS No
65.8%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
1.52
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.5%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 0-1
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
UCV Moquegua Win 39.6%
Draw 17.5%
Sport Boys Win 42.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
UCV Moquegua0.93
Sport Boys1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
WWDLW
19 GF / 30 GA
Sport Boys Sport Boys
WLDWL
22 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
0.86
Average Goals Scored
0.96
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.04
9
BTTS Yes
8
12
Over 2.5
7
3.38
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 22 matches
Sport Boys Sport Boys 23 matches
UCV Moquegua Statistic Sport Boys
5 Wins 8
6 Draws 6
11 Losses 9
19 Goals For 22
30 Goals Against 24
0.86 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.04
9 BTTS Yes 8
14 Over 1.5 11
12 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 11
11 Failed To Score 7
3.38 Shots On Goal 4
10.33 Total Shots 13.19
3.29 Corners 4.62
39.5% Ball Possession 50%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sport Boys. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with UCV Moquegua expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Sport Boys in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sport Boys having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

With 18 points from 17 games and a place of 14, UCV Moquegua still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 17:24, reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their threat comes through Edgar Lastre (5 goals), Jeferson Collazos (3 goals), Cristian Mejia (2 goals), with creative support from Edgar Lastre (3 assists), Yorman Zapata (2 assists), Nicolas Amasifuen (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sport Boys Analysis

Sport Boys sit 11 with 20 points after 17 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 15:19 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Luciano Nequecaur (3 goals), Hansell Riojas (2 goals), Luis Urruti (1 goals), with creative support from Jostin Alarcón (2 assists), Luciano Nequecaur (1 assists), Luis Urruti (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, UCV Moquegua won 0 times, Sport Boys won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:0 from UCV Moquegua's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.6%)
Predicted formations: UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1 / Sport Boys 4-3-3
H2H summary: UCV Moquegua wins 0, draws 1, Sport Boys wins 0
Last matches: UCV Moquegua
09.08.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
2
L
02.08.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
26.07.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
UTC Cajamarca
0
0
D
18.07.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes Unidos
2
2
D
29.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
23.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Universitario
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
ADT
2
2
D
03.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Lima
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
2
1
W
20.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cienciano
1
2
L
14.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Juan Pablo II College
3
0
W
03.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
21.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cusco
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Atletico
0
3
L
07.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Boys
0
0
D
23.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
4
L
06.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
UTC Cajamarca
2
3
L
Last matches: Sport Boys
09.08.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
01.08.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
25.07.26
Pri
Sport Boys
ADT
2
0
W
19.07.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
30.05.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Comerciantes Unidos
1
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Sport Boys
UTC Cajamarca
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Cusco
1
0
W
12.05.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Universitario
0
0
D
02.05.26
Pri
Sport Boys
FC Cajamarca
2
3
L
26.04.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Juan Pablo II College
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Alianza Atletico
1
0
W
15.04.26
Pri
Sport Boys
FBC Melgar
1
3
L
04.04.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Deportivo Garcilaso
2
3
L
22.03.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Sport Huancayo
3
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Sporting Cristal
0
3
L
09.03.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Cienciano
1
3
L
01.03.26
Pri
Sport Boys
UCV Moquegua
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
07.02.26
Pri
Sport Boys
ADT
0
1
L
H2H: UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys
01.03.26
H2H
Sport Boys
UCV Moquegua
0
0
D
Last matches: UCV Moquegua
02.08.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
18.07.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes Unidos
2
2
D
23.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Universitario
0
0
D
09.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
ADT
2
2
D
25.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
2
1
W
14.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Juan Pablo II College
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cusco
1
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
23.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
06.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
UTC Cajamarca
2
3
L
Last matches: Sport Boys
01.08.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
19.07.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
23.05.26
Pri
Sport Boys
UTC Cajamarca
0
0
D
02.05.26
Pri
Sport Boys
FC Cajamarca
2
3
L
19.04.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Alianza Atletico
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Deportivo Garcilaso
2
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Sporting Cristal
0
3
L
09.03.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Cienciano
1
3
L
21.02.26
Pri
Sport Boys
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
Sport Boys
ADT
0
1
L
17.01.26
Fri
Sport Boys
Universitario
1
0
W
Showing odds from: Bet365
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.77
Draw 2.90
Home 2.69
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.35
Draw 1.95
Home 3.24
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.25 1.29
Over 1.5 1.44
Over 1.75 1.58
Over 2.0 1.81
Over 2.25 2.13
Over 2.5 2.42
Over 2.75 2.89
Over 3.0 3.49
Under 1.25 3.41
Under 1.5 2.66
Under 1.75 2.34
Under 2.0 2.00
Under 2.25 1.69
Under 2.5 1.52
Under 2.75 1.38
Under 3.0 1.28
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.80
Draw 3.10
Home 2.45
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 2.00
Home 3.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 2.25
Home 3.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.44
Over 2.5 2.35
Over 3.5 4.50
Over 4.5 11.00
Over 5.5 23.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 2.62
Under 2.5 1.57
Under 3.5 1.18
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 3.05
Home 2.75
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.06
Home 3.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.80
Draw 2.35
Home 3.10
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.38
Over 2.0 1.64
Over 2.25 1.92
Over 2.5 2.18
Over 2.75 2.55
Over 3.0 3.25
Over 3.25 3.60
Over 3.5 3.90
Over 3.75 4.90
Over 4.0 6.75
Under 1.5 2.75
Under 2.0 2.07
Under 2.25 1.76
Under 2.5 1.58
Under 2.75 1.43
Under 3.0 1.28
Under 3.25 1.23
Under 3.5 1.20
Under 3.75 1.13
Under 4.0 1.07

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
D W D W D
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
D W L W D
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
L W L L W
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
D L W W W
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
L D W W W
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
L W L W W
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
W W W L W
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
W L W L L
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
W L D D L
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
D L L L L
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
D W W L W
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
D W L W L
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
D L D L D
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
L D D D L
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
W L L D D
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
D L L W W
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
D W W L L
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
D L W D L
Play-offs