PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
25.04.2026 18:00
Estadio 25 de Noviembre
Referee: Joel Alarcon, Peru
UCV Moquegua
Match Timeline
FC Cajamarca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
R. Chipao · Assist: C. Enciso
UCV Moquegua
VAR
39'
Hairo Timaná
FC Cajamarca
🟥
40'
Hairo Timaná
FC Cajamarca
49'
C. Mejia · Assist: N. Amasifuen
UCV Moquegua
🔄
62'
J. C. Vega ↔ B. Palacios
FC Cajamarca
🔄
64'
N. Chavez ↔ R. Torres
UCV Moquegua
🔄
64'
E. Lastre ↔ A. Davila
UCV Moquegua
🟨
68'
Carlos Meza
FC Cajamarca
73'
Hernán Barcos
FC Cajamarca
🔄
77'
C. Enciso ↔ J. Lojas
UCV Moquegua
81'
B. Palacios
FC Cajamarca
🔄
83'
Y. Zapata ↔ K. Ruiz
UCV Moquegua
🔄
83'
A. Perleche ↔ E. Montenegro
UCV Moquegua
🔄
90+4'
S. Enciso ↔ S. Peralta
FC Cajamarca
🔄
90+5'
P. Lavandeira Hernandez ↔ J. Betancourt
FC Cajamarca

UCV Moquegua vs FC Cajamarca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 77.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
77.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
80.5%
-
Probability Distribution
UCV Moquegua Win 87.4%
Draw 0%
FC Cajamarca Win 12.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
UCV Moquegua1.3
FC Cajamarca1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
WWDLW
12 GF / 19 GA
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
WLDWL
14 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.75
5
BTTS Yes
6
8
Over 2.5
6
3.36
Shots on Goal
2.45

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 12 matches
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 12 matches
UCV Moquegua Statistic FC Cajamarca
4 Wins 2
1 Draws 3
7 Losses 7
12 Goals For 14
19 Goals Against 21
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.75
5 BTTS Yes 6
9 Over 1.5 8
8 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 0
5 Failed To Score 6
3.36 Shots On Goal 2.45
9.36 Total Shots 7.27
3.18 Corners 2.73
38.5% Ball Possession 40%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FC Cajamarca. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. UCV Moquegua arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 11 with 13 points compared to FC Cajamarca in 18 on 6, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

UCV Moquegua approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 13 points from 11 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 8:15 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Edgar Lastre (4 goals), J. Collazos (3 goals), K. Ruiz (2 goals), with creative support from Edgar Lastre (2 assists), N. Chavez (2 assists), Ricardo Chipao  (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Cajamarca Analysis

FC Cajamarca approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 6 points from 11 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 10:17, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through H. Barcos (7 goals), A. Rodriguez (2 goals), B. Palacios (1 goals), with creative support from T. Andrade (3 assists), H. Barcos (1 assists), A. Rodriguez (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, UCV Moquegua won 3 times, FC Cajamarca won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:6 from UCV Moquegua's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1 / FC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: UCV Moquegua wins 3, draws 0, FC Cajamarca wins 2

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 15 7 2 40:15 25 52
L D W D W
2 24 13 6 5 39:24 15 45
W W W D L
3 24 12 6 6 31:21 10 42
W W D W W
4 24 12 5 7 34:37 -3 41
L L L D W
5 24 11 6 7 40:28 12 39
L D W L D
6 24 12 3 9 36:36 0 39
W L W L W
7 24 11 4 9 39:35 4 37
L L D L W
8 24 9 7 8 34:29 5 34
W W D W L
9 24 9 7 8 26:23 3 34
W W D D W
10 24 8 5 11 38:38 0 29
L L W D W
11 24 7 8 9 32:33 -1 29
L W L W L
12 24 8 5 11 20:23 -3 29
W W W D L
13 24 7 6 11 35:50 -15 27
W W L D L
14 24 7 5 12 31:41 -10 26
W L L D W
15 24 6 7 11 23:33 -10 25
L W D L D
16 24 6 6 12 36:44 -8 24
W L L W L
17 24 5 7 12 27:36 -9 22
L L D D L
18 24 4 8 12 27:42 -15 15
L L L D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2