18.07.2026 16:00
Estadio 25 de Noviembre
Referee: J. Espinoza
UCV Moquegua
Match Timeline
Comerciantes Unidos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
E. Lastre · Assist: Y. Zapata
UCV Moquegua
🟨
4'
Juan Rodríguez
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
7'
Juan Diego Lojas
UCV Moquegua
15'
E. Lastre · Assist: Y. Zapata
UCV Moquegua
31'
M. Sen · Assist: J. Herrera
Comerciantes Unidos
VAR
44'
Aldair Perleche
UCV Moquegua
🟨
45+2'
Jimmy Jiménez
UCV Moquegua
49'
J. Herrera · Assist: M. P. Carpio Ferro
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
55'
Bryan Angulo ↔ J. Collazos
UCV Moquegua
🔄
55'
J. Jimenez ↔ N. Amasifuen
UCV Moquegua
🟨
58'
Allonso Davila
UCV Moquegua
🔄
63'
E. Lastre ↔ C. Ramirez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
67'
M. P. Carpio Ferro ↔ W. Ayovi
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
74'
J. Herrera ↔ O. Pinto
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
75'
M. Sen ↔ E. M. Perez Azambuya
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
84'
C. Mejia ↔ N. Chavez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
84'
A. Davila ↔ K. Ruiz
UCV Moquegua
🔄
87'
J. Parodi ↔ F. Alcedo
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
87'
R. Vilca ↔ J. Olivares
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
90+2'
Yorman Zapata
UCV Moquegua

UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.4%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.4%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
UCV Moquegua Win 63.4%
Draw 6.9%
Comerciantes Unidos Win 29.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
UCV Moquegua1.03
Comerciantes Unidos1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
WWDLW
17 GF / 26 GA
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos
WLDWL
19 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
1
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
8
BTTS Yes
10
11
Over 2.5
6
3.41
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 18 matches
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 19 matches
UCV Moquegua Statistic Comerciantes Unidos
5 Wins 5
3 Draws 7
10 Losses 7
17 Goals For 19
26 Goals Against 22
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
8 BTTS Yes 10
12 Over 1.5 11
11 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 6
3.41 Shots On Goal 4
9.94 Total Shots 12.65
3.29 Corners 3.76
40.1% Ball Possession 43.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Comerciantes Unidos. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with UCV Moquegua expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Comerciantes Unidos in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Comerciantes Unidos having the stronger overall control.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

UCV Moquegua sit 14 with 18 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 17:24, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through Edgar Lastre (5 goals), J. Collazos (4 goals), C. Mejia (2 goals), with creative support from Edgar Lastre (3 assists), Ricardo Chipao  (2 assists), N. Chavez (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Comerciantes Unidos Analysis

From their first 17 matches, Comerciantes Unidos have collected 21 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Their overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 18:20 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by Matias Sen (5 goals), Juan Rodríguez (2 goals), Maximiliano Perez (2 goals), with creative support from R. Vilca (3 assists), J. Herrera (2 assists), A. Cossio (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, UCV Moquegua won 0 times, Comerciantes Unidos won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:3 from UCV Moquegua's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.1%)
Predicted formations: UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1 / Comerciantes Unidos 5-4-1
H2H summary: UCV Moquegua wins 0, draws 1, Comerciantes Unidos wins 1

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 44:18 26 56
W L D L D
2 27 14 7 6 43:31 12 49
L W D W W
3 27 14 6 7 39:24 15 48
W L W W W
4 27 13 7 7 45:29 16 46
D W W L D
5 27 14 3 10 40:38 2 45
W L W W L
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 27 11 7 9 40:35 5 40
W L W W W
9 27 11 5 11 48:40 8 38
W W W L L
10 27 10 8 9 29:26 3 38
D W L W W
11 27 10 5 12 37:44 -7 35
W W W W L
12 27 9 7 11 42:52 -10 34
W W D W W
13 27 9 5 13 26:31 -5 32
L W L W W
14 27 7 9 11 35:38 -3 30
L L D L W
15 27 7 6 14 41:52 -11 27
L W L W L
16 27 6 7 14 24:41 -17 25
L L L L W
17 26 5 7 14 27:41 -14 22
L L L L D
18 27 4 8 15 32:50 -18 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2