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25.10.2026 18:15
Estadio 25 de Noviembre
Referee: Edwin Ordonez
UCV Moquegua
Match Timeline
Alianza Lima
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
61'
Jeferson Collazos ↔ Brayan Angulo
UCV Moquegua
🔄
62'
Nicolas Chavez ↔ A. Lecaros
UCV Moquegua
🔄
62'
Gianfranco Chavez ↔ Cristian Carbajal
Alianza Lima
🔄
63'
Kevin Quevedo ↔ Gaspar Gentile
Alianza Lima
🟨
72'
Yorman Zapata
UCV Moquegua
🟨
72'
Fernando Gaibor
Alianza Lima
🔄
74'
Federico Girotti ↔ Luis Ramos
Alianza Lima
🔄
74'
J García ↔ Alan Martín Cantero
Alianza Lima
🔄
82'
Edgar Lastre ↔ Diego Ramírez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
86'
Fernando Gaibor ↔ Jesús Castillo
Alianza Lima
⚽
87'
Alan Martín Cantero · Assist: Jairo Vélez
Alianza Lima
🟨
89'
Pablo Adrián Guede Barriero
Alianza Lima
🔄
90+1'
Cristian Mejía ↔ Y. López
UCV Moquegua

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 83.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
83.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
UCV Moquegua Win 11.5%
Draw 5.4%
Alianza Lima Win 83.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
UCV Moquegua0.8
Alianza Lima1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
W L L L L
2 GF / 10 GA
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
W W L W L
9 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
0.83
Average Goals Scored
1.59
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
0.76
12
BTTS Yes
18
15
Over 2.5
14
3.24
Shots on Goal
5.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 30 matches
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 34 matches
UCV Moquegua Statistic Alianza Lima
7 Wins 19
7 Draws 9
16 Losses 6
25 Goals For 54
45 Goals Against 26
0.83 Avg Goals Scored 1.59
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 0.76
12 BTTS Yes 18
21 Over 1.5 24
15 Over 2.5 14
6 Over 3.5 5
8 Clean Sheets 12
14 Failed To Score 5
3.24 Shots On Goal 5.03
10.38 Total Shots 15.94
3.38 Corners 4.68
42% Ball Possession 56.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Alianza Lima's more proactive style and UCV Moquegua's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Alianza Lima carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 59 points while UCV Moquegua sit 17 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. UCV Moquegua have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Alianza Lima. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

UCV Moquegua approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 25 points from 28 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 24:43 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on E. Lastre (6 goals), R. Chipao (3 goals), B. Angulo (3 goals), with creative support from E. Lastre (5 assists), Y. Zapata (4 assists), N. Amasifuén (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Alianza Lima Analysis

Alianza Lima come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 59 points from 28 matches. The record of 17 wins, 8 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 46:19 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Castillo (15 goals), J. Vélez (4 goals), F. Girotti (3 goals), with creative support from J. Vélez (6 assists), E. Castillo (3 assists), M. Huamán (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, UCV Moquegua won 0 times, Alianza Lima won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:2 from UCV Moquegua's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.6%)
Predicted formations: UCV Moquegua 4-4-2 / Alianza Lima 4-4-2
H2H summary: UCV Moquegua wins 0, draws 0, Alianza Lima wins 1

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 20 8 4 53:23 30 68
W L W W W
2 32 17 9 6 57:37 20 60
D W W W D
3 33 16 9 8 56:38 18 57
W L D W W
4 32 16 6 10 50:35 15 54
W L W L L
5 33 15 6 12 63:48 15 51
D W W L W
6 33 16 3 14 46:47 -1 51
L L W W L
7 33 15 5 13 54:46 8 50
L L W L W
8 33 15 5 13 48:49 -1 50
W W L W W
9 33 14 7 12 49:48 1 49
L W W L L
10 32 13 8 11 39:51 -12 47
D L L W D
11 32 12 9 11 37:35 2 45
D W W L L
12 33 11 8 14 48:59 -11 41
L L W L W
13 33 10 7 16 32:41 -9 37
W L L D L
14 32 8 12 12 44:47 -3 36
D D W L D
15 33 7 11 15 36:48 -12 32
D D W D L
16 33 8 7 18 46:65 -19 31
W L L L L
17 32 7 8 17 25:46 -21 29
D L L W L
18 32 5 8 19 38:58 -20 18
L W L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2