30.08.2026 16:00
Estadio 25 de Noviembre
Referee: Edwin Ordonez, Peru
UCV Moquegua
Match Timeline
Alianza Atletico
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
José Ingratti
Alianza Atletico
20'
Bryan Angulo · Assist: E. Lastre
UCV Moquegua
24'
J. Molina
Alianza Atletico
🟨
33'
Diego Ramírez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
46'
D. Ramirez ↔ N. Chavez
UCV Moquegua
🟨
49'
Román Suárez
Alianza Atletico
🟨
51'
Ariel Muñoz
Alianza Atletico
56'
J. Lujan
Alianza Atletico
🔄
59'
R. Chipao ↔ Y. Lopez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
59'
J. Ingratti ↔ G. A. Larios Saavedra
Alianza Atletico
61'
C. Penilla · Assist: S. Fernandez
Alianza Atletico
VAR
67'
Bryan Angulo
UCV Moquegua
🟥
68'
Yorman Zapata
UCV Moquegua
🔄
76'
A. Munoz ↔ J. Perez
Alianza Atletico
🔄
76'
C. Penilla ↔ J. del Castillo
Alianza Atletico
🔄
81'
E. Montenegro ↔ J. Jimenez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
81'
Bryan Angulo ↔ A. Davila
UCV Moquegua
🔄
83'
H. Lupu ↔ F. Flores
Alianza Atletico
🔄
83'
J. Molina ↔ V. Robaldo
Alianza Atletico
90'
J. del Castillo · Assist: G. A. Larios Saavedra
Alianza Atletico

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 65.1%
Odds 1.53
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 1.66
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
65.1%
1.53
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
1.66
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
75%
1.26
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
5.00
Correct Score 1-1
-
6.00
Probability Distribution
UCV Moquegua Win 34.9%
Draw 25.3%
Alianza Atletico Win 39.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
UCV Moquegua1.07
Alianza Atletico1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
WWDLW
22 GF / 31 GA
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico
WLDWL
30 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
0.92
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
10
BTTS Yes
14
12
Over 2.5
12
3.35
Shots on Goal
4.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 24 matches
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 24 matches
UCV Moquegua Statistic Alianza Atletico
6 Wins 8
7 Draws 7
11 Losses 9
22 Goals For 30
31 Goals Against 31
0.92 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
10 BTTS Yes 14
16 Over 1.5 17
12 Over 2.5 12
4 Over 3.5 8
7 Clean Sheets 6
11 Failed To Score 6
3.35 Shots On Goal 4.78
10.13 Total Shots 13.35
3.09 Corners 3.35
39% Ball Possession 45%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Alianza Atletico's more proactive style and UCV Moquegua's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Alianza Atletico. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

UCV Moquegua are currently 13 in the standings with 25 points from 23 matches. The record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 22:29 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Edgar Lastre (6 goals), Jeferson Collazos (3 goals), Cristian Mejia (2 goals), with creative support from Yorman Zapata (4 assists), Edgar Lastre (3 assists), Nicolas Amasifuen (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Alianza Atletico Analysis

Alianza Atletico are currently 8 in the standings with 31 points from 23 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, while the 30:28 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Cristian Penilla (4 goals), Valentín Robaldo (2 goals), Guillermo Larios (2 goals), with creative support from Cristian Penilla (2 assists), Hernan Lupú (2 assists), Valentín Robaldo (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, UCV Moquegua won 0 times, Alianza Atletico won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:7 from UCV Moquegua's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (74.7%)
Predicted formations: UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1 / Alianza Atletico 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: UCV Moquegua wins 0, draws 0, Alianza Atletico wins 2

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2