CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Claro Arena
Referee: Diego Flores Seguel, Chile
U. Catolica
Match Timeline
Nublense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Matías Palavecino
U. Catolica
🟥
-5'
Matías Palavecino
U. Catolica
🟥
8'
Fernando Zuqui
U. Catolica
VAR
8'
Fernando Zuqui
U. Catolica
🟨
11'
Diego Sanhueza
Nublense
🟨
43'
Justo Giani
U. Catolica
🟨
45+3'
Matías Palavecino
U. Catolica
🔄
46'
D. Gonzalez ↔ S. Arancibia
U. Catolica
🔄
46'
J. Giani ↔ J. A. Martinez
U. Catolica
🔄
46'
D. Sanhueza ↔ G. Graciani
Nublense
48'
E. Calderon · Assist: L. Molina Canto
Nublense
🔄
65'
C. Montes ↔ D. Corral
U. Catolica
🔄
67'
E. Calderon ↔ I. Jeraldino
Nublense
🟨
72'
Lorenzo Reyes
Nublense
VAR
73'
Fernando Zampedri
U. Catolica
🟨
74'
Nicola Pérez
Nublense
75'
F. Zampedri
U. Catolica
🔄
76'
L. Molina Canto ↔ F. Ovelar
Nublense
🔄
76'
M. Rivera ↔ C. Mansilla
Nublense
🔄
81'
M. Palavecino ↔ G. Medel
U. Catolica
🔄
81'
M. Plaza ↔ F. Campos Mosqueira
Nublense
🟨
85'
Jimmy Martínez
U. Catolica
🟨
87'
Gary Medel
U. Catolica
88'
I. Jeraldino · Assist: F. Ovelar
Nublense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.2%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
67.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
U. Catolica Win 59.2%
Draw 3.7%
Nublense Win 37.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
U. Catolica1.63
Nublense1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
U. Catolica U. Catolica
WWDLW
63 GF / 43 GA
Nublense Nublense
WLDWL
33 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.97
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.34
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
19
BTTS Yes
12
23
Over 2.5
9
4.76
Shots on Goal
3.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

U. Catolica U. Catolica 32 matches
Nublense Nublense 24 matches
U. Catolica Statistic Nublense
18 Wins 11
5 Draws 9
9 Losses 4
63 Goals For 33
43 Goals Against 27
1.97 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.34 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
19 BTTS Yes 12
28 Over 1.5 15
23 Over 2.5 9
11 Over 3.5 7
8 Clean Sheets 10
6 Failed To Score 3
4.76 Shots On Goal 3.89
13.08 Total Shots 12.22
5.08 Corners 4.61
53.6% Ball Possession 45.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Nublense. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with U. Catolica expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Nublense in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nublense having the stronger overall control.

U. Catolica Analysis

U. Catolica approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 30 points after 18 outings. The return of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 40:26, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Fernando Zampedri (9 goals), Justo Giani (5 goals), Clemente Montes (3 goals), with creative support from Clemente Montes (3 assists), Matías Palavecino (3 assists), Cristián Cuevas (2 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Nublense Analysis

So far, Nublense have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 26 points from 17 matches. The record of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 22:21 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Matías Plaza (2 goals), Ignacio Jeraldino (2 goals), Lucas Molina (2 goals), with creative support from Matías Plaza (3 assists), Jovany Campusano (1 assists), Gabriel Graciani (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, U. Catolica won 6 times, Nublense won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:19 from U. Catolica's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.3%)
Predicted formations: U. Catolica 4-2-3-1 / Nublense 3-5-2
H2H summary: U. Catolica wins 6, draws 5, Nublense wins 4