CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Claro Arena

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.3%
Odds 1.49
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.66
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.3%
1.49
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.66
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.21
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.25
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
U. Catolica Win 78.3%
Draw 4.3%
D. La Serena Win 17.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
U. Catolica1.96
D. La Serena1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
U. Catolica U. Catolica
WWDLW
57 GF / 33 GA
D. La Serena D. La Serena
WLDWL
30 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
2.11
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.73
17
BTTS Yes
12
20
Over 2.5
12
4.9
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

U. Catolica U. Catolica 27 matches
D. La Serena D. La Serena 22 matches
U. Catolica Statistic D. La Serena
17 Wins 6
3 Draws 7
7 Losses 9
57 Goals For 30
33 Goals Against 38
2.11 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.73
17 BTTS Yes 12
23 Over 1.5 14
20 Over 2.5 12
10 Over 3.5 10
7 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 6
4.9 Shots On Goal 4
13.14 Total Shots 10.6
5.05 Corners 4.13
53.4% Ball Possession 48.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around U. Catolica's more proactive style and D. La Serena's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward D. La Serena having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. U. Catolica arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 26 points compared to D. La Serena in 12 on 18, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring D. La Serena.

U. Catolica Analysis

U. Catolica come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 26 points after 15 matches. They have recorded 8 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with a 35:20 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on F. Zampedri (15 goals), J. Giani (8 goals), C. Montes (3 goals), with creative support from Matías Palavecino (5 assists), C. Cuevas (5 assists), C. Montes (4 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

D. La Serena Analysis

So far, D. La Serena have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 18 points from 15 matches. The record of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 21:25 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Vargas (5 goals), F. Chamorro (4 goals), Diego Rubio (3 goals), with creative support from J. Vargas (5 assists), Diego Rubio (3 assists), A. Henriquez (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, U. Catolica won 8 times, D. La Serena won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:13 from U. Catolica's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
H2H summary: U. Catolica wins 8, draws 1, D. La Serena wins 3
Last matches: U. Catolica
11.07.26
Cop
U. Catolica
San Luis
0
4
L
05.07.26
Cop
U. Catolica
Deportes Copiapo
2
1
W
01.07.26
Cop
U. Catolica
Everton de Vina
2
1
W
28.06.26
Cop
U. Catolica
San Luis
4
2
W
24.06.26
Cop
U. Catolica
Everton de Vina
3
1
W
20.06.26
Cop
U. Catolica
Deportes Copiapo
3
0
W
14.06.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Universidad de Concepcion
5
1
W
31.05.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Huachipato
3
0
W
29.05.26
CON
U. Catolica
Boca Juniors
1
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Colo Colo
1
2
L
22.05.26
CON
U. Catolica
Barcelona SC
2
0
W
17.05.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Deportes Limache
2
0
W
07.05.26
CON
U. Catolica
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
30.04.26
CON
U. Catolica
Barcelona SC
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Universidad de Chile
0
1
L
21.04.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Union La Calera
1
2
L
15.04.26
CON
U. Catolica
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
U. Catolica
A. Italiano
4
3
W
08.04.26
CON
U. Catolica
Boca Juniors
1
2
L
02.04.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Palestino
6
1
W
Last matches: D. La Serena
12.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobreloa
0
1
L
05.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Antofagasta
2
4
L
01.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
0
W
28.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobreloa
2
1
W
24.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobresal
0
0
D
21.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Antofagasta
2
4
L
13.06.26
Pri
D. La Serena
A. Italiano
1
1
D
30.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Colo Colo
2
4
L
24.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Deportes Limache
4
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Palestino
1
5
L
26.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Huachipato
0
0
D
19.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Concepción
3
3
D
11.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Everton de Vina
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Universidad de Chile
0
4
L
15.03.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Nublense
2
2
D
06.03.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Union La Calera
3
0
W
27.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Universidad de Concepcion
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Coquimbo Unido
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
O'Higgins
0
1
L
H2H: U. Catolica vs D. La Serena
01.02.26
H2H
D. La Serena
U. Catolica
2
2
D
08.11.25
H2H
D. La Serena
U. Catolica
0
1
W
25.05.25
H2H
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
1
3
L
23.03.23
H2H
D. La Serena
U. Catolica
0
2
W
10.09.22
H2H
D. La Serena
U. Catolica
0
4
W
10.04.22
H2H
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
0
2
L
13.11.21
H2H
D. La Serena
U. Catolica
0
2
W
08.08.21
H2H
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
4
3
W
05.02.21
H2H
D. La Serena
U. Catolica
1
2
W
01.11.20
H2H
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
3
0
W
10.07.19
H2H
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
2
1
W
09.06.19
H2H
D. La Serena
U. Catolica
1
0
L
Last matches: U. Catolica
05.07.26
Cop
U. Catolica
Deportes Copiapo
2
1
W
01.07.26
Cop
U. Catolica
Everton de Vina
2
1
W
28.06.26
Cop
U. Catolica
San Luis
4
2
W
14.06.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Universidad de Concepcion
5
1
W
24.05.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Colo Colo
1
2
L
22.05.26
CON
U. Catolica
Barcelona SC
2
0
W
07.05.26
CON
U. Catolica
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
21.04.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Union La Calera
1
2
L
08.04.26
CON
U. Catolica
Boca Juniors
1
2
L
02.04.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Palestino
6
1
W
14.03.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Everton de Vina
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Coquimbo Unido
3
1
W
08.02.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Concepción
2
0
W
03.04.25
Cop
U. Catolica
San Luis
2
3
L
21.03.25
Cop
U. Catolica
Union La Calera
0
1
L
26.01.25
Cop
U. Catolica
Everton de Vina
1
0
W
29.06.24
Cop
U. Catolica
Santiago Wanderers
2
2
D
16.08.23
Cop
U. Catolica
Colo Colo
0
0
D
10.08.23
Cop
U. Catolica
Everton de Vina
0
0
D
02.07.23
Cop
U. Catolica
Santiago Wanderers
2
0
W
H2H at home: U. Catolica
25.05.25
H2H
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
1
3
L
10.04.22
H2H
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
0
2
L
08.08.21
H2H
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
4
3
W
01.11.20
H2H
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
3
0
W
10.07.19
H2H
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
2
1
W
Last matches: D. La Serena
12.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobreloa
0
1
L
01.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
0
W
21.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Antofagasta
2
4
L
13.06.26
Pri
D. La Serena
A. Italiano
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Palestino
1
5
L
19.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Concepción
3
3
D
05.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Universidad de Chile
0
4
L
15.03.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Nublense
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
0
W
07.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
O'Higgins
0
1
L
07.09.25
Cop
D. La Serena
Deportes Limache
0
2
L
16.07.25
Cop
D. La Serena
Santiago Wanderers
5
1
W
06.06.25
Cop
D. La Serena
San Luis
1
3
L
22.03.25
Cop
D. La Serena
San Marcos de Arica
0
1
L
02.02.25
Cop
D. La Serena
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
27.01.25
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobresal
2
1
W
16.06.24
Cop
D. La Serena
Trasandino
2
2
D
24.06.23
Cop
D. La Serena
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
01.04.23
Cop
D. La Serena
Unión Compañías
3
1
W
18.06.22
Cop
D. La Serena
Universidad de Concepcion
3
4
L
H2H away: D. La Serena
25.05.25
H2H
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
1
3
W
10.04.22
H2H
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
0
2
W
08.08.21
H2H
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
4
3
L
01.11.20
H2H
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
3
0
L
10.07.19
H2H
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
2
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.15
Draw 4.62
Home 1.49
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.33
Draw 2.60
Home 1.96
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.21
Over 2.25 1.48
Over 2.5 1.66
Over 2.75 1.82
Over 3.0 2.07
Over 3.25 2.35
Over 3.5 2.61
Over 4.5 4.73
Under 1.5 4.47
Under 2.25 2.71
Under 2.5 2.28
Under 2.75 2.04
Under 3.0 1.79
Under 3.25 1.62
Under 3.5 1.50
Under 4.5 1.19
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 4.33
Home 1.48
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 2.50
Home 1.95
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.75
Home 1.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 2.5 1.67
Over 3.5 2.62
Over 4.5 5.00
Over 5.5 10.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 15.00
Under 1.5 4.33
Under 2.5 2.15
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 5.5 1.06
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.29
Draw 4.35
Home 1.46
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.06
Draw 2.35
Home 1.96
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.63
Draw 2.88
Home 1.74
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.25 1.06
Over 1.5 1.14
Over 1.75 1.18
Over 2.0 1.23
Over 2.25 1.40
Over 2.5 1.56
Over 2.75 1.72
Over 3.0 1.95
Over 3.25 2.20
Over 3.5 2.53
Over 3.75 2.93
Over 4.0 3.72
Over 4.25 4.08
Over 4.5 4.40
Over 4.75 5.55
Over 5.0 7.90
Over 5.25 8.10
Over 5.5 8.60
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 12.80
Under 1.0 9.30
Under 1.25 6.16
Under 1.5 4.40
Under 1.75 3.92
Under 2.0 3.42
Under 2.25 2.56
Under 2.5 2.15
Under 2.75 1.95
Under 3.0 1.72
Under 3.25 1.54
Under 3.5 1.49
Under 3.75 1.33
Under 4.0 1.21
Under 4.25 1.16
Under 4.5 1.14
Under 4.75 1.08
Under 5.0 1.02
Under 5.25 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 4.30
Home 1.47
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 2.50
Home 1.89
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.88
Home 1.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.5 1.58
Over 3.0 1.95
Over 3.25 2.20
Over 3.5 2.45
Over 3.75 2.88
Over 4.0 3.65
Over 4.5 4.25
Under 1.5 4.25
Under 2.5 2.20
Under 3.0 1.73
Under 3.25 1.57
Under 3.5 1.46
Under 3.75 1.34
Under 4.0 1.22
Under 4.5 1.17

Standings

Primera
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 12 0 3 29:12 17 36
W W W W W
2 15 8 2 5 35:20 15 26
W W L W L
3 15 6 6 3 17:10 7 24
W D W L W
4 15 7 3 5 22:18 4 24
D W D W L
5 15 7 3 5 23:21 2 24
W D W W L
6 15 7 2 6 23:22 1 23
D L L W D
7 15 6 4 5 19:15 4 22
L W D W W
8 15 5 7 3 18:19 -1 22
D W D L L
9 15 6 3 6 30:23 7 21
L L L L D
10 15 6 2 7 19:22 -3 20
L D L L W
11 15 5 4 6 13:26 -13 19
L D D W L
12 15 4 6 5 21:25 -4 18
D L W L D
13 15 4 4 7 18:21 -3 16
D D W L D
14 15 4 2 9 14:23 -9 14
W L W L W
15 15 4 1 10 19:29 -10 13
L L L W L
16 15 3 3 9 14:28 -14 12
D D L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga de Ascenso