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28.09.2026 18:45
Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu
Referee: Michael Oliver, England
Türkiye
Match Timeline
Italy
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
Alessandro Bastoni
Italy
⚽
22'
Davide Frattesi
Italy
⚽
27'
Michael Kayode · Assist: Pio Esposito
Italy
🟨
38'
Can Uzun
Türkiye
🔄
46'
Orkun Kökçü ↔ İsmail Yüksek
Türkiye
🔄
46'
Can Uzun ↔ Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Türkiye
🔄
46'
Merih Demiral ↔ Abdülkerim Bardakcı
Türkiye
🔄
46'
Giacomo Raspadori ↔ Nicolò Cambiaghi
Italy
⚽
47'
Barış Alper Yılmaz · Assist: Oğuz Aydın
Türkiye
⚽
50'
Pio Esposito
Italy
🟨
54'
Barış Alper Yılmaz
Türkiye
🔄
63'
Sebastiano Esposito ↔ Issa Doumbia
Italy
🟨
72'
Ozan Kabak
Türkiye
🔄
75'
Pio Esposito ↔ Gianluca Scamacca
Italy
🔄
76'
Salih Özcan ↔ Demir Ege Tıknaz
Türkiye
🔄
76'
Nicolò Fagioli ↔ Alessandro Romano
Italy
🔄
80'
Barış Alper Yılmaz ↔ Deniz Gül
Türkiye
🔄
82'
Davide Frattesi ↔ Giovanni Di Lorenzo
Italy

Türkiye vs Italy Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 44.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
44.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Türkiye Win 41.5%
Draw 14.3%
Italy Win 44.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Türkiye1.17
Italy0.87
Recent Form (Last 5)
Türkiye Türkiye
WWDLW
9 GF / 7 GA
Italy Italy
WLDWL
2 GF / 2 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
0.67
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
0.67
2
BTTS Yes
0
3
Over 2.5
0
5.83
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Türkiye Türkiye 6 matches
Italy Italy 3 matches
Türkiye Statistic Italy
3 Wins 2
0 Draws 0
3 Losses 1
9 Goals For 2
7 Goals Against 2
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 0.67
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67
2 BTTS Yes 0
4 Over 1.5 1
3 Over 2.5 0
2 Over 3.5 0
1 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 1
5.83 Shots On Goal 4
19.83 Total Shots 15.33
8.67 Corners 4.67
57.7% Ball Possession 50%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Türkiye won 0 times, Italy won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:6 from Türkiye's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.7%)
Predicted formations: Türkiye 3-4-3 / Italy 4-3-3
H2H summary: Türkiye wins 0, draws 1, Italy wins 2

Standings

League A - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 4 3 1 0 7:2 5 10
W D W W
2
Italy Away
4 2 1 1 8:5 3 7
W D W L
3 4 2 0 2 6:5 1 6
L W L W
4 4 0 0 4 2:11 -9 0
L L L L
Play Offs: Quarter-finals
Possible Play-off