LATVIA VIRSLIGA
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.9%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tukums Win 65.9%
Draw 12.6%
Ogre United Win 21.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tukums1.91
Ogre United1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tukums Tukums
WWDLW
46 GF / 64 GA
Ogre United Ogre United
WLDWL
27 GF / 74 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
0.93
2.06
Average Goals Conceded
2.55
26
BTTS Yes
18
24
Over 2.5
19
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tukums Tukums 31 matches
Ogre United Ogre United 29 matches
Tukums Statistic Ogre United
4 Wins 3
10 Draws 5
17 Losses 21
46 Goals For 27
64 Goals Against 74
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 0.93
2.06 Avg Goals Conceded 2.55
26 BTTS Yes 18
30 Over 1.5 26
24 Over 2.5 19
14 Over 3.5 14
1 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ogre United having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ogre United.

Tukums Analysis

Tukums sit 9 with 20 points after 27 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 40:54, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ogre United Analysis

Ogre United sit 10 with 14 points after 26 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 26:68, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 11 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Tukums won 1 times, Ogre United won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:5 from Tukums's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 4.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.4%)
Predicted formations: Tukums 5-3-2 / Ogre United -
H2H summary: Tukums wins 1, draws 1, Ogre United wins 1

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 3 2 68:20 48 69
W D W W W
2 27 20 5 2 81:27 54 65
L D W W W
3 27 16 5 6 44:27 17 53
D W W W W
4 28 12 4 12 39:41 -2 40
W L W W L
5 28 10 7 11 33:32 1 37
L D W W L
6 28 8 7 13 32:47 -15 31
W W L L L
7 26 8 5 13 27:38 -11 29
D D L W L
8 28 5 9 14 20:50 -30 24
W L L L D
9 28 4 8 16 41:58 -17 20
L L L W L
10 27 3 5 19 26:71 -45 14
L L L D L