LATVIA VIRSLIGA
20.09.2026 13:00

Tukums vs Grobiņa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.1%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tukums Win 68.1%
Draw 21.9%
Grobiņa Win 10%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tukums1.55
Grobiņa1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tukums Tukums
WWDLW
48 GF / 66 GA
Grobiņa Grobiņa
WLDWL
34 GF / 63 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
0.92
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.7
27
BTTS Yes
18
25
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tukums Tukums 33 matches
Grobiņa Grobiņa 37 matches
Tukums Statistic Grobiņa
5 Wins 7
10 Draws 13
18 Losses 17
48 Goals For 34
66 Goals Against 63
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.7
27 BTTS Yes 18
31 Over 1.5 26
25 Over 2.5 13
14 Over 3.5 11
1 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 15
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Tukums expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Grobiņa in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Grobiņa having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Grobiņa.

Tukums Analysis

Tukums sit 9 with 23 points after 30 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 43:60, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Grobiņa Analysis

Grobiņa approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 25 points from 30 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 10 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 20:51, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tukums won 8 times, Grobiņa won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:19 from Tukums's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (90%)
Predicted formations: Tukums 3-5-2 / Grobiņa 4-4-2
H2H summary: Tukums wins 8, draws 2, Grobiņa wins 5

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 23 4 2 70:21 49 73
W D W D W
2 29 20 7 2 84:30 54 67
D D L D W
3 29 17 6 6 47:29 18 57
D W D W W
4 30 12 6 12 41:43 -2 42
D D W L W
5 30 10 8 12 35:35 0 38
L D L D W
6 28 10 5 13 29:38 -9 35
W W D D L
7 30 8 8 14 32:48 -16 32
D L W W L
8 30 5 10 15 20:51 -31 25
D L W L L
9 30 5 8 17 43:60 -17 23
L W L L L
10 29 3 6 20 29:75 -46 15
D L L L L