LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: A. Kenins
Tukums
Match Timeline
FS Jelgava
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
R. Reingolcs
Tukums
11'
A. Kangars
Tukums
🟨
20'
A. Deklavs
FS Jelgava
21'
B. Samoilovs · Assist: E. Oloko
Tukums
🔄
29'
R. Melkis ↔ R. Becers
FS Jelgava
🔄
29'
A. Deklavs ↔ A. Butovskis
FS Jelgava
🔄
29'
A. Janovskis ↔ A. Petersons
FS Jelgava
🟨
31'
H. Joksts
Tukums
🔄
61'
B. Samoilovs ↔ J. Toba
Tukums
🔄
71'
S. Shibata ↔ D. Valmiers
Tukums
🔄
71'
R. Melkis ↔ R. Baumanis
Tukums
🔄
73'
L. Prior ↔ E. Smaukstelis
FS Jelgava
🔄
79'
R. Reingolcs ↔ K. Klavins
Tukums
🔄
79'
Leoni ↔ R. Deruzinskis
Tukums
🔄
79'
T. Rataj ↔ G. Patika
FS Jelgava
🟨
85'
J. Toba
Tukums
86'
E. Oloko · Assist: Anmanis Kaspars
Tukums
89'
E. Oloko · Assist: R. Baumanis
Tukums

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw or Away
Probability 79.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw or Away
79.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tukums Win 20.7%
Draw 37.8%
FS Jelgava Win 41.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tukums1.57
FS Jelgava1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tukums Tukums
WWDLW
17 GF / 22 GA
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
WLDWL
12 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
0.86
1.83
Average Goals Conceded
1.79
12
BTTS Yes
6
9
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tukums Tukums 12 matches
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 14 matches
Tukums Statistic FS Jelgava
0 Wins 3
7 Draws 2
5 Losses 9
17 Goals For 12
22 Goals Against 25
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 0.86
1.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1.79
12 BTTS Yes 6
12 Over 1.5 9
9 Over 2.5 5
4 Over 3.5 3
0 Clean Sheets 1
0 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FS Jelgava. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. FS Jelgava arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FS Jelgava having the stronger overall control.

Tukums Analysis

So far, Tukums have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 5 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 0 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, while the 12:16 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Oloko (5 goals), R. Deruzinskis (3 goals), Leoni (2 goals), with creative support from B. Samoilovs (2 assists), Leoni (1 assists), Anmanis Kaspars (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

FS Jelgava Analysis

FS Jelgava sit 8 with 8 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats with a 7:17 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on F. Hasek (3 goals), A. Kangars (1 goals), G. Kacanovs (1 goals), with creative support from A. Dvorak (1 assists), D. Holoubek (1 assists), G. Zaleiko (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tukums won 4 times, FS Jelgava won 4 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:21 from Tukums's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Draw or Away
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (79.4%)
Predicted formations: Tukums - / FS Jelgava 5-4-1
H2H summary: Tukums wins 4, draws 7, FS Jelgava wins 4

Lineups

Tukums
Formation
FS Jelgava
I. Baturins
I. Baturins
R. Melkis
R. Melkis
K. Volkovs
K. Volkovs
H. Joksts
H. Joksts
A. Enyou
A. Enyou
R. Reingolcs
R. Reingolcs
B. Samoilovs
B. Samoilovs
Anmanis Kaspars
🎯
Anmanis Kaspars
S. Shibata
S. Shibata
Leoni
Leoni
E. Oloko
⚽ 2 🎯
E. Oloko
A. Dvorak
A. Dvorak
A. Janovskis
A. Janovskis
A. Kangars
A. Kangars
A. Deklavs
A. Deklavs
M. Semesko
M. Semesko
L. Prior
L. Prior
G. Zaleiko
G. Zaleiko
D. Holoubek
D. Holoubek
F. Hasek
F. Hasek
R. Melkis
R. Melkis
T. Rataj
T. Rataj
Tukums 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
97
I. Baturins
28
R. Melkis
↓ 71'
6
K. Volkovs
25
H. Joksts
🟨 31'
46
A. Enyou
8
R. Reingolcs
⚽ 6' ↓ 79'
10
B. Samoilovs
⚽ 21' ↓ 61'
4
Anmanis Kaspars
🎯 86'
7
S. Shibata
↓ 71'
11
Leoni
↓ 79'
19
E. Oloko
⚽ 86' ⚽ 89' 🎯 21'
Substitutes
35
K. Minajevs
88
M. Stals
14
D. Putrans
21
D. Valmiers
↑ 71'
16
K. Klavins
↑ 79'
22
R. Baumanis
🎯 89' ↑ 71'
29
Y. Koki
5
J. Toba
↑ 61' 🟨 85'
27
R. Deruzinskis
↑ 79'
FS Jelgava 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
A. Dvorak
7
A. Janovskis
↓ 29'
4
A. Kangars
⚽ 11'
28
A. Deklavs
↓ 29' 🟨 20'
3
M. Semesko
25
L. Prior
↓ 73'
29
G. Zaleiko
10
D. Holoubek
24
F. Hasek
8
R. Melkis
↓ 29'
17
T. Rataj
↓ 79'
Substitutes
30
S. Belanik
16
T. Leitis
9
R. Becers
↑ 29'
26
A. Butovskis
↑ 29'
22
M. Pudil
21
G. Kacanovs
19
A. Petersons
↑ 29'
20
G. Patika
↑ 79'
18
E. Smaukstelis
↑ 73'
Last matches: Tukums
18.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
05.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
3
L
01.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
26.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
2
3
L
21.06.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
12.06.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
3
L
25.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
15.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
1
D
07.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
26.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
1
2
L
21.04.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
09.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
3
3
D
05.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
1
D
22.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
Last matches: FS Jelgava
20.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
03.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
3
L
29.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
5
1
W
21.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
4
1
W
17.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
0
2
L
13.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
4
L
16.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
2
2
D
11.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
0
D
06.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
W
27.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
1
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
2
3
L
16.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
12.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
08.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
8
L
21.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
1
L
H2H: Tukums vs FS Jelgava
21.06.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
4
1
L
01.05.26
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
08.03.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
1
L
09.11.25
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
23.08.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
1
1
D
17.06.25
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
23.04.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
1
L
15.09.24
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
3
3
D
26.06.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
0
D
07.05.24
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
2
1
W
17.03.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
3
W
11.11.23
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
0
0
D
26.08.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
0
L
10.06.23
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
29.04.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
2
D
Last matches: Tukums
01.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
12.06.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
20.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
07.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
21.04.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
05.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
1
D
22.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Tukums
Džiugas Telšiai
2
2
D
H2H at home: Tukums
01.05.26
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
09.11.25
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
17.06.25
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
15.09.24
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
3
3
D
07.05.24
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
2
1
W
11.11.23
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
0
0
D
10.06.23
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
Last matches: FS Jelgava
03.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
3
L
25.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
5
1
W
13.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
4
L
16.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
2
2
D
11.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
0
D
27.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
1
0
W
16.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
12.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
15.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
1
D
27.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Šiauliai
0
1
L
01.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Nõmme United
4
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Panevėžys
0
2
L
H2H away: FS Jelgava
01.05.26
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
L
09.11.25
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
17.06.25
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
15.09.24
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
3
3
D
07.05.24
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
2
1
L
11.11.23
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
0
0
D
10.06.23
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
2
0
L