LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: A. Treimanis
Tukums
Match Timeline
BFC Daugavpils
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
K. Volkovs
Tukums
🟨
46'
K. Volkovs
Tukums
🟥
46'
K. Volkovs
Tukums
🔄
49'
Leoni ↔ M. Susts
Tukums
🔄
61'
A. Garzha ↔ M. Sylla
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
65'
R. Reingolcs ↔ R. Melkis
Tukums
🔄
65'
B. Samoilovs ↔ J. Toba
Tukums
🔄
68'
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand ↔ R. Skrebels
BFC Daugavpils
75'
R. Melkis · Assist: M. Derkach
Tukums
🔄
80'
A. Traore ↔ D. Kivinda
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
82'
Anmanis Kaspars ↔ R. Baumanis
Tukums
🔄
83'
M. Derkach ↔ D. Valmiers
Tukums
88'
R. Ndjiki · Assist: J. Yakubu
BFC Daugavpils

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.9%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tukums Win 49.9%
Draw 15.1%
BFC Daugavpils Win 35%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tukums1.73
BFC Daugavpils1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tukums Tukums
WWDLW
34 GF / 36 GA
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WLDWL
26 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.79
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.63
17
BTTS Yes
13
15
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tukums Tukums 19 matches
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 24 matches
Tukums Statistic BFC Daugavpils
2 Wins 7
9 Draws 3
8 Losses 14
34 Goals For 26
36 Goals Against 39
1.79 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.63
17 BTTS Yes 13
19 Over 1.5 15
15 Over 2.5 11
9 Over 3.5 7
1 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward BFC Daugavpils. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward BFC Daugavpils having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Tukums Analysis

From their first 16 matches, Tukums have collected 13 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 2 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 29:30 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Oloko (15 goals), R. Deruzinskis (6 goals), Leoni (4 goals), with creative support from B. Samoilovs (6 assists), R. Deruzinskis (2 assists), Anmanis Kaspars (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

So far, BFC Daugavpils have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 18 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, while the 19:24 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on R. Ndjiki (6 goals), A. Garzha (5 goals), J. Yakubu (4 goals), with creative support from R. Ndjiki (4 assists), J. Yakubu (3 assists), G. Mihalcovs (3 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tukums won 3 times, BFC Daugavpils won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:24 from Tukums's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.9%)
H2H summary: Tukums wins 3, draws 5, BFC Daugavpils wins 7

Lineups

Tukums
Formation
BFC Daugavpils
I. Baturins
I. Baturins
R. Reingolcs
R. Reingolcs
K. Volkovs
K. Volkovs
M. Stals
M. Stals
A. Enyou
A. Enyou
M. Derkach
🎯
M. Derkach
B. Samoilovs
B. Samoilovs
Anmanis Kaspars
Anmanis Kaspars
S. Shibata
S. Shibata
Leoni
Leoni
E. Oloko
E. Oloko
J. Beks
J. Beks
G. Mihalcovs
G. Mihalcovs
Papa
Papa
C. Taty
C. Taty
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
E. Ivanovs
E. Ivanovs
W. Mukwelle
W. Mukwelle
J. Yakubu
🎯
J. Yakubu
A. Garzha
A. Garzha
A. Traore
A. Traore
R. Ndjiki
R. Ndjiki
Tukums 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
97
I. Baturins
8
R. Reingolcs
↓ 65'
6
K. Volkovs
🟨 25' 🟨 46' 🟥 46'
88
M. Stals
46
A. Enyou
17
M. Derkach
🎯 75' ↓ 83'
10
B. Samoilovs
↓ 65'
4
Anmanis Kaspars
↓ 82'
7
S. Shibata
11
Leoni
↓ 49'
19
E. Oloko
Substitutes
35
K. Minajevs
15
R. Kirss
21
D. Valmiers
↑ 83'
16
K. Klavins
28
R. Melkis
⚽ 75' ↑ 65'
22
R. Baumanis
↑ 82'
5
J. Toba
↑ 65'
27
R. Deruzinskis
30
M. Susts
↑ 49'
BFC Daugavpils 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
12
J. Beks
37
G. Mihalcovs
5
Papa
20
C. Taty
34
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
↓ 68'
10
E. Ivanovs
4
W. Mukwelle
11
J. Yakubu
🎯 88'
22
A. Garzha
↓ 61'
9
A. Traore
↓ 80'
15
R. Ndjiki
⚽ 88'
Substitutes
1
J. Saveljevs
97
D. Kivinda
↑ 80'
77
R. Aizups
27
M. Kopilovs
7
M. Sylla
↑ 61'
8
R. Skrebels
↑ 68'
42
A. Saveljevs
3
R. Baikovs
26
R. Vibans
Last matches: Tukums
05.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
3
L
01.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
26.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
2
3
L
21.06.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
30.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
3
L
25.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
15.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
1
D
07.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
01.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
26.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
1
2
L
21.04.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
09.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
3
3
D
05.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
1
D
22.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
15.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
1
1
D
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
04.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
3
1
W
30.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
25.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
0
0
D
20.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
0
W
16.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
31.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
21.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
W
17.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
13.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
08.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
1
3
L
02.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
1
D
27.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
21.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
16.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
12.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
3
2
W
07.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
2
1
W
03.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
21.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
4
L
14.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
2
4
L
H2H: Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils
12.06.26
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
21.04.26
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
30.08.25
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
21.06.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
2
W
30.04.25
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
07.03.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
0
L
21.09.24
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
03.07.24
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
12.05.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
4
1
L
30.03.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
1
L
01.09.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
3
0
W
26.06.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
1
L
03.05.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
3
D
12.03.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
04.02.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
Last matches: Tukums
01.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
20.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
07.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
01.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
05.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
1
D
22.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Tukums
Džiugas Telšiai
2
2
D
H2H at home: Tukums
12.06.26
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
21.04.26
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
30.08.25
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
30.04.25
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
21.09.24
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
03.07.24
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
01.09.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
3
0
W
12.03.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
04.02.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
30.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
31.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
17.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
02.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
1
D
21.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
12.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
3
2
W
21.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
4
L
14.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
2
4
L
28.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
14.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Suduva Marijampole
3
5
L
07.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Šiauliai
0
1
L
31.01.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
28.01.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
FK Trakai
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
TransINVEST Vilnius
1
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Panevėžys
0
1
L
10.07.25
UEF
BFC Daugavpils
Vllaznia Shkodër
1
0
W
H2H away: BFC Daugavpils
12.06.26
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
21.04.26
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
30.08.25
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
W
30.04.25
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
21.09.24
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
03.07.24
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
W
01.09.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
3
0
L
12.03.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
L
04.02.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
W

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 18 2 2 54:16 38 56
D W W W L
2 22 17 4 1 65:19 46 55
W W D W W
3 22 12 4 6 37:26 11 40
D L D W L
4 22 8 4 10 28:34 -6 28
L W L L L
5 22 7 6 9 25:29 -4 27
W L D W D
6 22 6 7 9 24:38 -14 25
L W W W L
7 22 7 3 12 23:35 -12 24
L W L L D
8 22 4 8 10 15:33 -18 20
W L D L W
9 22 3 8 11 37:44 -7 17
L L L L W
10 22 3 4 15 21:55 -34 13
W L W L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga