NORWAY ELITESERIEN
--.--.---- --:--
Romssa Arena
Referee: S. T. Sinnes
Tromso
Match Timeline
Valerenga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
Heine Asen Larsen · Assist: Ruben Jenssen
Tromso
22'
Jens Hjertø-Dahl · Assist: Vetle Skjaervik
Tromso
45+2'
Heine Asen Larsen · Assist: Leo Cornic
Tromso
🔄
60'
Magnus Westergaard ↔ Mohamed Ofkir
Valerenga
🔄
67'
Ruben Jenssen ↔ Troy Nyhammer
Tromso
🔄
67'
Heine Asen Larsen ↔ Daniel Braut
Tromso
🔄
72'
Petter Strand ↔ Lucas Haren
Valerenga
🔄
73'
Ivan Näsberg ↔ Kevin Tshiembe
Valerenga
🟨
74'
David Edvardsson
Tromso
🔄
75'
Sander Innvær ↔ Mathias Tonnessen
Tromso
🔄
75'
Jens Hjertø-Dahl ↔ Sigurd Prestmo
Tromso
80'
Troy Nyhammer · Assist: David Edvardsson
Tromso
🔄
81'
Lars Olden Larsen ↔ Jesper Andreas Grundt
Tromso
🔄
82'
Hakon Sjatil ↔ Sebastian Jarl
Valerenga
🔄
82'
Mathias Grundetjern ↔ Gabriel Rajkovic
Valerenga
🟨
86'
Sebastian Jarl
Valerenga

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.6%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tromso Win 82.6%
Draw 5.9%
Valerenga Win 11.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tromso1.44
Valerenga1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tromso Tromso
WWDLW
27 GF / 16 GA
Valerenga Valerenga
WLDWL
37 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.76
0.84
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
6
BTTS Yes
12
6
Over 2.5
11
5.15
Shots on Goal
4.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tromso Tromso 19 matches
Valerenga Valerenga 21 matches
Tromso Statistic Valerenga
11 Wins 10
6 Draws 4
2 Losses 7
27 Goals For 37
16 Goals Against 31
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
0.84 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
6 BTTS Yes 12
13 Over 1.5 16
6 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 9
11 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 4
5.15 Shots On Goal 4.91
13.38 Total Shots 15.09
5.77 Corners 7.18
49.7% Ball Possession 50.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Tromso's more proactive style and Valerenga's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Tromso arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 25 points compared to Valerenga in 9 on 14, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Tromso expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Valerenga in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Valerenga having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Valerenga. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Tromso Analysis

Tromso arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 25 points after 13 matches. The record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 18:14 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Hjerto-Dahl (5 goals), H. Larsen (3 goals), A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd (2 goals), with creative support from R. Jenssen (5 assists), J. Hjerto-Dahl (2 assists), H. Larsen (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Valerenga Analysis

Valerenga sit 9 with 14 points after 11 league matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 13:17 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by C. Lange (3 goals), Lucas Haren (3 goals), M. Grundetjern (2 goals), with creative support from M. Grundetjern (2 assists), H. Bjordal (2 assists), K. Finnsson (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Tromso won 5 times, Valerenga won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:14 from Tromso's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.54 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.1%)
Predicted formations: Tromso 5-3-2 / Valerenga 4-4-2
Missing players: Tromso 4, Valerenga 2
H2H summary: Tromso wins 5, draws 4, Valerenga wins 4
Stats
Tromso Tromso
Valerenga Valerenga
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
9
4 Corner Kicks 7
10 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 2
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Goal 3
4 Shots off Goal 6
1 Blocked Shots 9
7 Shots insidebox 12
6 Shots outsidebox 6
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
407 Total passes 639
328 Passes accurate 556
1.39 expected_goals 0.78
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Tromso
Formation
Valerenga
Jakob Haugaard
Jakob Haugaard
Leo Cornic
🎯
Leo Cornic
Vetle Skjaervik
🎯
Vetle Skjaervik
Tobias Kvalvagnes Guddal
Tobias Kvalvagnes Guddal
Isak Vadebu
Isak Vadebu
Sander Innvær
Sander Innvær
David Edvardsson
🎯
David Edvardsson
Ruben Jenssen
🎯
Ruben Jenssen
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Lars Olden Larsen
Lars Olden Larsen
Heine Asen Larsen
⚽ 2
Heine Asen Larsen
Oscar Hedvall
Oscar Hedvall
Hakon Sjatil
Hakon Sjatil
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Ivan Näsberg
Ivan Näsberg
Kolbeinn Finnsson
Kolbeinn Finnsson
Magnus Westergaard
Magnus Westergaard
Ambina Fidèle Brice
Ambina Fidèle Brice
Carl Lange
Carl Lange
Petter Strand
Petter Strand
Henrik Bjørdal
Henrik Bjørdal
Mathias Grundetjern
Mathias Grundetjern
Tromso 5-3-2
Starting XI
1
Jakob Haugaard
G
2
Leo Cornic
🎯 45+2'
D
4
Vetle Skjaervik
🎯 22'
D
21
Tobias Kvalvagnes Guddal
D
30
Isak Vadebu
D
37
Sander Innvær
↓ 75'
D
5
David Edvardsson
🎯 80' 🟨 74'
M
11
Ruben Jenssen
🎯 12' ↓ 67'
M
6
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
⚽ 22' ↓ 75'
M
7
Lars Olden Larsen
↓ 81'
F
22
Heine Asen Larsen
⚽ 12' ⚽ 45+2' ↓ 67'
F
Substitutes
10
Troy Nyhammer
⚽ 80' ↑ 67'
M
9
Daniel Braut
↑ 67'
F
3
Mathias Tonnessen
↑ 75'
D
14
Sigurd Prestmo
↑ 75'
F
8
Jesper Andreas Grundt
↑ 81'
M
12
Ole Lauvli
G
27
Mads Mikkelsen
M
19
Aleksander Lilletun Elvebu
M
Valerenga 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
Oscar Hedvall
G
3
Hakon Sjatil
↓ 82'
D
4
Aaron Kiil Olsen
D
37
Ivan Näsberg
↓ 73'
D
2
Kolbeinn Finnsson
D
28
Magnus Westergaard
↓ 60'
M
29
Ambina Fidèle Brice
M
10
Carl Lange
M
24
Petter Strand
↓ 72'
M
8
Henrik Bjørdal
F
17
Mathias Grundetjern
↓ 82'
F
Substitutes
7
Mohamed Ofkir
↑ 60'
M
77
Lucas Haren
↑ 72'
M
5
Kevin Tshiembe
↑ 73'
D
55
Sebastian Jarl
↑ 82' 🟨 86'
D
9
Gabriel Rajkovic
↑ 82'
F
30
Alexander Svensen Ordal
G
6
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad
D
22
Stian Sjøvold Thorstensen
M
90
Ole Christian Saeter
F
Last matches: Tromso
06.08.26
UEF
Tromso
CFR 1907 Cluj
5
0
W
02.08.26
Eli
Tromso
Aalesund
6
2
W
30.07.26
UEF
Tromso
Hradec Králové
1
3
L
23.07.26
UEF
Tromso
Hradec Králové
0
1
L
18.07.26
Eli
Tromso
Ham-Kam
4
1
W
25.06.26
Fri
Tromso
Orgryte IS
4
1
W
29.05.26
Eli
Tromso
KFUM Oslo
0
0
D
25.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Aalesund
1
1
D
16.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Bodo/Glimt
0
5
L
10.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Molde
2
0
W
03.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Start
1
1
D
29.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Brann
0
5
L
26.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Sandefjord
3
1
W
19.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
0
W
15.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Lillestrom
0
0
D
11.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Kristiansund BK
2
0
W
06.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Rosenborg
2
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Tromso
Start
1
0
W
22.03.26
Eli
Tromso
Brann
2
1
W
15.03.26
Eli
Tromso
Fredrikstad
4
0
W
Last matches: Valerenga
08.08.26
Eli
Valerenga
Bodo/Glimt
1
2
L
31.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
0
3
L
26.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Brann
3
2
W
16.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Aalesund
6
1
W
04.07.26
Fri
Valerenga
Fredrikstad
3
1
W
27.06.26
Fri
Valerenga
Gais
1
2
L
18.06.26
Fri
Valerenga
IFK Goteborg
1
1
D
29.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Kristiansund BK
3
1
W
25.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Start
0
2
L
16.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
2
W
08.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
0
1
L
03.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
2
2
D
26.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Molde
1
5
L
19.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Lillestrom
0
2
L
12.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Fredrikstad
1
1
D
06.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Viking
0
1
L
27.03.26
Fri
Valerenga
IFK Goteborg
3
3
D
22.03.26
Eli
Valerenga
Rosenborg
2
0
W
15.03.26
Eli
Valerenga
Sandefjord
1
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Valerenga
Stromsgodset
4
3
W
H2H: Tromso vs Valerenga
11.07.26
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
4
0
W
04.10.25
H2H
Valerenga
Tromso
1
0
L
31.05.25
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
2
1
W
15.03.25
H2H
Valerenga
Tromso
1
4
W
01.05.24
H2H
Valerenga
Tromso
1
0
L
17.03.24
H2H
Valerenga
Tromso
3
1
L
03.12.23
H2H
Valerenga
Tromso
1
1
D
09.07.23
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
0
0
D
21.08.22
H2H
Valerenga
Tromso
1
0
L
12.05.22
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
1
0
W
21.11.21
H2H
Valerenga
Tromso
1
1
D
15.08.21
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
1
1
D
17.07.21
H2H
Valerenga
Tromso
0
0
D
20.06.21
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
0
0
D
02.05.21
H2H
Valerenga
Tromso
3
4
W
Last matches: Tromso
23.07.26
UEF
Tromso
Hradec Králové
0
1
L
25.06.26
Fri
Tromso
Orgryte IS
4
1
W
25.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Aalesund
1
1
D
10.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Molde
2
0
W
29.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Brann
0
5
L
26.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Sandefjord
3
1
W
15.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Lillestrom
0
0
D
11.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Kristiansund BK
2
0
W
06.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Rosenborg
2
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Tromso
Start
1
0
W
15.03.26
Eli
Tromso
Fredrikstad
4
0
W
27.02.26
Fri
Tromso
Lillestrom
0
0
D
20.02.26
Fri
Tromso
Viking
1
1
D
13.02.26
Fri
Tromso
Bryne
1
0
W
H2H at home: Tromso
11.07.26
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
4
0
W
31.05.25
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
2
1
W
09.07.23
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
0
0
D
12.05.22
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
1
0
W
15.08.21
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
1
1
D
20.06.21
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
0
0
D
Last matches: Valerenga
26.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Brann
3
2
W
18.06.26
Fri
Valerenga
IFK Goteborg
1
1
D
25.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Start
0
2
L
08.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
0
1
L
26.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Molde
1
5
L
12.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Fredrikstad
1
1
D
22.03.26
Eli
Valerenga
Rosenborg
2
0
W
27.02.26
Fri
Valerenga
Rosenborg
1
0
W
14.02.26
Fri
Valerenga
Djurgardens IF
1
2
L
H2H away: Valerenga
11.07.26
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
4
0
L
31.05.25
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
2
1
L
09.07.23
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
0
0
D
12.05.22
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
1
0
L
15.08.21
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
1
1
D
20.06.21
H2H
Tromso
Valerenga
0
0
D

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 13 2 2 43:12 31 41
W W W W W
2 16 13 1 2 39:15 24 40
W W D W W
3 16 10 4 2 32:17 15 34
W W W D D
4 15 8 1 6 22:18 4 25
L L W W L
5 15 7 3 5 28:22 6 24
D W L D W
6 16 7 1 8 33:27 6 22
W L W W L
7 16 6 4 6 19:21 -2 22
L D W D W
8 15 6 3 6 23:26 -3 21
W L L L D
9 16 6 2 8 23:29 -6 20
L L W W L
10 16 6 2 8 17:27 -10 20
W W L L L
11 15 5 3 7 21:21 0 18
L W W W D
12 16 5 3 8 18:26 -8 18
W W L L L
13 16 4 3 9 13:22 -9 15
L L L L D
14 15 2 7 6 21:35 -14 13
L D L D D
15 15 3 3 9 13:25 -12 12
L L D L L
16 17 2 4 11 16:38 -22 10
L L W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen

Missing Players

Tromso 4 missing
-
T. Guddal
Questionable Illness
OUT
-
A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
M. Tonnessen
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
V. Ekblom
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT
Valerenga 2 missing
-
M. Sjoeng
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
F. Thorvaldsen
Questionable Injury
OUT