NORWAY ELITESERIEN
--.--.---- --:--
Romssa Arena
Referee: S. T. Sinnes
Tromso
Match Timeline
Valerenga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
Heine Asen Larsen · Assist: Ruben Jenssen
Tromso
22'
Jens Hjertø-Dahl · Assist: Vetle Skjaervik
Tromso
45+2'
Heine Asen Larsen · Assist: Leo Cornic
Tromso
🔄
60'
Magnus Westergaard ↔ Mohamed Ofkir
Valerenga
🔄
67'
Ruben Jenssen ↔ Troy Nyhammer
Tromso
🔄
67'
Heine Asen Larsen ↔ Daniel Braut
Tromso
🔄
72'
Petter Strand ↔ Lucas Haren
Valerenga
🔄
73'
Ivan Näsberg ↔ Kevin Tshiembe
Valerenga
🟨
74'
David Edvardsson
Tromso
🔄
75'
Sander Innvær ↔ Mathias Tonnessen
Tromso
🔄
75'
Jens Hjertø-Dahl ↔ Sigurd Prestmo
Tromso
80'
Troy Nyhammer · Assist: David Edvardsson
Tromso
🔄
81'
Lars Olden Larsen ↔ Jesper Andreas Grundt
Tromso
🔄
82'
Hakon Sjatil ↔ Sebastian Jarl
Valerenga
🔄
82'
Mathias Grundetjern ↔ Gabriel Rajkovic
Valerenga
🟨
86'
Sebastian Jarl
Valerenga

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.6%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tromso Win 82.6%
Draw 5.9%
Valerenga Win 11.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tromso1.44
Valerenga1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tromso Tromso
WWDLW
27 GF / 16 GA
Valerenga Valerenga
WLDWL
37 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.76
0.84
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
6
BTTS Yes
12
6
Over 2.5
11
5.15
Shots on Goal
4.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tromso Tromso 19 matches
Valerenga Valerenga 21 matches
Tromso Statistic Valerenga
11 Wins 10
6 Draws 4
2 Losses 7
27 Goals For 37
16 Goals Against 31
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
0.84 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
6 BTTS Yes 12
13 Over 1.5 16
6 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 9
11 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 4
5.15 Shots On Goal 4.91
13.38 Total Shots 15.09
5.77 Corners 7.18
49.7% Ball Possession 50.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Tromso's more proactive style and Valerenga's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Tromso arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 25 points compared to Valerenga in 9 on 14, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Tromso expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Valerenga in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Valerenga having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Valerenga. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Tromso Analysis

Tromso arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 25 points after 13 matches. The record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 18:14 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Hjerto-Dahl (5 goals), H. Larsen (3 goals), A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd (2 goals), with creative support from R. Jenssen (5 assists), J. Hjerto-Dahl (2 assists), H. Larsen (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Valerenga Analysis

Valerenga sit 9 with 14 points after 11 league matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 13:17 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by C. Lange (3 goals), Lucas Haren (3 goals), M. Grundetjern (2 goals), with creative support from M. Grundetjern (2 assists), H. Bjordal (2 assists), K. Finnsson (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Tromso won 5 times, Valerenga won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:14 from Tromso's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.54 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.1%)
Predicted formations: Tromso 5-3-2 / Valerenga 4-4-2
Missing players: Tromso 4, Valerenga 2
H2H summary: Tromso wins 5, draws 4, Valerenga wins 4

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 14 2 2 47:14 33 44
W W W W W
2 18 14 1 3 42:18 24 43
W L W W D
3 18 10 5 3 34:20 14 35
D L W W W
4 18 9 3 6 36:29 7 30
W W L D W
5 18 8 2 8 36:27 9 26
D W W L W
6 18 8 2 8 24:25 -1 26
L D L L L
7 18 8 2 8 22:28 -6 26
W W W W L
8 18 7 3 8 27:26 1 24
L W W L W
9 18 6 5 7 20:23 -3 23
D L L D W
10 18 6 5 7 26:32 -6 23
D L D W L
11 18 6 3 9 31:38 -7 21
L D L L W
12 18 5 4 9 15:23 -8 19
D W L L L
13 18 5 4 9 20:31 -11 19
L D W W L
14 18 4 4 10 17:29 -12 16
D L W L L
15 18 2 9 7 28:43 -15 15
L D D L D
16 18 3 4 11 20:39 -19 13
W L L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen