NORWAY ELITESERIEN
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Romssa Arena

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.9%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tromso Win 68.9%
Draw 4.6%
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win 26.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tromso1.65
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tromso Tromso
WWDLW
51 GF / 27 GA
Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF
WLDWL
42 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.82
Average Goals Scored
1.5
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
11
BTTS Yes
16
13
Over 2.5
17
4.76
Shots on Goal
4.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tromso Tromso 28 matches
Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF 28 matches
Tromso Statistic Sarpsborg 08 FF
16 Wins 13
7 Draws 5
5 Losses 10
51 Goals For 42
27 Goals Against 39
1.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
11 BTTS Yes 16
20 Over 1.5 22
13 Over 2.5 17
11 Over 3.5 9
14 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 5
4.76 Shots On Goal 4.38
10.1 Total Shots 13.13
4.71 Corners 4.81
43.9% Ball Possession 44.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Tromso's more proactive style and Sarpsborg 08 FF's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Tromso arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 34 points compared to Sarpsborg 08 FF in 9 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Tromso expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Sarpsborg 08 FF in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sarpsborg 08 FF having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sarpsborg 08 FF.

Tromso Analysis

Tromso approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 34 points after 17 outings. With 10 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 34:20, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Heine Asen Larsen (5 goals), Alexander Warneryd (4 goals), Jens Hjertø-Dahl (2 goals), with creative support from Ruben Jenssen (4 assists), Jens Hjertø-Dahl (2 assists), Troy Nyhammer (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Sarpsborg 08 FF Analysis

Sarpsborg 08 FF sit 9 with 22 points after 17 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the 20:23 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Daniel Karlsbakk (5 goals), Andreas Hansen (3 goals), Sondre Sörli (2 goals), with creative support from Claus Niyukuri (4 assists), Sondre Sörli (3 assists), Sander Christiansen (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Tromso won 5 times, Sarpsborg 08 FF won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:24 from Tromso's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.23 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Tromso 5-3-2 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-4-2
H2H summary: Tromso wins 5, draws 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF wins 6
Last matches: Tromso
20.08.26
UEF
Tromso
Brighton
0
0
D
16.08.26
Eli
Tromso
Molde
2
3
L
13.08.26
UEF
Tromso
CFR 1907 Cluj
2
1
W
06.08.26
UEF
Tromso
CFR 1907 Cluj
5
0
W
02.08.26
Eli
Tromso
Aalesund
6
2
W
30.07.26
UEF
Tromso
Hradec Králové
1
3
L
23.07.26
UEF
Tromso
Hradec Králové
0
1
L
18.07.26
Eli
Tromso
Ham-Kam
4
1
W
11.07.26
Eli
Tromso
Valerenga
4
0
W
25.06.26
Fri
Tromso
Orgryte IS
4
1
W
29.05.26
Eli
Tromso
KFUM Oslo
0
0
D
25.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Aalesund
1
1
D
16.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Bodo/Glimt
0
5
L
10.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Molde
2
0
W
03.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Start
1
1
D
29.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Brann
0
5
L
26.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Sandefjord
3
1
W
19.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
0
W
15.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Lillestrom
0
0
D
11.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Kristiansund BK
2
0
W
Last matches: Sarpsborg 08 FF
16.08.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sandefjord
1
2
L
08.08.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Viking
1
2
L
02.08.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Molde
3
3
D
26.07.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Ham-Kam
1
0
W
18.07.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Kristiansund BK
0
0
D
12.07.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Viking
1
0
W
03.07.26
Fri
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Lillestrom
1
3
L
29.05.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Brann
2
1
W
25.05.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Molde
2
1
W
16.05.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Valerenga
2
3
L
09.05.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Fredrikstad
2
1
W
03.05.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Lillestrom
0
4
L
26.04.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
KFUM Oslo
0
1
L
19.04.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Tromso
0
1
L
15.04.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Bodo/Glimt
1
1
D
12.04.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Rosenborg
1
2
L
06.04.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Start
1
1
D
26.03.26
Fri
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Ham-Kam
2
2
D
22.03.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sandefjord
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
Sarpsborg 08 FF
BK Hacken
3
0
W
H2H: Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
19.04.26
H2H
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Tromso
0
1
W
02.11.25
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
4
0
W
25.05.25
H2H
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Tromso
0
1
W
13.02.25
H2H
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Tromso
3
3
D
01.12.24
H2H
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Tromso
2
1
L
28.04.24
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
3
L
26.08.23
H2H
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Tromso
4
0
L
04.06.23
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
1
W
23.10.22
H2H
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Tromso
1
1
D
24.04.22
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
5
L
05.12.21
H2H
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Tromso
0
1
W
06.11.21
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
0
D
03.07.21
H2H
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Tromso
0
0
D
30.05.21
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
2
L
03.11.19
H2H
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Tromso
3
2
L
Last matches: Tromso
20.08.26
UEF
Tromso
Brighton
0
0
D
13.08.26
UEF
Tromso
CFR 1907 Cluj
2
1
W
23.07.26
UEF
Tromso
Hradec Králové
0
1
L
11.07.26
Eli
Tromso
Valerenga
4
0
W
25.06.26
Fri
Tromso
Orgryte IS
4
1
W
25.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Aalesund
1
1
D
10.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Molde
2
0
W
29.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Brann
0
5
L
26.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Sandefjord
3
1
W
15.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Lillestrom
0
0
D
11.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Kristiansund BK
2
0
W
06.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Rosenborg
2
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Tromso
Start
1
0
W
15.03.26
Eli
Tromso
Fredrikstad
4
0
W
27.02.26
Fri
Tromso
Lillestrom
0
0
D
20.02.26
Fri
Tromso
Viking
1
1
D
13.02.26
Fri
Tromso
Bryne
1
0
W
H2H at home: Tromso
02.11.25
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
4
0
W
28.04.24
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
3
L
04.06.23
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
1
W
24.04.22
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
5
L
06.11.21
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
0
D
30.05.21
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
2
L
Last matches: Sarpsborg 08 FF
08.08.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Viking
1
2
L
02.08.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Molde
3
3
D
18.07.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Kristiansund BK
0
0
D
03.07.26
Fri
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Lillestrom
1
3
L
29.05.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Brann
2
1
W
16.05.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Valerenga
2
3
L
03.05.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Lillestrom
0
4
L
26.04.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
KFUM Oslo
0
1
L
12.04.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Rosenborg
1
2
L
22.03.26
Eli
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sandefjord
2
0
W
01.03.26
Fri
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Viking
0
2
L
25.02.26
Fri
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Kristiansund BK
1
0
W
05.02.26
Fri
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sirius
3
2
W
24.01.26
Fri
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Gais
1
4
L
H2H away: Sarpsborg 08 FF
02.11.25
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
4
0
L
28.04.24
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
3
W
04.06.23
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
1
L
24.04.22
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
5
W
06.11.21
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
0
D
30.05.21
H2H
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
2
W

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 13 2 2 43:12 31 41
W W W W W
2 17 13 1 3 40:17 23 40
L W W D W
3 17 10 4 3 34:20 14 34
L W W W D
4 17 8 3 6 32:26 6 27
W L D W L
5 17 8 2 7 23:21 2 26
D L L L W
6 17 8 1 8 36:27 9 25
W W L W W
7 17 7 3 7 25:22 3 24
W W L W W
8 17 7 2 8 18:27 -9 23
W W W L L
9 17 6 4 7 20:23 -3 22
L L D W D
10 17 6 4 7 24:30 -6 22
L D W L L
11 17 6 3 8 28:34 -6 21
D L L W W
12 17 5 4 8 19:27 -8 19
D W W L L
13 17 5 3 9 15:23 -8 18
W L L L L
14 17 4 3 10 15:27 -12 15
L W L L D
15 17 2 9 6 27:41 -14 15
D D L D L
16 17 2 4 11 16:38 -22 10
L L W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
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Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen