NORWAY ELITESERIEN
20.09.2026 15:00
Alfheim
Referee: Mathias Stofringshaug

Tromso vs Ham-Kam Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.9%
Odds 1.50
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.62
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.9%
1.50
BTTS Yes
58.2%
1.75
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.62
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.7%
1.23
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Tromso Win 77.9%
Draw 6.1%
Ham-Kam Win 15.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tromso1.72
Ham-Kam1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tromso Tromso
WWDLW
54 GF / 38 GA
Ham-Kam Ham-Kam
WLDWL
43 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.69
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.76
12
BTTS Yes
17
15
Over 2.5
20
4.81
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tromso Tromso 32 matches
Ham-Kam Ham-Kam 29 matches
Tromso Statistic Ham-Kam
16 Wins 10
8 Draws 7
8 Losses 12
54 Goals For 43
38 Goals Against 51
1.69 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.76
12 BTTS Yes 17
23 Over 1.5 26
15 Over 2.5 20
13 Over 3.5 12
15 Clean Sheets 7
10 Failed To Score 5
4.81 Shots On Goal 4
10.58 Total Shots 10.75
4.62 Corners 4.25
44.7% Ball Possession 46.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Tromso's more proactive style and Ham-Kam's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ham-Kam. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Tromso have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Tromso Analysis

Tromso sit 3 with 35 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 37:27, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through H. Larsen (6 goals), A. Warneryd (4 goals), T. Nyhammer (3 goals), with creative support from R. Jenssen (4 assists), T. Nyhammer (2 assists), Jens Hjertø-Dahl (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Ham-Kam Analysis

Ham-Kam sit 10 with 23 points after 19 league matches. The record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 26:36 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Mame Alassane Niang (5 goals), Aksel Baran Potur (4 goals), H. Udahl (4 goals), with creative support from P. Metcalfe (5 assists), Martin Gjone (3 assists), Viðar Ari Jónsson (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tromso won 10 times, Ham-Kam won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:12 from Tromso's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.9%)
Predicted formations: Tromso 5-3-2 / Ham-Kam 5-3-2
Missing players: Tromso 5, Ham-Kam 0
H2H summary: Tromso wins 10, draws 3, Ham-Kam wins 2

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 16 2 2 52:17 35 50
W W W W W
2 20 15 2 3 51:20 31 47
W D W L W
3 21 11 3 7 44:32 12 36
L W W W W
4 20 10 5 5 37:27 10 35
L L D L W
5 21 10 3 8 39:30 9 33
W W W L W
6 20 10 2 8 28:26 2 32
W W L D L
7 20 8 3 9 24:31 -7 27
D L W W W
8 20 8 2 10 37:31 6 26
L L D W W
9 21 6 7 8 24:29 -5 25
L D D D L
10 21 7 4 10 25:35 -10 25
W W L L D
11 20 6 5 9 27:41 -14 23
L L D L D
12 20 6 4 10 33:42 -9 22
L D L D L
13 21 4 9 8 33:46 -13 21
W L W L D
14 20 5 5 10 18:27 -9 20
L D D W L
15 21 5 4 12 21:40 -19 19
L L W D L
16 20 4 4 12 22:41 -19 16
W L W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen