11.09.2026 18:45
Ynys Park
Referee: C. Charlton-Fleming

Trefelin vs Penybont Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 88%
Odds 1.38
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.73
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
88%
1.38
BTTS Yes
71.2%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.73
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Trefelin Win 6%
Draw 6%
Penybont Win 88%
Expected Goals (xG)
Trefelin0.7
Penybont2.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Trefelin Trefelin
WWDLW
5 GF / 30 GA
Penybont Penybont
WLDWL
14 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
0.56
Average Goals Scored
1.4
3.33
Average Goals Conceded
0.9
4
BTTS Yes
4
5
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Trefelin Trefelin 9 matches
Penybont Penybont 10 matches
Trefelin Statistic Penybont
0 Wins 5
2 Draws 3
7 Losses 2
5 Goals For 14
30 Goals Against 9
0.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
3.33 Avg Goals Conceded 0.9
4 BTTS Yes 4
9 Over 1.5 7
5 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 1
0 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Penybont's more proactive style and Trefelin's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Penybont. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Trefelin have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Penybont having the stronger overall control. Penybont carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 12 points while Trefelin sit 15 on 1, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Trefelin Analysis

Trefelin sit 15 with 1 points after 6 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 2:17, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Penybont Analysis

So far, Penybont have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 12 points from 6 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, while the 10:5 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Trefelin won 0 times, Penybont won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:6 from Trefelin's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 7 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (94%)
H2H summary: Trefelin wins 0, draws 0, Penybont wins 1

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 1 0 17:3 14 19
W W W W W
2 7 6 0 1 17:8 9 18
L W W W W
3 7 5 1 1 18:5 13 16
D W W W W
4 7 5 0 2 18:9 9 15
W L W W W
5 7 5 0 2 15:7 8 15
W L W L W
6 7 4 3 0 11:5 6 15
W D D W W
7 7 4 1 2 18:9 9 13
D W W L L
8 7 4 0 3 13:9 4 12
W W L L W
9 7 3 1 3 8:11 -3 10
L W L W L
10 7 2 3 2 10:10 0 9
D D L W W
11 7 2 1 4 5:12 -7 7
L L L W L
12 7 1 1 5 3:13 -10 4
D W L L L
13 7 0 2 5 4:16 -12 2
L L D L L
14 7 0 2 5 3:18 -15 2
D L D L L
15 7 0 1 6 6:14 -8 1
L L D L L
16 7 0 1 6 10:27 -17 1
D L L L L
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)