ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
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Narva Kalev-Fama staadion

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 79.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
79.4%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Trans Narva Win 14.9%
Draw 5.7%
Vaprus Win 79.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Trans Narva1.29
Vaprus1.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Trans Narva Trans Narva
WWDLW
24 GF / 60 GA
Vaprus Vaprus
WLDWL
46 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
0.89
Average Goals Scored
1.84
2.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.88
13
BTTS Yes
15
19
Over 2.5
17
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Trans Narva Trans Narva 27 matches
Vaprus Vaprus 25 matches
Trans Narva Statistic Vaprus
4 Wins 10
5 Draws 3
18 Losses 12
24 Goals For 46
60 Goals Against 47
0.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.84
2.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.88
13 BTTS Yes 15
22 Over 1.5 21
19 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 11
5 Clean Sheets 6
11 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Vaprus having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Trans Narva have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Vaprus. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Vaprus carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 26 points while Trans Narva sit 10 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Trans Narva Analysis

Trans Narva sit 10 with 10 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 12:46, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vaprus Analysis

Placed 5 with 26 points from 19 outings, Vaprus continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 27:35 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Trans Narva won 6 times, Vaprus won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:19 from Trans Narva's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
H2H summary: Trans Narva wins 6, draws 5, Vaprus wins 4
Last matches: Trans Narva
10.07.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
0
3
L
04.07.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
21.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
0
D
13.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
2
L
30.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
0
3
L
20.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
09.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
2
L
01.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
0
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
7
L
22.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
6
L
18.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
5
L
07.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
3
0
W
03.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
2
L
25.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tartu Welco
2
2
D
Last matches: Vaprus
11.07.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
5
1
W
04.07.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
1
3
L
26.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
16.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
2
1
W
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
21.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
H2H: Trans Narva vs Vaprus
09.05.26
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
L
21.03.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
W
15.02.26
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
W
18.10.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
1
1
D
12.07.25
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
0
D
11.05.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
4
2
W
23.04.25
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
W
04.03.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
3
1
W
27.10.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
1
1
D
20.07.24
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
0
D
15.06.24
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
4
W
04.05.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
0
D
27.09.23
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
3
2
L
08.07.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
4
L
07.05.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
2
L
Last matches: Trans Narva
04.07.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
13.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
2
L
20.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
01.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
0
3
L
18.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
L
07.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
3
0
W
21.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
W
07.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
2
L
25.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tartu Welco
2
2
D
11.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Super Nova
1
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Paide
1
1
D
24.01.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
3
4
L
17.01.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tammeka
1
2
L
H2H at home: Trans Narva
21.03.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
W
18.10.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
1
1
D
11.05.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
4
2
W
04.03.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
3
1
W
27.10.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
1
1
D
04.05.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
0
D
08.07.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
4
L
07.05.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
2
L
Last matches: Vaprus
04.07.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
1
3
L
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
16.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
2
1
W
26.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
21.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
08.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Tallinna Kalev
6
0
W
24.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
3
L
H2H away: Vaprus
21.03.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
L
18.10.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
1
1
D
11.05.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
4
2
L
04.03.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
3
1
L
27.10.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
1
1
D
04.05.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
0
D
08.07.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
4
W
07.05.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
2
W

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 14 4 1 49:16 33 46
W L D W W
2 18 12 0 6 38:19 19 36
W W L W L
3 19 10 4 5 33:16 17 34
W D D L D
4 19 9 5 5 30:23 7 32
W D W W D
5 19 8 2 9 27:35 -8 26
W L W L D
6 18 8 2 8 21:26 -5 26
L W W W D
7 19 7 1 11 37:45 -8 22
W L W L W
8 19 7 1 11 25:32 -7 22
W L L L L
9 19 5 2 12 19:33 -14 17
L L L D W
10 19 3 1 15 12:46 -34 10
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga