ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Narva Kalev-Fama staadion
Referee: K. Tohver
Trans Narva
Match Timeline
Paide
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
44'
V. Kudriashov
Trans Narva
🔄
55'
Andrade ↔ R. Smirnov
Paide
🔄
56'
V. Kudriashov ↔ M. Velijev
Trans Narva
🔄
68'
P. A. Cham ↔ M. Jobarteh
Paide
🟨
69'
D. Poliakov
Trans Narva
🟨
74'
D. Pareiko
Trans Narva
🟨
76'
G. Slein
Trans Narva
🟨
90+4'
M. Jobarteh
Paide
🔄
90+6'
D. Poliakov ↔ N. Baljabkin
Trans Narva
🔄
90'
R. Nigula ↔ E. Tur
Paide
90'
G. Slein · Assist: D. Poliakov
Trans Narva

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 74.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 33.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 25.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
74.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
33.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
25.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Trans Narva Win 21%
Draw 4.8%
Paide Win 74.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Trans Narva1.21
Paide2.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Trans Narva Trans Narva
WWDLW
21 GF / 48 GA
Paide Paide
WLDWL
36 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
1.8
2.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
11
BTTS Yes
15
15
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Trans Narva Trans Narva 20 matches
Paide Paide 20 matches
Trans Narva Statistic Paide
3 Wins 10
4 Draws 4
13 Losses 6
21 Goals For 36
48 Goals Against 29
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 1.8
2.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
11 BTTS Yes 15
18 Over 1.5 15
15 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 11
3 Clean Sheets 4
7 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Paide's more proactive style and Trans Narva's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Paide. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Paide having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Paide carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 20 points while Trans Narva sit 10 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Trans Narva Analysis

Trans Narva approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 6 points from 12 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 10 defeats with a 9:34 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Gero (4 goals), S. Agaptsev (2 goals), C. Campagna (1 goals), with creative support from A. Ivanyushin (2 assists), D. Poliakov (2 assists), S. Agaptsev (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Paide Analysis

With 20 points from 12 games and a place of 4, Paide still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats with a 21:17 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Daniel Cabral (5 goals), H. Anier (3 goals), M. P. Sohna (3 goals), with creative support from H. Anier (3 assists), Victor Hugo (2 assists), M. P. Sohna (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Trans Narva won 6 times, Paide won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:20 from Trans Narva's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
H2H summary: Trans Narva wins 6, draws 4, Paide wins 5

Lineups

Trans Narva
Formation
Paide
D. Pareiko
D. Pareiko
S. Burjanadze
S. Burjanadze
C. Campagna
C. Campagna
Eriks Santos
Eriks Santos
A. Ivanyushin
A. Ivanyushin
S. Agaptsev
S. Agaptsev
G. Slein
G. Slein
D. Poliakov
🎯
D. Poliakov
V. Kudriashov
V. Kudriashov
J. Doke
J. Doke
A. Gero
A. Gero
M. Meerits
M. Meerits
M. Lilander
M. Lilander
N. Baranov
N. Baranov
Andrade
Andrade
R. Nigula
R. Nigula
O. Hoim
O. Hoim
Daniel Cabral
Daniel Cabral
M. Miller
M. Miller
P. A. Cham
P. A. Cham
D. Luts
D. Luts
A. Badamosi
A. Badamosi
Trans Narva 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
27
D. Pareiko
🟨 74'
25
S. Burjanadze
5
C. Campagna
12
Eriks Santos
4
A. Ivanyushin
8
S. Agaptsev
6
G. Slein
⚽ 90' 🟨 76'
39
D. Poliakov
🎯 90' ↓ 90+6' 🟨 69'
29
V. Kudriashov
↓ 56' 🟨 44'
9
J. Doke
10
A. Gero
Substitutes
1
M. Zahharov
31
I. Rebrik
2
V. Shantenkov
7
M. Velijev
↑ 56'
16
S. Kondrattsev
19
Elysee
23
A. Jegorov
28
K. Miranda da Silva
30
A. Timoska
47
N. Baljabkin
↑ 90+6'
88
A. Besigirskis
Paide 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
12
M. Meerits
2
M. Lilander
27
N. Baranov
4
Andrade
↓ 55'
24
R. Nigula
↓ 90'
28
O. Hoim
6
Daniel Cabral
10
M. Miller
17
P. A. Cham
↓ 68'
77
D. Luts
30
A. Badamosi
Substitutes
56
M. Sapp
7
E. Tur
↑ 90'
14
M. Jobarteh
↑ 68' 🟨 90+4'
15
H. Ojamaa
21
R. Smirnov
↑ 55'
49
H. Lehtmaa
Last matches: Trans Narva
16.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
0
D
13.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
2
L
30.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
0
3
L
16.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
09.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
2
L
01.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
0
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
7
L
22.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
6
L
18.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
5
L
07.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
3
0
W
03.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
2
L
25.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tartu Welco
2
2
D
21.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
2
2
D
15.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
0
W
11.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Super Nova
1
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Paide
1
1
D
Last matches: Paide
17.06.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
01.05.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
26.04.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
22.04.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
19.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
2
D
15.03.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
1
0
W
07.03.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
2
3
L
28.02.26
Fri
Paide
Super Nova
1
0
W
20.02.26
Fri
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Paide
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Paide
Trans Narva
1
1
D
31.01.26
Fri
Paide
Metta / LU
2
1
W
H2H: Trans Narva vs Paide
20.05.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
W
15.03.26
H2H
Paide
Trans Narva
1
0
L
07.02.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
1
1
D
27.09.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
2
3
L
20.07.25
H2H
Paide
Trans Narva
2
0
L
31.05.25
H2H
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
W
15.03.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
W
18.01.25
H2H
Paide
Trans Narva
1
2
W
29.09.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
0
3
L
25.09.24
H2H
Paide
Trans Narva
2
3
W
04.07.24
H2H
Paide
Trans Narva
2
2
D
28.04.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
1
1
D
04.11.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
1
3
L
27.08.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
0
0
D
28.05.23
H2H
Paide
Trans Narva
1
2
W
Last matches: Trans Narva
13.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
2
L
16.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
01.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
0
3
L
18.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
L
07.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
3
0
W
21.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
W
07.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
2
L
25.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tartu Welco
2
2
D
11.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Super Nova
1
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Paide
1
1
D
24.01.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
3
4
L
17.01.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tammeka
1
2
L
H2H at home: Trans Narva
20.05.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
W
07.02.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
1
1
D
27.09.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
2
3
L
15.03.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
W
29.09.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
0
3
L
28.04.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
1
1
D
04.11.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
1
3
L
27.08.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
0
0
D
Last matches: Paide
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
22.04.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
2
D
07.03.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
2
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
Paide
Trans Narva
1
1
D
19.01.26
Fri
Paide
FK Liepaja
1
3
L
31.07.25
UEF
Paide
AIK Stockholm
0
6
L
10.07.25
UEF
Paide
Magpies
3
2
W
H2H away: Paide
20.05.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
L
07.02.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
1
1
D
27.09.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
2
3
W
15.03.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
L
29.09.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
0
3
W
28.04.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
1
1
D
04.11.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
1
3
W
27.08.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Paide
0
0
D

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 13 3 0 44:12 32 42
W W W W W
2 15 10 0 5 32:16 16 30
W L W W W
3 16 9 2 5 28:13 15 29
L D L W W
4
Paide Away
16 7 4 5 24:20 4 25
W D D L L
5 15 6 2 7 17:20 -3 20
W D L W W
6 16 6 2 8 20:31 -11 20
L D W L W
7 16 6 1 9 20:27 -7 19
L L W L L
8 16 5 2 9 17:26 -9 17
D W D W L
9 16 5 1 10 30:39 -9 16
L W L L L
10 16 3 1 12 11:39 -28 10
D L L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga