ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Narva Kalev-Fama staadion
Referee: K. Kulljastinen
Trans Narva
Match Timeline
Kuressaare
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
15'
A. Kivi · Assist: S. Prunn
Kuressaare
43'
S. Burjanadze · Assist: D. Poliakov
Trans Narva
🟨
49'
S. Burjanadze
Trans Narva
🟨
55'
D. Andreas
Kuressaare
🔄
61'
R. Talu ↔ G. Roivassepp
Kuressaare
🔄
74'
A. Skinjov ↔ H. Rowe
Trans Narva
76'
J. Vahermagi · Assist: D. Andreas
Kuressaare
🔄
82'
D. Poliakov ↔ K. Miranda da Silva
Trans Narva
🔄
82'
A. Gero ↔ N. Baljabkin
Trans Narva
🔄
90'
J. Doke ↔ J. Imeh
Trans Narva

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 81.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
81.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Trans Narva Win 71.9%
Draw 28.1%
Kuressaare Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Trans Narva1.95
Kuressaare1.7
Recent Form (Last 5)
Trans Narva Trans Narva
WWDLW
20 GF / 25 GA
Kuressaare Kuressaare
WLDWL
18 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.64
1.79
Average Goals Conceded
2.73
10
BTTS Yes
7
10
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Trans Narva Trans Narva 14 matches
Kuressaare Kuressaare 11 matches
Trans Narva Statistic Kuressaare
3 Wins 3
4 Draws 2
7 Losses 6
20 Goals For 18
25 Goals Against 30
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.64
1.79 Avg Goals Conceded 2.73
10 BTTS Yes 7
12 Over 1.5 10
10 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Kuressaare. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Kuressaare having the stronger overall control.

Trans Narva Analysis

Trans Narva approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 6 points from 6 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 8:11 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Gero (4 goals), S. Agaptsev (2 goals), C. Campagna (1 goals), with creative support from A. Ivanyushin (2 assists), S. Agaptsev (1 assists), C. Campagna (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kuressaare Analysis

Kuressaare approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 6 points from 6 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 defeats with a 7:13 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Kivi (2 goals), R. Talu (2 goals), T. Jurisoo (2 goals), with creative support from R. Talu (2 assists), E. Demidov (1 assists), M. Lukka (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Trans Narva won 3 times, Kuressaare won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:23 from Trans Narva's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (100%)
H2H summary: Trans Narva wins 3, draws 4, Kuressaare wins 8

Lineups

Trans Narva
Formation
Kuressaare
M. Zahharov
M. Zahharov
S. Burjanadze
S. Burjanadze
C. Campagna
C. Campagna
Eriks Santos
Eriks Santos
A. Skinjov
A. Skinjov
S. Agaptsev
S. Agaptsev
G. Slein
G. Slein
D. Poliakov
🎯
D. Poliakov
A. Ivanyushin
A. Ivanyushin
J. Doke
J. Doke
A. Gero
A. Gero
K. Nomm
K. Nomm
J. Vahermagi
J. Vahermagi
M. Dzemesjuk
M. Dzemesjuk
M. Lukka
M. Lukka
S. Prunn
🎯
S. Prunn
S. Sinilaid
S. Sinilaid
D. Andreas
🎯
D. Andreas
E. Demidov
E. Demidov
R. Talu
R. Talu
T. Jurisoo
T. Jurisoo
A. Kivi
A. Kivi
Trans Narva 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
M. Zahharov
25
S. Burjanadze
⚽ 43' 🟨 49'
5
C. Campagna
12
Eriks Santos
17
A. Skinjov
↓ 74'
8
S. Agaptsev
6
G. Slein
39
D. Poliakov
🎯 43' ↓ 82'
4
A. Ivanyushin
9
J. Doke
↓ 90'
10
A. Gero
↓ 82'
Substitutes
31
I. Rebrik
16
S. Kondrattsev
19
Elysee
20
M. Stepanov
23
A. Jegorov
26
H. Rowe
↑ 74'
28
K. Miranda da Silva
↑ 82'
29
V. Kudriashov
47
N. Baljabkin
↑ 82'
70
J. Imeh
↑ 90'
88
A. Besigirskis
Kuressaare 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
31
K. Nomm
68
J. Vahermagi
⚽ 76'
18
M. Dzemesjuk
21
M. Lukka
27
S. Prunn
🎯 15'
5
S. Sinilaid
8
D. Andreas
🎯 76' 🟨 55'
77
E. Demidov
7
R. Talu
↓ 61'
11
T. Jurisoo
10
A. Kivi
⚽ 15'
Substitutes
22
S. Ristna
13
A. Visse
17
G. Roivassepp
↑ 61'
23
R. Saar
25
J. Lonks
28
R. Lukas
36
R. Piil
37
M. Leivategija
44
O. Joost
Last matches: Trans Narva
18.07.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
3
1
W
10.07.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
0
3
L
04.07.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
21.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
0
D
13.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
2
L
30.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
0
3
L
20.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
09.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
2
L
01.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
0
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
7
L
22.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
6
L
11.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
5
L
07.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
3
0
W
03.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
2
L
25.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tartu Welco
2
2
D
Last matches: Kuressaare
19.07.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
0
D
11.07.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
3
L
02.07.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
26.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
13.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
31.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
W
17.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
08.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
0
1
L
02.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
25.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
2
L
21.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
11.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
07.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
03.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
0
1
L
21.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
4
L
14.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
3
2
W
08.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
2
L
21.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
H2H: Trans Narva vs Kuressaare
16.06.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
18.04.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
L
21.02.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
20.09.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
05.07.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
3
2
W
27.04.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
1
L
08.03.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
2
L
08.02.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
1
D
09.11.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
2
L
24.08.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
1
W
19.06.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
1
L
21.04.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
5
0
L
28.10.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
1
0
L
13.08.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
2
0
W
27.06.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
3
0
L
Last matches: Trans Narva
18.07.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
3
1
W
04.07.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
13.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
2
L
20.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
01.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
0
3
L
07.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
3
0
W
21.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
W
07.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
2
L
25.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tartu Welco
2
2
D
11.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Super Nova
1
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Paide
1
1
D
24.01.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
3
4
L
17.01.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tammeka
1
2
L
H2H at home: Trans Narva
18.04.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
L
05.07.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
3
2
W
08.03.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
2
L
08.02.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
1
D
09.11.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
2
L
19.06.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
1
L
13.08.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
2
0
W
Last matches: Kuressaare
11.07.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
3
L
26.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
13.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
31.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
1
1
D
08.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
0
1
L
25.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
2
L
07.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
4
L
08.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
2
L
31.01.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
9
L
24.01.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Viimsi
2
3
L
H2H away: Kuressaare
18.04.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
W
05.07.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
3
2
L
08.03.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
2
W
08.02.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
1
D
09.11.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
2
W
19.06.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
1
W
13.08.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
2
0
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 14 4 1 49:16 33 46
W L D W W
2 19 12 0 7 39:21 18 36
L W W L W
3 20 10 5 5 33:16 17 35
D W D D L
4 20 9 5 6 32:28 4 32
L W D W W
5 20 8 2 10 28:38 -10 26
L W L W L
6 18 8 2 8 21:26 -5 26
L W W W D
7 20 8 1 11 39:46 -7 25
W W L W L
8 20 8 1 11 30:34 -4 25
W W L L L
9 20 5 3 12 19:33 -14 18
D L L L D
10 20 4 1 15 15:47 -32 13
W L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga