ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
11.05.2026 19:00
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Referee: J. Gillett
Tottenham
Match Timeline
Leeds
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
41'
Kevin Danso
Tottenham
50'
M. Tel
Tottenham
🔄
56'
P. Struijk ↔ S. Bornauw
Leeds
🔄
63'
B. Aaronson ↔ L. Nmecha
Leeds
🔄
63'
D. James ↔ W. Gnonto
Leeds
🟨
66'
João Palhinha
Tottenham
VAR
71'
Ethan Ampadu
Leeds
74'
D. Calvert-Lewin
Leeds
🟨
79'
Joe Rodon
Leeds
🔄
81'
R. Bentancur ↔ L. Bergvall
Tottenham
🟨
82'
Pedro Porro
Tottenham
🔄
85'
M. Tel ↔ J. Maddison
Tottenham
🔄
85'
D. Udogie ↔ D. Spence
Tottenham
🔄
90+3'
A. Tanaka ↔ S. Longstaff
Leeds

Tottenham vs Leeds Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 12.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
12.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tottenham Win 44.7%
Draw 17.9%
Leeds Win 37.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tottenham1.47
Leeds1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tottenham Tottenham
WWDLW
70 GF / 72 GA
Leeds Leeds
WLDWL
56 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.49
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
27
BTTS Yes
24
31
Over 2.5
23
4.3
Shots on Goal
4.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tottenham Tottenham 47 matches
Leeds Leeds 40 matches
Tottenham Statistic Leeds
15 Wins 12
13 Draws 15
19 Losses 13
70 Goals For 56
72 Goals Against 57
1.49 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
27 BTTS Yes 24
39 Over 1.5 30
31 Over 2.5 23
16 Over 3.5 16
14 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 12
4.3 Shots On Goal 4.35
11.62 Total Shots 13.35
5.02 Corners 4.68
49.3% Ball Possession 46.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Tottenham appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Leeds. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Leeds. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Tottenham expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Leeds in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Leeds having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Tottenham Analysis

Tottenham sit 17 with 37 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 9 wins, 10 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 45:54, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Richarlison (10 goals), Cristian Romero (4 goals), J. Palhinha (4 goals), with creative support from M. Kudus (5 assists), X. Simons (5 assists), Richarlison (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without M. Kudus, B. Davies, D. Kulusevski, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Leeds Analysis

Leeds approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 43 points from 35 matches. Their record of 10 wins, 13 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 47:52, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Calvert-Lewin (12 goals), Noah Okafor (8 goals), L. Nmecha (6 goals), with creative support from Brenden Aaronson (5 assists), Anton Stach (3 assists), Ilia Gruev (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with G. Gudmundsson, P. Struijk, I. Gruev unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Tottenham won 6 times, Leeds won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:12 from Tottenham's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.78 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.1%)
Predicted formations: Tottenham 4-2-3-1 / Leeds 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Tottenham 8, Leeds 4
H2H summary: Tottenham wins 6, draws 1, Leeds wins 2

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14
Leeds Away
38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship