🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
02.05.2026 17:00
BMO Field
Referee: Michael Venne, Canada
Toronto FC
Match Timeline
San Jose Earthquakes
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
Dániel Sallói · Assist: Jonathan Osorio
Toronto FC
13'
Preston Judd · Assist: Niko Tsakiris
San Jose Earthquakes
🟨
17'
Beau Leroux
San Jose Earthquakes
🟨
37'
Ronaldo Vieira
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
46'
Lazar Stefanovic ↔ Micah Chisholm
Toronto FC
🔄
54'
Niko Tsakiris ↔ Nick Fernandez
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
66'
Jack Skahan ↔ Ian Harkes
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
66'
Preston Judd ↔ Paul Marie
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
67'
Malik Henry ↔ Derrick Etienne
Toronto FC
🔄
68'
Emilio Aristizábal ↔ Deandre Kerr
Toronto FC
🟨
75'
Jonathan Osorio
Toronto FC
🔄
75'
Markus Cimermancic ↔ Antone Bossenberry
Toronto FC
🟨
90+1'
Alonso Coello
Toronto FC
🔄
90'
Zane Monlouis ↔ Walker Zimmerman
Toronto FC

Toronto FC vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 71.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 93.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
71.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
93.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Toronto FC Win 25.3%
Draw 3.1%
San Jose Earthquakes Win 71.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toronto FC1.36
San Jose Earthquakes1.97
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WWDLW
27 GF / 24 GA
San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes
WLDWL
31 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.8
Average Goals Scored
2.21
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
0.71
11
BTTS Yes
5
10
Over 2.5
7
5
Shots on Goal
6.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toronto FC Toronto FC 15 matches
San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 14 matches
Toronto FC Statistic San Jose Earthquakes
6 Wins 12
5 Draws 0
4 Losses 2
27 Goals For 31
24 Goals Against 10
1.8 Avg Goals Scored 2.21
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 0.71
11 BTTS Yes 5
13 Over 1.5 10
10 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 7
2 Failed To Score 2
5 Shots On Goal 6.1
11.8 Total Shots 15.8
6 Corners 7.5
47.8% Ball Possession 49.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around San Jose Earthquakes's more proactive style and Toronto FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward San Jose Earthquakes. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toronto FC expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and San Jose Earthquakes in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward San Jose Earthquakes having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. San Jose Earthquakes look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. San Jose Earthquakes carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 27 points while Toronto FC sit 6 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Toronto FC Analysis

So far, Toronto FC have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 13 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, while the 17:19 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Salloi (3 goals), J. Sargent (2 goals), K. Franklin (2 goals), with creative support from D. Salloi (2 assists), D. Mihailovic (2 assists), A. Coello (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

San Jose Earthquakes Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 27 points from 10 games, San Jose Earthquakes bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 9 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 25:6, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by P. Judd (6 goals), O. Bouda (5 goals), T. Werner (4 goals), with creative support from T. Werner (3 assists), Niko Tsakiris (3 assists), B. Leroux (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Toronto FC won 3 times, San Jose Earthquakes won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:16 from Toronto FC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.75 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.9%)
Predicted formations: Toronto FC 4-1-4-1 / San Jose Earthquakes 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Toronto FC 10, San Jose Earthquakes 4
H2H summary: Toronto FC wins 3, draws 5, San Jose Earthquakes wins 4

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 9 6 10 46:39 7 33
W W W W D
8 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
9 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)