🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
09.05.2026 17:00
BMO Field
Referee: Victor Rivas, USA
Toronto FC
Match Timeline
Inter Miami
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
44'
Rodrigo De Paul
Inter Miami
🟨
51'
Raheem Edwards
Toronto FC
56'
Luis Suárez · Assist: Lionel Messi
Inter Miami
🟨
61'
Luis Suárez
Inter Miami
🔄
65'
Markus Cimermancic ↔ Derrick Etienne
Toronto FC
🔄
65'
Deandre Kerr ↔ Emilio Aristizábal
Toronto FC
🔄
68'
Noah Allen ↔ Sergio Reguilón
Inter Miami
🔄
70'
Raheem Edwards ↔ Micah Chisholm
Toronto FC
73'
Sergio Reguilón · Assist: Lionel Messi
Inter Miami
75'
Lionel Messi · Assist: Rodrigo De Paul
Inter Miami
🔄
78'
Yannick Bright ↔ David Ayala
Inter Miami
🔄
78'
Luis Suárez ↔ Daniel Pinter
Inter Miami
🔄
78'
Telasco Segovia ↔ Preston Plambeck
Inter Miami
82'
Emilio Aristizábal · Assist: Dániel Sallói
Toronto FC
🟨
89'
Daniel Pinter
Inter Miami
90'
Emilio Aristizábal · Assist: Kobe Franklin
Toronto FC

Toronto FC vs Inter Miami Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 70.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
70.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Toronto FC Win 24.9%
Draw 4.4%
Inter Miami Win 70.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toronto FC1.69
Inter Miami1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WWDLW
28 GF / 25 GA
Inter Miami Inter Miami
WLDWL
29 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.75
Average Goals Scored
1.71
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.59
12
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
12
4.73
Shots on Goal
6.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toronto FC Toronto FC 16 matches
Inter Miami Inter Miami 17 matches
Toronto FC Statistic Inter Miami
6 Wins 7
6 Draws 7
4 Losses 3
28 Goals For 29
25 Goals Against 27
1.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.59
12 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 15
10 Over 2.5 12
6 Over 3.5 7
2 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 4
4.73 Shots On Goal 6.08
11.73 Total Shots 15.15
6.18 Corners 5.46
47.8% Ball Possession 58.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Inter Miami's more proactive style and Toronto FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Inter Miami. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toronto FC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Inter Miami in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Inter Miami having the stronger overall control.

Toronto FC Analysis

So far, Toronto FC have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 14 points from 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, while the 18:20 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Salloi (4 goals), J. Sargent (2 goals), K. Franklin (2 goals), with creative support from D. Salloi (2 assists), D. Mihailovic (2 assists), A. Coello (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Inter Miami Analysis

Placed 3 with 19 points from 11 outings, Inter Miami continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, while the 22:19 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Messi (8 goals), G. Berterame (3 goals), L. Suarez (2 goals), with creative support from Telasco Segovia (5 assists), G. Berterame (2 assists), M. Silvetti (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Toronto FC won 2 times, Inter Miami won 10 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:29 from Toronto FC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Toronto FC 4-2-3-1 / Inter Miami 3-4-3
Missing players: Toronto FC 11, Inter Miami 4
H2H summary: Toronto FC wins 2, draws 2, Inter Miami wins 10

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 9 6 10 46:39 7 33
W W W W D
8 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
9 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)