Login Register
🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
10.10.2026 17:00
BMO Field
Referee: Allen Chapman, USA
Toronto FC
Match Timeline
CF Montreal
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
23'
L. Gavran ↔ W. Yarbrough
Toronto FC
⚽
51'
D. Rios
CF Montreal
🟨
55'
Brayan Vera
CF Montreal
🔄
61'
J. Osorio ↔ D. Mihailovic
Toronto FC
🔄
72'
V. Loturi ↔ S. Piette
CF Montreal
🔄
72'
A. Sanchez ↔ F. Herbers
CF Montreal
🔄
82'
A. Coello ↔ L. Morgan
Toronto FC
🟨
84'
Brandan Craig
CF Montreal
🔄
86'
B. Craig ↔ E. Morales
CF Montreal
🔄
86'
D. Rios ↔ W. Carmona
CF Montreal
🟨
87'
Luca Petrasso
CF Montreal
🟨
90+6'
Richie Laryea
Toronto FC
⚽
90'
L. Morgan · Assist: N. Dorsch
Toronto FC
⚽
90'
D. Mihailovic · Assist: T. Corbeanu
Toronto FC

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.3%
Odds 1.95
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.56
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.3%
1.95 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.50 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.56 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Toronto FC Win 77.3%
Draw 6.6%
CF Montreal Win 16.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toronto FC1.73
CF Montreal1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WWDLW
49 GF / 56 GA
CF Montreal CF Montreal
WLDWL
44 GF / 65 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.75
Average Goals Conceded
2.03
24
BTTS Yes
18
21
Over 2.5
21
4.37
Shots on Goal
4.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toronto FC Toronto FC 32 matches
CF Montreal CF Montreal 32 matches
Toronto FC Statistic CF Montreal
9 Wins 8
12 Draws 6
11 Losses 18
49 Goals For 44
56 Goals Against 65
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Avg Goals Conceded 2.03
24 BTTS Yes 18
28 Over 1.5 27
21 Over 2.5 21
11 Over 3.5 13
4 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 11
4.37 Shots On Goal 4.78
12.07 Total Shots 13
4.93 Corners 5.07
45.1% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toronto FC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and CF Montreal in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward CF Montreal having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors CF Montreal.

Toronto FC Analysis

Toronto FC sit 13 with 29 points after 27 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 6 wins, 11 draws, and 10 defeats with a 39:51 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Sargent (5 goals), D. Sallói (4 goals), Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga (4 goals), with creative support from D. Sallói (4 assists), K. Franklin (2 assists), T. Corbeanu (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

CF Montreal Analysis

CF Montreal approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 24 points from 27 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 15 defeats with a 34:54 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on P. Owusu (7 goals), D. Ríos (4 goals), M. Longstaff (2 goals), with creative support from P. Owusu (5 assists), M. Longstaff (3 assists), D. Ríos (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toronto FC won 4 times, CF Montreal won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:22 from Toronto FC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.4%)
Predicted formations: Toronto FC 4-4-2 / CF Montreal 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Toronto FC 2, CF Montreal 3
H2H summary: Toronto FC wins 4, draws 4, CF Montreal wins 7

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 20 6 3 63:22 41 66
W W W W D
2 29 14 10 5 70:50 20 52
W W L D D
3 29 15 4 10 48:41 7 49
W L L W W
4 29 14 6 9 52:43 9 48
L W W W L
5 29 13 7 9 51:43 8 46
L W L W D
6 29 13 6 10 59:46 13 45
W W W W W
7 29 11 5 13 54:69 -15 38
D W L L W
8 29 10 6 13 39:54 -15 36
L W L W W
9 28 9 9 10 60:68 -8 36
L W L D D
10 29 8 9 12 42:40 2 33
L L D L W
11 29 7 12 10 44:55 -11 33
D W L L L
12 28 7 12 9 36:47 -11 33
W L D L D
13 29 9 5 15 44:47 -3 32
W L W W L
14 29 8 6 15 36:48 -12 30
W L D W D
15 29 6 6 17 35:59 -24 24
L L W L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)