31.05.2026 00:00
Penalties 6-5
1 - 1
Estadio Nemesio Diez
Referee: I. Elfath
Toluca
Match Timeline
Tigres UANL
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
52'
M. Ruiz ↔ F. Arce
Toluca
🔄
63'
O. Herrera ↔ M. Flores
Tigres UANL
🔄
68'
R. Aguirre ↔ J. Brunetta
Tigres UANL
🔄
68'
V. Lorona ↔ M. Farfan
Tigres UANL
🔄
70'
J. Angulo ↔ P. Perez
Toluca
🔄
78'
↔ A. Gignac
Tigres UANL
🔄
78'
C. Araujo ↔ D. A. Sanchez Guevara
Tigres UANL
🟨
87'
Everardo López
Toluca
🔄
89'
N. Castro ↔ D. Barbosa
Toluca
🔄
89'
Helinho ↔ J. Diaz
Toluca
🟨
90+3'
Diego Lainez
Tigres UANL
🔄
91'
E. del Villar ↔ M. Isais
Toluca
🟨
96'
Mauricio Isais
Toluca
🔄
101'
Paulinho ↔ S. Cordova
Toluca
104'
J. Diaz · Assist: F. Arce
Toluca
🔄
109'
J. Garza ↔ J. Sanchez
Tigres UANL
114'
Joaquim · Assist: J. Brunetta
Tigres UANL

Toluca vs Tigres UANL Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 59.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
59.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Toluca Win 61.3%
Draw 9.7%
Tigres UANL Win 29%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toluca2.2
Tigres UANL1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toluca Toluca
WWDLW
18 GF / 7 GA
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL
WLDWL
15 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
3
Average Goals Scored
1.67
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1
3
BTTS Yes
4
6
Over 2.5
4
7.67
Shots on Goal
5.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toluca Toluca 6 matches
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 9 matches
Toluca Statistic Tigres UANL
4 Wins 5
0 Draws 2
2 Losses 2
18 Goals For 15
7 Goals Against 9
3 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1
3 BTTS Yes 4
6 Over 1.5 6
6 Over 2.5 4
4 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 4
0 Failed To Score 2
7.67 Shots On Goal 5.25
19.67 Total Shots 15.13
4.17 Corners 5.63
61% Ball Possession 54.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toluca won 6 times, Tigres UANL won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:23 from Toluca's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.3%)
Predicted formations: Toluca 4-1-4-1 / Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Toluca wins 6, draws 4, Tigres UANL wins 5