Toluca vs Santos Laguna Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
79.5%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
58.8%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
72%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Toluca
Santos Laguna
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Toluca
17 matches
Santos Laguna
11 matches
| Toluca | Statistic | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Wins | 3 |
| 3 | Draws | 1 |
| 4 | Losses | 7 |
| 40 | Goals For | 10 |
| 18 | Goals Against | 15 |
| 2.35 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.91 |
| 1.06 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.36 |
| 9 | BTTS Yes | 4 |
| 14 | Over 1.5 | 6 |
| 12 | Over 2.5 | 5 |
| 8 | Over 3.5 | 2 |
| 7 | Clean Sheets | 2 |
| 2 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 6.27 | Shots On Goal | 3.63 |
| 17.8 | Total Shots | 13.13 |
| 5 | Corners | 7.63 |
| 59.7% | Ball Possession | 49.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Toluca's more proactive style and Santos Laguna's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Toluca come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toluca expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Santos Laguna in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Santos Laguna having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Santos Laguna. Toluca arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 16 points compared to Santos Laguna in 17 on 1, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.
Toluca come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 16 points after 7 matches. With 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 17:6, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Vega (2 goals), J. Gallardo (1 goals), J. Angulo (1 goals), with creative support from Helinho (2 assists), J. Gallardo (1 assists), J. Angulo (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.
With 1 points from 7 games and a place of 17, Santos Laguna still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats with a 4:12 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on E. Bullaude (1 goals), E. Aguirre (1 goals), Lucas Di Yorio (1 goals), with creative support from E. Bullaude (1 assists), Felipe Sánchez (1 assists), M. Cuevas (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Toluca won 9 times, Santos Laguna won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 31:22 from Toluca's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.79 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22:11 | 11 | 21 |
D
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 2 |
Toluca
Home
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25:15 | 10 | 20 |
L
D
L
W
W
|
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:8 | 7 | 20 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18:11 | 7 | 19 |
D
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 5 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15:12 | 3 | 18 |
D
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 6 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17:18 | -1 | 18 |
D
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 7 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22:21 | 1 | 17 |
D
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15:14 | 1 | 15 |
D
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12:13 | -1 | 15 |
D
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 10 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:15 | 2 | 14 |
D
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 11 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18:14 | 4 | 13 |
D
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 12 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 17:19 | -2 | 13 |
D
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 13 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13:15 | -2 | 13 |
W
W
L
D
D
|
|
| 14 |
Santos Laguna
Away
|
11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 12:16 | -4 | 13 |
W
W
W
W
L
|
| 15 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15:20 | -5 | 12 |
L
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12:17 | -5 | 11 |
L
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 17 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 15:23 | -8 | 9 |
D
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 18 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8:26 | -18 | 4 |
D
L
W
L
L
|