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MEXICO › LIGA MX
21.09.2026 00:00
Estadio Nemesio Diez
Referee: Luis Alfredo Garcia Rodriguez
Toluca
Match Timeline
Santos Laguna
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
25'
F. Vinas · Assist: A. Vega
Toluca
🟨
38'
Nicolás Castro
Toluca
⚽
43'
Paulinho · Assist: A. Vega
Toluca
🟨
45+4'
Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich
Toluca
VAR
45+7'
Everardo Lopez
Toluca
🟥
45+7'
Everardo Lopez
Toluca
🟨
45+8'
Facundo Cáseres
Santos Laguna
⚽
45'
E. Bullaude
Santos Laguna
🔄
46'
S. Mariscal Murra ↔ F. Villalba
Santos Laguna
🔄
46'
E. Echeverria ↔ D. Gonzalez
Santos Laguna
🔄
66'
F. Vinas ↔ J. Angulo
Toluca
🔄
66'
A. Vega ↔ J. Diaz Price
Toluca
🔄
69'
E. Bullaude ↔ E. Aguirre
Santos Laguna
🔄
69'
L. Gomez ↔ K. Palacios
Santos Laguna
🔄
75'
F. Caseres ↔ J. Guemez
Santos Laguna
🔄
81'
Paulinho ↔ Luan
Toluca
⚽
86'
K. Palacios · Assist: F. Villalba
Santos Laguna
VAR
90+3'
Eduardo Aguirre
Santos Laguna
🔄
90+1'
N. Castro ↔ B. A. Garcia Caprizo
Toluca
⚽
90'
F. Villalba · Assist: M. Cuevas
Santos Laguna

Toluca vs Santos Laguna Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Toluca Win 79.5%
Draw 4.5%
Santos Laguna Win 16%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toluca1.95
Santos Laguna0.97
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toluca Toluca
WWDLW
40 GF / 18 GA
Santos Laguna Santos Laguna
WLDWL
10 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
2.35
Average Goals Scored
0.91
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
9
BTTS Yes
4
12
Over 2.5
5
6.27
Shots on Goal
3.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toluca Toluca 17 matches
Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 11 matches
Toluca Statistic Santos Laguna
10 Wins 3
3 Draws 1
4 Losses 7
40 Goals For 10
18 Goals Against 15
2.35 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
9 BTTS Yes 4
14 Over 1.5 6
12 Over 2.5 5
8 Over 3.5 2
7 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 6
6.27 Shots On Goal 3.63
17.8 Total Shots 13.13
5 Corners 7.63
59.7% Ball Possession 49.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Toluca's more proactive style and Santos Laguna's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Toluca come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toluca expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Santos Laguna in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Santos Laguna having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Santos Laguna. Toluca arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 16 points compared to Santos Laguna in 17 on 1, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Toluca Analysis

Toluca come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 16 points after 7 matches. With 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 17:6, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Vega (2 goals), J. Gallardo (1 goals), J. Angulo (1 goals), with creative support from Helinho (2 assists), J. Gallardo (1 assists), J. Angulo (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Santos Laguna Analysis

With 1 points from 7 games and a place of 17, Santos Laguna still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats with a 4:12 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on E. Bullaude (1 goals), E. Aguirre (1 goals), Lucas Di Yorio (1 goals), with creative support from E. Bullaude (1 assists), Felipe Sánchez (1 assists), M. Cuevas (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Toluca won 9 times, Santos Laguna won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 31:22 from Toluca's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.79 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Toluca 4-2-3-1 / Santos Laguna 3-4-3
H2H summary: Toluca wins 9, draws 1, Santos Laguna wins 4

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 22:11 11 21
D W D L W
2 11 6 2 3 25:15 10 20
L D L W W
3 10 6 2 2 15:8 7 20
W W D W W
4 11 5 4 2 18:11 7 19
D L D W W
5 11 5 3 3 15:12 3 18
D W D W L
6 11 5 3 3 17:18 -1 18
D W D L D
7 11 5 2 4 22:21 1 17
D D L W W
8 10 4 3 3 15:14 1 15
D L D L W
9 11 4 3 4 12:13 -1 15
D L D L W
10 10 4 2 4 17:15 2 14
D L W D L
11 11 3 4 4 18:14 4 13
D L D W W
12 11 3 4 4 17:19 -2 13
D L D L W
13 11 3 4 4 13:15 -2 13
W W L D D
14 11 4 1 6 12:16 -4 13
W W W W L
15 11 3 3 5 15:20 -5 12
L W W L L
16 11 2 5 4 12:17 -5 11
L W D L D
17 11 2 3 6 15:23 -8 9
D L L L D
18 11 1 1 9 8:26 -18 4
D L W L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)