Toluca
Match Timeline
Guadalajara Chivas
Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
All Markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|
Probability Distribution
Toluca Win 0%
Draw 0%
Guadalajara Chivas Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toluca1.66
Guadalajara Chivas1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toluca
WWDLW
59 GF / 26 GA
Guadalajara Chivas
WLDWL
43 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.97
Average Goals Scored
1.65
0.87
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
15
BTTS Yes
14
16
Over 2.5
15
5.67
Shots on Goal
4.54
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Toluca
30 matches
Guadalajara Chivas
26 matches
| Toluca | Statistic | Guadalajara Chivas |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wins | 15 |
| 8 | Draws | 3 |
| 4 | Losses | 8 |
| 59 | Goals For | 43 |
| 26 | Goals Against | 31 |
| 1.97 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.65 |
| 0.87 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.19 |
| 15 | BTTS Yes | 14 |
| 20 | Over 1.5 | 18 |
| 16 | Over 2.5 | 15 |
| 12 | Over 3.5 | 7 |
| 12 | Clean Sheets | 8 |
| 8 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 5.67 | Shots On Goal | 4.54 |
| 17.27 | Total Shots | 14.54 |
| 5.53 | Corners | 5.42 |
| 55.6% | Ball Possession | 54.6% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
H2H Analysis
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toluca won 5 times, Guadalajara Chivas won 3 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:13 from Toluca's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.
Predicted formations: Toluca 4-2-3-1 / Guadalajara Chivas 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Toluca wins 5, draws 7, Guadalajara Chivas wins 3
Standings
Liga MX, Clausura 2026
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 34:17 | 17 | 36 |
L
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 2 |
Guadalajara Chivas
Away
|
17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 33:17 | 16 | 36 |
L
D
W
L
D
|
| 3 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 31:18 | 13 | 33 |
W
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 25:19 | 6 | 31 |
L
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 5 |
Toluca
Home
|
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 28:16 | 12 | 30 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
| 6 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 16:18 | -2 | 26 |
L
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 7 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28:18 | 10 | 25 |
L
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 8 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 20:17 | 3 | 25 |
D
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 19:17 | 2 | 23 |
D
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 22:32 | -10 | 22 |
L
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 11 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 20 |
W
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 12 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 26:32 | -6 | 19 |
W
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 22:24 | -2 | 18 |
L
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 14 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 24:27 | -3 | 18 |
L
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 15 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 19:25 | -6 | 18 |
L
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 16 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 22:37 | -15 | 15 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13:26 | -13 | 13 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 18 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 20:38 | -18 | 12 |
W
L
L
L
D
|
Playoffs