MEXICO › LIGA MX

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Toluca

0 - 1

CF Pachuca

Estadio Nemesio Diez

Referee: H. Gomez

Toluca

Match Timeline

CF Pachuca

0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'

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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

No Draw

Probability 79.4%

Odds -

BTTS

BTTS Yes

Probability 89.2%

Odds -

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Probability 83.3%

Odds -

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	No Draw	79.4%	-	▥
BTTS	BTTS Yes	89.2%	-	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Over 2.5	83.3%	-	▥
Corners O/U	Over 7.5 Corners	90.4%	-	▥
HT / FT	Home / Home	-	-	▥
Correct Score	2-1	-	-	▥

Probability Distribution

Toluca Win 45.3%

Draw 20.6%

CF Pachuca Win 34.2%

Expected Goals (xG)

Toluca1.65

CF Pachuca1.23

Recent Form (Last 5)

Toluca

WWDLW

78 GF / 40 GA

CF Pachuca

WLDWL

50 GF / 43 GA

Key Stats

1.95

Average Goals Scored

1.39

Average Goals Conceded

1.19

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

5.78

Shots on Goal

4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toluca 40 matches

CF Pachuca 36 matches

Toluca	Statistic	CF Pachuca
22	Wins	16
11	Draws	8
7	Losses	12
78	Goals For	50
40	Goals Against	43
1.95	Avg Goals Scored	1.39
1	Avg Goals Conceded	1.19
23	BTTS Yes	20
29	Over 1.5	28
21	Over 2.5	19
16	Over 3.5	9
13	Clean Sheets	7
9	Failed To Score	11
5.78	Shots On Goal	4.5
17.45	Total Shots	14.06
5.55	Corners	4.67
56.4%	Ball Possession	49.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toluca won 5 times, CF Pachuca won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:31 from Toluca's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw

BTTS: BTTS Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Highest model probability: 12 (79.4%)

Predicted formations: Toluca 4-2-3-1 / CF Pachuca 4-2-3-1

H2H summary: Toluca wins 5, draws 3, CF Pachuca wins 7

Standings

Liga MX, Clausura 2026

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	17	10	6	1	34:17	17	36	L D W L D
2	Guadalajara Chivas	17	11	3	3	33:17	16	36	L D W L D
3	Cruz Azul	17	9	6	2	31:18	13	33	W D W D W
4	CF Pachuca Away	17	9	4	4	25:19	6	31	L W W W L
5	Toluca Home	17	8	6	3	28:16	12	30	L L W L L
6	Atlas	17	7	5	5	16:18	-2	26	L L W D W
7	Tigres UANL	17	7	4	6	28:18	10	25	L W W D D
8	Club America	17	7	4	6	20:17	3	25	D D L W W
9	Club Tijuana	17	5	8	4	19:17	2	23	D W D W W
10	Leon	17	7	1	9	22:32	-10	22	L L W W W
11	Club Queretaro	17	4	8	5	17:21	-4	20	W D D W D
12	FC Juarez	17	5	4	8	26:32	-6	19	W L L L D
13	Monterrey	17	5	3	9	22:24	-2	18	L W L D L
14	Atletico San Luis	17	5	3	9	24:27	-3	18	L W L D W
15	Necaxa	17	5	3	9	19:25	-6	18	L D D L W
16	Mazatlán	17	4	3	10	22:37	-15	15	L W D L L
17	Puebla	17	3	4	10	13:26	-13	13	L L L L D
18	Santos Laguna	17	3	3	11	20:38	-18	12	W L L L D

Playoffs