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MEXICO › LIGA MX
--.--.---- --:--
Toluca
FT
0 - 1
CF Pachuca
Estadio Nemesio Diez
Referee: H. Gomez
Toluca
Match Timeline
CF Pachuca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
8'
E. Valencia · Assist: E. Montiel
CF Pachuca
🟨
41'
Alan Bautista
CF Pachuca
🔄
60'
D. Barbosa ↔ S. Simon
Toluca
🔄
60'
S. Cordova ↔ Paulinho
Toluca
🔄
60'
J. Angulo ↔ N. Castro
Toluca
🔄
64'
O. Idrissi ↔ A. Dominguez
CF Pachuca
🔄
75'
P. Perez ↔ F. Rossi
Toluca
🔄
75'
C. Sanchez ↔ R. Lopez
CF Pachuca
🟨
76'
Alek Álvarez
Toluca
🔄
82'
A. Alvarez ↔ M. Isais
Toluca
🟨
90+7'
Sergio Rodríguez
CF Pachuca
🔄
90'
Kenedy ↔ J. Berlanga
CF Pachuca
🔄
90'
E. Montiel ↔ S. Rodriguez
CF Pachuca

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 79.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 89.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 83.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
79.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
89.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
83.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Toluca Win 45.3%
Draw 20.6%
CF Pachuca Win 34.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toluca1.65
CF Pachuca1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toluca Toluca
WWDLW
78 GF / 40 GA
CF Pachuca CF Pachuca
WLDWL
50 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.95
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
23
BTTS Yes
20
21
Over 2.5
19
5.78
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toluca Toluca 40 matches
CF Pachuca CF Pachuca 36 matches
Toluca Statistic CF Pachuca
22 Wins 16
11 Draws 8
7 Losses 12
78 Goals For 50
40 Goals Against 43
1.95 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
23 BTTS Yes 20
29 Over 1.5 28
21 Over 2.5 19
16 Over 3.5 9
13 Clean Sheets 7
9 Failed To Score 11
5.78 Shots On Goal 4.5
17.45 Total Shots 14.06
5.55 Corners 4.67
56.4% Ball Possession 49.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toluca won 5 times, CF Pachuca won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:31 from Toluca's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.4%)
Predicted formations: Toluca 4-2-3-1 / CF Pachuca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Toluca wins 5, draws 3, CF Pachuca wins 7
Stats
Toluca Toluca
CF Pachuca CF Pachuca
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
10
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
4
10 Corner Kicks 4
10 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 1
72% Ball Possession 28%
16 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Goal 6
10 Shots off Goal 5
2 Blocked Shots 4
7 Shots insidebox 10
9 Shots outsidebox 5
5 Goalkeeper Saves 4
600 Total passes 240
536 Passes accurate 170
0.63 expected_goals 1.27
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Toluca
Formation
CF Pachuca
L. Garcia
L. Garcia
D. Barbosa
↓
D. Barbosa
Bruno Mendez
Bruno Mendez
E. del Villar
E. del Villar
A. Alvarez
↓
A. Alvarez
F. Romero
F. Romero
M. Ruiz
M. Ruiz
S. Cordova
↓
S. Cordova
J. Angulo
↓
J. Angulo
P. Perez
↓
P. Perez
J. Diaz
J. Diaz
C. Moreno
C. Moreno
C. Sanchez
↓
C. Sanchez
Eduardo Bauermann
Eduardo Bauermann
S. D. Barreto
S. D. Barreto
A. Bautista
A. Bautista
C. Rivera
C. Rivera
V. Guzman
V. Guzman
Kenedy
↓
Kenedy
E. Montiel
🎯 ↓
E. Montiel
O. Idrissi
↓
O. Idrissi
E. Valencia
⚽
E. Valencia
Toluca 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
L. Garcia
G
2
D. Barbosa
↓ 60'
D
4
Bruno Mendez
D
25
E. del Villar
D
35
A. Alvarez
↓ 82' 🟨 76'
D
5
F. Romero
M
14
M. Ruiz
M
7
S. Cordova
↓ 60'
M
10
J. Angulo
↓ 60'
M
15
P. Perez
↓ 75'
M
29
J. Diaz
F
Substitutes
1
H. Gonzalez
G
24
F. Arce
M
19
S. Simon
↑ 60'
M
17
M. Isais
↑ 82'
D
206
E. Orta
D
33
V. Arteaga
M
26
Paulinho
↑ 60'
F
8
N. Castro
↑ 60'
M
27
F. Rossi
↑ 75'
F
CF Pachuca 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
25
C. Moreno
G
14
C. Sanchez
↓ 75'
D
4
Eduardo Bauermann
D
2
S. D. Barreto
D
26
A. Bautista
🟨 41'
D
16
C. Rivera
M
8
V. Guzman
M
29
Kenedy
↓ 90'
M
28
E. Montiel
🎯 8' ↓ 90'
M
11
O. Idrissi
↓ 64'
M
10
E. Valencia
⚽ 8'
F
Substitutes
31
J. Eulogio
G
7
L. Quinones
F
21
R. Lopez
↑ 75'
D
187
G. Alvarez
F
18
A. Dominguez
↑ 64'
F
13
J. Berlanga
↑ 90'
D
5
P. Pedraza
M
184
C. Alfaro
D
188
S. Rodriguez
↑ 90'
139
J. Ramirez
F
Last matches: Toluca
22.07.26
Lig
Toluca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
2
L
19.07.26
Lig
Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
2
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Toluca
Atlante FC
3
3
D
04.07.26
Fri
Toluca
Cancún
0
1
L
31.05.26
CON
Toluca
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
10.05.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
2
L
07.05.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
4
0
W
30.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
1
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Leon
4
1
W
23.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Mazatlán
3
4
L
19.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Club America
1
2
L
16.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
3
0
W
13.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Atletico San Luis
1
1
D
09.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
4
2
W
04.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Club Queretaro
0
1
L
22.03.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
1
1
D
19.03.26
CON
Toluca
San Diego
4
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Toluca
Atlas
1
1
D
12.03.26
CON
Toluca
San Diego
2
3
L
08.03.26
Lig
Toluca
FC Juarez
3
1
W
Last matches: CF Pachuca
18.07.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3
0
W
04.07.26
Fri
CF Pachuca
Puebla
3
1
W
18.05.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0
1
L
15.05.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Toluca
2
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0
2
L
23.04.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Club Tijuana
1
3
L
19.04.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Monterrey
3
1
W
12.04.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Santos Laguna
4
2
W
05.04.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Cruz Azul
2
1
W
22.03.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Toluca
1
1
D
14.03.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Atletico San Luis
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Puebla
2
1
W
04.03.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Necaxa
2
1
W
28.02.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Mazatlán
0
1
L
21.02.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Tigres UANL
2
1
W
14.02.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Atlas
3
1
W
08.02.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
FC Juarez
2
0
W
01.02.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Club Queretaro
0
0
D
19.01.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Club America
0
0
D
H2H: Toluca vs CF Pachuca
10.05.26
H2H
CF Pachuca
Toluca
2
0
L
04.05.26
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
1
L
22.03.26
H2H
CF Pachuca
Toluca
1
1
D
27.10.25
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
2
2
D
29.03.25
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
3
2
W
18.09.24
H2H
CF Pachuca
Toluca
2
2
D
31.03.24
H2H
CF Pachuca
Toluca
2
3
W
03.09.23
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
5
0
W
20.02.23
H2H
CF Pachuca
Toluca
1
2
W
31.10.22
H2H
CF Pachuca
Toluca
3
1
L
28.10.22
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
1
5
L
28.08.22
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
1
4
L
13.03.22
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
3
L
14.09.21
H2H
CF Pachuca
Toluca
1
2
W
14.03.21
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
2
L
Last matches: Toluca
22.07.26
Lig
Toluca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
2
L
31.05.26
CON
Toluca
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
4
0
W
26.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Leon
4
1
W
13.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Atletico San Luis
1
1
D
09.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
4
2
W
19.03.26
CON
Toluca
San Diego
4
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Toluca
Atlas
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Toluca
FC Juarez
3
1
W
28.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
2
0
W
14.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Club Tijuana
1
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Cruz Azul
1
1
D
15.01.26
Lig
Toluca
Santos Laguna
3
1
W
15.12.25
Lig
Toluca
Tigres UANL
2
1
W
07.12.25
Lig
Toluca
Monterrey
3
2
W
30.11.25
Lig
Toluca
FC Juarez
0
0
D
09.11.25
Lig
Toluca
Club America
2
0
W
27.10.25
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
2
2
D
18.10.25
Lig
Toluca
Club Queretaro
4
0
W
28.09.25
Lig
Toluca
Mazatlán
3
1
W
H2H at home: Toluca
04.05.26
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
1
L
27.10.25
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
2
2
D
29.03.25
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
3
2
W
03.09.23
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
5
0
W
28.10.22
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
1
5
L
28.08.22
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
1
4
L
13.03.22
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
3
L
14.03.21
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
2
L
Last matches: CF Pachuca
18.07.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3
0
W
18.05.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0
1
L
23.04.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Club Tijuana
1
3
L
19.04.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Monterrey
3
1
W
05.04.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Cruz Azul
2
1
W
14.03.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Atletico San Luis
1
1
D
28.02.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Mazatlán
0
1
L
21.02.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Tigres UANL
2
1
W
01.02.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Club Queretaro
0
0
D
10.01.26
Lig
CF Pachuca
Guadalajara Chivas
0
2
L
24.11.25
Lig
CF Pachuca
FC Juarez
1
2
L
09.11.25
Lig
CF Pachuca
Santos Laguna
0
1
L
27.10.25
Lig
CF Pachuca
Toluca
2
2
D
18.10.25
Lig
CF Pachuca
FC Juarez
2
2
D
04.10.25
Lig
CF Pachuca
Necaxa
1
0
W
24.09.25
Lig
CF Pachuca
Puebla
2
2
D
31.08.25
Lig
CF Pachuca
Club America
0
2
L
23.08.25
Lig
CF Pachuca
Leon
1
1
D
10.08.25
Lig
CF Pachuca
Atlas
3
0
W
20.07.25
Lig
CF Pachuca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3
2
W
H2H away: CF Pachuca
04.05.26
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
1
W
27.10.25
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
2
2
D
29.03.25
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
3
2
L
03.09.23
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
5
0
L
28.10.22
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
1
5
W
28.08.22
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
1
4
W
13.03.22
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
3
W
14.03.21
H2H
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
2
W

Standings

Liga MX, Clausura 2026
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
17 10 6 1 34:17 17 36
L D W L D
2
Guadalajara Chivas
17 11 3 3 33:17 16 36
L D W L D
3
Cruz Azul
17 9 6 2 31:18 13 33
W D W D W
4
CF Pachuca Away
17 9 4 4 25:19 6 31
L W W W L
5
Toluca Home
17 8 6 3 28:16 12 30
L L W L L
6
Atlas
17 7 5 5 16:18 -2 26
L L W D W
7
Tigres UANL
17 7 4 6 28:18 10 25
L W W D D
8
Club America
17 7 4 6 20:17 3 25
D D L W W
9
Club Tijuana
17 5 8 4 19:17 2 23
D W D W W
10
Leon
17 7 1 9 22:32 -10 22
L L W W W
11
Club Queretaro
17 4 8 5 17:21 -4 20
W D D W D
12
FC Juarez
17 5 4 8 26:32 -6 19
W L L L D
13
Monterrey
17 5 3 9 22:24 -2 18
L W L D L
14
Atletico San Luis
17 5 3 9 24:27 -3 18
L W L D W
15
Necaxa
17 5 3 9 19:25 -6 18
L D D L W
16
Mazatlán
17 4 3 10 22:37 -15 15
L W D L L
17
Puebla
17 3 4 10 13:26 -13 13
L L L L D
18
Santos Laguna
17 3 3 11 20:38 -18 12
W L L L D
Playoffs