MEXICO LIGA MX
12.09.2026 23:05

Toluca vs Atlas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 44.2%
Odds 1.50
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 1.63
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
44.2%
1.50
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.75
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
1.63
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
2.10
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Toluca Win 44.2%
Draw 15.1%
Atlas Win 40.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toluca1.89
Atlas1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toluca Toluca
WWDLW
34 GF / 16 GA
Atlas Atlas
WLDWL
14 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
2.27
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
8
BTTS Yes
6
11
Over 2.5
5
6.54
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toluca Toluca 15 matches
Atlas Atlas 13 matches
Toluca Statistic Atlas
8 Wins 4
3 Draws 3
4 Losses 6
34 Goals For 14
16 Goals Against 17
2.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
8 BTTS Yes 6
13 Over 1.5 8
11 Over 2.5 5
7 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 5
6.54 Shots On Goal 3.86
18.62 Total Shots 11.14
4.92 Corners 4
60.3% Ball Possession 51.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atlas. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Toluca Analysis

Toluca approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 13 points after 6 outings. They have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, with a 12:4 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Jesús Gallardo (1 goals), Ivan López (1 goals), Jorge Díaz (1 goals), with creative support from Helinho (2 assists), Jesús Gallardo (1 assists), Ivan López (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Atlas Analysis

Atlas approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 12 points after 6 outings. With 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 9:8, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Duk (1 goals), Arturo González (1 goals), Aldo Rocha (1 goals), with creative support from Gustavo Ferrareis (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.9%)
Predicted formations: Toluca 4-2-3-1 / Atlas 4-2-3-1

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 12:2 10 16
W W W W D
2 7 4 2 1 12:6 6 14
W D W W D
3 6 4 1 1 12:4 8 13
W W D W L
4 6 4 1 1 10:7 3 13
W L W D W
5
Atlas Away
7 4 1 2 10:9 1 13
D L W W L
6 7 4 0 3 12:11 1 12
W W L L L
7 7 3 2 2 11:9 2 11
W L D D W
8 6 3 1 2 9:7 2 10
W L D W W
9 6 3 1 2 9:9 0 10
L W W D L
10 7 3 1 3 9:9 0 10
L D W W W
11 6 3 0 3 13:10 3 9
L L W W L
12 7 2 2 3 10:8 2 8
W D D L L
13 7 2 2 3 9:12 -3 8
D L D L L
14 7 1 4 2 7:9 -2 7
D D L D W
15 7 1 3 3 9:11 -2 6
D D W L L
16 7 1 3 3 8:13 -5 6
L W D L D
17 7 0 1 6 4:12 -8 1
L D L L L
18 7 0 0 7 3:21 -18 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)