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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
13.09.2026 09:00
Ajinomoto Stadium
Referee: Koichiro Fukushima, Japan
Tokyo Verdy
Match Timeline
JEF United Chiba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Matheus Vidotto
Tokyo Verdy
🟨
42'
Masaru Hidaka
JEF United Chiba
🟨
45+1'
Yuya Fukuda
Tokyo Verdy
🔄
46'
N. Sugiyama ↔ Erison
JEF United Chiba
🟨
53'
Daichi Ishikawa
JEF United Chiba
⚽
58'
Erison
JEF United Chiba
🔄
65'
H. Hirao ↔ K. Ichimi
Tokyo Verdy
🔄
74'
K. Saito ↔ S. Meshino
Tokyo Verdy
🔄
74'
Y. Fukuda ↔ I. Kumatoriya
Tokyo Verdy
🔄
75'
D. Hall ↔ T. Kawano
JEF United Chiba
🔄
75'
M. Hidaka ↔ K. Yonekura
JEF United Chiba
🟨
83'
Koji Toriumi
JEF United Chiba
🔄
84'
K. Yamura ↔ H. Goya
JEF United Chiba
🟨
87'
Erison
JEF United Chiba
🔄
87'
K. Suzuki ↔ Y. Matsuhashi
Tokyo Verdy
🔄
90+2'
Matheus Indio ↔ T. Taguchi
JEF United Chiba
⚽
90'
N. Hayashi · Assist: S. Mizoguchi
Tokyo Verdy

Tokyo Verdy vs JEF United Chiba Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 59.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
59.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
81.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Tokyo Verdy Win 23.7%
Draw 59.3%
JEF United Chiba Win 17%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tokyo Verdy1.2
JEF United Chiba1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy
WWDLW
2 GF / 8 GA
JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba
WLDWL
5 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
0.33
Average Goals Scored
0.83
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
2.5
2
BTTS Yes
2
1
Over 2.5
4
1.83
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 6 matches
JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba 6 matches
Tokyo Verdy Statistic JEF United Chiba
0 Wins 1
3 Draws 0
3 Losses 5
2 Goals For 5
8 Goals Against 15
0.33 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 2.5
2 BTTS Yes 2
4 Over 1.5 6
1 Over 2.5 4
1 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 3
1.83 Shots On Goal 3.5
8.5 Total Shots 10.17
3.17 Corners 2.5
39.5% Ball Possession 46%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Tokyo Verdy expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and JEF United Chiba in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward JEF United Chiba having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors JEF United Chiba. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Tokyo Verdy Analysis

Tokyo Verdy approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 2 points from 5 matches. The overall return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats with a 2:8 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Mizoguchi (1 goals), with creative support from I. Someno (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

JEF United Chiba Analysis

JEF United Chiba sit 20 with 0 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 defeats with a 3:15 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on K. Tanaka (1 goals), with creative support from T. Taguchi (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tokyo Verdy won 7 times, JEF United Chiba won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:22 from Tokyo Verdy's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (83%)
Predicted formations: Tokyo Verdy 3-4-2-1 / JEF United Chiba 4-4-2
H2H summary: Tokyo Verdy wins 7, draws 4, JEF United Chiba wins 4

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 25:6 19 23
W W W W L
2 10 7 2 1 21:8 13 23
W W W W W
3 10 7 0 3 22:17 5 21
L W W W L
4 9 6 2 1 22:10 12 20
W L D W W
5 10 6 1 3 21:16 5 19
W W D L L
6 9 6 1 2 14:9 5 19
L W W W W
7 10 4 4 2 21:16 5 16
W L D W W
8 10 4 4 2 13:9 4 16
D D W D W
9 10 5 0 5 17:21 -4 15
W L W L W
10 10 4 2 4 10:11 -1 14
D W W W L
11 9 4 1 4 12:12 0 13
L L W W W
12 10 4 0 6 12:16 -4 12
W W L L L
13 10 3 3 4 9:16 -7 12
L D D L D
14 10 2 3 5 12:14 -2 9
L L L L D
15 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D D W L
16 10 2 2 6 11:19 -8 8
L L W L L
17 9 2 1 6 11:13 -2 7
W L L D L
18 10 1 4 5 10:18 -8 7
D L L L L
19 10 1 3 6 8:19 -11 6
D D L D W
20 10 0 4 6 4:18 -14 4
L L L D D
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League