JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
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Ajinomoto Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 32.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
32.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.2%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tokyo Verdy Win 49%
Draw 11.8%
Gamba Osaka Win 39.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tokyo Verdy1.12
Gamba Osaka1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy
WWDLW
23 GF / 36 GA
Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka
WLDWL
35 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
1.59
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
10
BTTS Yes
15
10
Over 2.5
12
3
Shots on Goal
5.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 22 matches
Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 22 matches
Tokyo Verdy Statistic Gamba Osaka
7 Wins 7
5 Draws 10
10 Losses 5
23 Goals For 35
36 Goals Against 27
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 1.59
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
10 BTTS Yes 15
15 Over 1.5 18
10 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 5
3 Shots On Goal 5.42
10.05 Total Shots 12.84
4.32 Corners 4.42
41.8% Ball Possession 55.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Gamba Osaka's more proactive style and Tokyo Verdy's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Gamba Osaka. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Tokyo Verdy expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Gamba Osaka in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gamba Osaka having the stronger overall control.

Tokyo Verdy Analysis

Tokyo Verdy approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 28 points from 18 matches. The overall return of 10 wins, 0 draws, and 8 defeats with a 22:26 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on I. Someno (4 goals), T. Yoshida (4 goals), Y. Fukuda (3 goals), with creative support from K. Morita (3 assists), I. Someno (2 assists), Y. Arai (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gamba Osaka Analysis

Gamba Osaka approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 28 points from 18 matches. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 0 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 31:25 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on D. Hummet (9 goals), H. Minamino (6 goals), R. Meshino (2 goals), with creative support from Ryo Hatsuse (3 assists), I. Jebali (2 assists), Ryoya Yamashita (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Tokyo Verdy won 0 times, Gamba Osaka won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:10 from Tokyo Verdy's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.2%)
Predicted formations: Tokyo Verdy 3-4-2-1 / Gamba Osaka 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Tokyo Verdy wins 0, draws 5, Gamba Osaka wins 2
Last matches: Tokyo Verdy
30.05.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Gamba Osaka
1
1
D
24.05.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Yokohama F. Marinos
0
6
L
16.05.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Mito Hollyhock
1
0
W
13.05.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Machida Zelvia
0
0
D
10.05.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
FC Tokyo
1
2
L
06.05.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale
0
1
L
03.05.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Kashiwa Reysol
1
0
W
29.04.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Kashima
2
1
W
18.04.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
JEF United Chiba
1
0
W
12.04.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Urawa
1
1
D
04.04.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
JEF United Chiba
2
3
L
22.03.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
FC Tokyo
0
0
D
18.03.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale
0
2
L
14.03.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Urawa
1
0
W
07.03.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Kashima
0
2
L
28.02.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Yokohama F. Marinos
2
3
L
21.02.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
15.02.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Kashiwa Reysol
2
1
W
08.02.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Mito Hollyhock
3
1
W
23.01.26
Fri
Tokyo Verdy
Roasso Kumamoto
0
2
L
Last matches: Gamba Osaka
30.05.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Tokyo Verdy
1
1
D
24.05.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
2
1
W
10.05.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
1
L
06.05.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
02.05.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Vissel Kobe
5
0
W
29.04.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
1
1
D
22.04.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
1
2
L
19.04.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
2
2
D
11.04.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
0
1
L
04.04.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
2
0
W
21.03.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
18.03.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Vissel Kobe
2
2
D
14.03.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
2
L
08.03.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
3
2
W
28.02.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
2
2
D
22.02.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
2
1
W
15.02.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
0
0
D
07.02.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
0
0
D
25.01.26
Fri
Gamba Osaka
Consadole Sapporo
4
1
W
H2H: Tokyo Verdy vs Gamba Osaka
30.05.26
H2H
Gamba Osaka
Tokyo Verdy
1
1
D
06.12.25
H2H
Gamba Osaka
Tokyo Verdy
4
1
L
02.03.25
H2H
Tokyo Verdy
Gamba Osaka
0
1
L
28.09.24
H2H
Gamba Osaka
Tokyo Verdy
1
1
D
15.05.24
H2H
Tokyo Verdy
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
27.07.13
H2H
Tokyo Verdy
Gamba Osaka
3
3
D
07.04.13
H2H
Gamba Osaka
Tokyo Verdy
0
0
D
Last matches: Tokyo Verdy
24.05.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Yokohama F. Marinos
0
6
L
03.05.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Kashiwa Reysol
1
0
W
29.04.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Kashima
2
1
W
18.04.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
JEF United Chiba
1
0
W
22.03.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
FC Tokyo
0
0
D
18.03.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale
0
2
L
14.03.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Urawa
1
0
W
21.02.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
08.02.26
J1
Tokyo Verdy
Mito Hollyhock
3
1
W
23.01.26
Fri
Tokyo Verdy
Roasso Kumamoto
0
2
L
20.01.26
Fri
Tokyo Verdy
Avispa Fukuoka
3
4
L
16.01.26
Fri
Tokyo Verdy
Oita Trinita
0
4
L
H2H at home: Tokyo Verdy
02.03.25
H2H
Tokyo Verdy
Gamba Osaka
0
1
L
15.05.24
H2H
Tokyo Verdy
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
27.07.13
H2H
Tokyo Verdy
Gamba Osaka
3
3
D
Last matches: Gamba Osaka
24.05.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
2
1
W
06.05.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
29.04.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
1
1
D
21.03.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
18.03.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Vissel Kobe
2
2
D
14.03.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
2
L
22.02.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
2
1
W
07.02.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
0
0
D
H2H away: Gamba Osaka
02.03.25
H2H
Tokyo Verdy
Gamba Osaka
0
1
W
15.05.24
H2H
Tokyo Verdy
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
27.07.13
H2H
Tokyo Verdy
Gamba Osaka
3
3
D

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 0 3 31:11 20 45
W W W W W
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
W L W L W
2 18 13 0 5 32:18 14 37
L W W L W
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
W W W L W
3 18 13 0 5 28:22 6 37
W L W W W
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
L L W W W
4 18 10 0 8 26:28 -2 28
W W L W L
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
W W W L L
5 18 10 0 8 22:26 -4 28
L W L L L
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
W L L W L
6 18 7 0 11 25:22 3 25
L L W W W
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
L W W L W
7 18 6 0 12 28:31 -3 20
W L L L L
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
L L W W W
8 18 7 0 11 22:24 -2 20
W W W L L
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
W L L L L
9 18 6 0 12 23:39 -16 18
L L L L W
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
L W L W L
10 18 3 0 15 18:34 -16 12
L L L W L
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
L L W L W