Tigre vs Rosario Central Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 60.4%
Odds 1.40
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.5%
Odds 1.46
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
60.4%
1.40
BTTS No
55%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.5%
1.46
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.36
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 0-1
-
6.50
Probability Distribution
Tigre Win 39.6%
Draw 18.2%
Rosario Central Win 42.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tigre0.97
Rosario Central1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tigre Tigre
WWDLW
27 GF / 21 GA
Rosario Central Rosario Central
WLDWL
45 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.22
0.81
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
12
BTTS Yes
17
7
Over 2.5
17
3.79
Shots on Goal
4.74

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tigre Tigre 26 matches
Rosario Central Rosario Central 37 matches
Tigre Statistic Rosario Central
8 Wins 18
11 Draws 9
7 Losses 10
27 Goals For 45
21 Goals Against 32
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
0.81 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
12 BTTS Yes 17
15 Over 1.5 24
7 Over 2.5 17
4 Over 3.5 4
9 Clean Sheets 14
10 Failed To Score 11
3.79 Shots On Goal 4.74
12.92 Total Shots 13.86
3.92 Corners 5.43
44.7% Ball Possession 56.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Tigre expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Rosario Central in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rosario Central having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Rosario Central. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Tigre Analysis

Tigre sit 10 with 20 points after 16 league matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 18:15 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by I. Russo (2 goals), S. López (1 goals), Gonzalo Martínez (1 goals), with creative support from I. Russo (1 assists), V. Moreno (1 assists), J. Saralegui (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Rosario Central Analysis

Rosario Central approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 28 points after 16 outings. With 8 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 20:16, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Ángel Di María (3 goals), Enzo Copetti (3 goals), Julián Fernández (2 goals), with creative support from Ángel Di María (2 assists), Franco Ibarra (2 assists), Carlos Quintana (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Tigre won 3 times, Rosario Central won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:9 from Tigre's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.44 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.8%)
Predicted formations: Tigre 4-4-2 / Rosario Central 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Tigre wins 3, draws 4, Rosario Central wins 2

Standings

Clausura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 5 2 1 12:7 5 17
D W D L W
2 8 5 0 3 15:12 3 15
W L W W W
3 8 5 0 3 12:12 0 15
W W L L W
4 9 4 2 3 13:13 0 14
W L W D L
5 9 4 1 4 12:10 2 13
W W W D W
6 9 3 4 2 7:5 2 13
L W D D W
7 8 3 3 2 8:5 3 12
D D L W W
8
Tigre Home
8 3 3 2 7:5 2 12
L D W D W
9 8 3 3 2 9:8 1 12
D L D W W
10 8 3 2 3 4:5 -1 11
D D L L L
11 8 2 4 2 6:6 0 10
D D D L W
12 8 2 1 5 8:13 -5 7
L L L W L
13 8 1 3 4 3:9 -6 6
L D D L L
14 9 1 2 6 11:16 -5 5
L W L L D
15 8 1 2 5 7:13 -6 5
L L D L L
Knockout Phase