FRANCE LIGUE 3
26.09.2026 18:45
Stadium Plaine

Thionville Lusitanos vs La Roche VF Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59.8%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Thionville Lusitanos Win 29.1%
Draw 11%
La Roche VF Win 59.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Thionville Lusitanos1.84
La Roche VF1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Thionville Lusitanos Thionville Lusitanos
WWDLW
24 GF / 13 GA
La Roche VF La Roche VF
WLDWL
14 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
2.4
Average Goals Scored
1.56
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1
5
BTTS Yes
6
7
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Thionville Lusitanos Thionville Lusitanos 10 matches
La Roche VF La Roche VF 9 matches
Thionville Lusitanos Statistic La Roche VF
5 Wins 5
4 Draws 4
1 Losses 0
24 Goals For 14
13 Goals Against 9
2.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1
5 BTTS Yes 6
10 Over 1.5 6
7 Over 2.5 3
6 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors La Roche VF. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward La Roche VF having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Thionville Lusitanos Analysis

Thionville Lusitanos arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 11 points after 6 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, while the 12:10 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

La Roche VF Analysis

Placed 3 with 12 points from 6 outings, La Roche VF continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses with goals at 7:4 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89%)

Standings

National
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 2 0 13:2 11 17
W W D W W
2 7 4 3 0 10:6 4 15
W D D W D
3 7 3 3 1 9:6 3 12
W W D D W
4 7 3 3 1 13:11 2 12
D L D D W
5 7 4 0 3 12:7 5 12
L W W L W
6 7 3 2 2 8:2 6 11
W D W W L
7 7 2 5 0 8:3 5 11
D D W W D
8 7 3 1 3 10:11 -1 10
D W L L W
9 7 3 1 3 9:7 2 10
W L D L W
10 7 3 1 3 6:9 -3 10
D W L W L
11 7 2 3 2 5:7 -2 9
D L D D W
12 7 2 3 2 6:8 -2 9
D W D W L
13 7 2 3 2 11:8 3 9
D W W L L
14 7 2 1 4 6:10 -4 7
L L D L W
15 7 1 2 4 7:12 -5 5
L L D D L
16 7 1 1 5 3:8 -5 4
L L D W L
17 7 1 1 5 4:12 -8 4
D L L L L
18 7 1 1 5 6:17 -11 4
L D L L L
Promotion - Ligue 2
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion)
Relegation