ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Bellavista
Referee: Yerson Zambrano, Ecuador
Tecnico Universitario
Match Timeline
Mushuc Runa SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
R. Ibarra · Assist: K. Peralta
Mushuc Runa SC
🟥
22'
Santiago Razzeto
Tecnico Universitario
VAR
22'
Santiago Razzeto
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
26'
B. Delgado ↔ A. Morales
Tecnico Universitario
🟨
30'
Kevin Peralta
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
33'
Anthony Castilo
Tecnico Universitario
45'
R. Ibarra
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
46'
L. Estupinan ↔ Johan Bocanegra
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
46'
J. Majao ↔ W. Caicedo
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
46'
K. Peralta ↔ N. Bazan
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
52'
Arnaldo Zambrano
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
53'
A. Zambrano ↔ L. Lemos
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
60'
Edwin Mesa
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
71'
J. Cusme ↔ F. Carabali
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
71'
M. Perea ↔ B. Corozo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
71'
T. Minda ↔ R. Tufino
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
72'
E. E. Mesa Mercado ↔ C. Arteaga
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
74'
H. Guardia ↔ J. Caicedo
Tecnico Universitario
85'
C. Angulo · Assist: R. Ibarra
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
90+2'
Julian Anaya
Tecnico Universitario
🟨
90'
Nicolás Dávila
Mushuc Runa SC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 42.1%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
42.1%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tecnico Universitario Win 41.9%
Draw 16.1%
Mushuc Runa SC Win 42.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tecnico Universitario1.09
Mushuc Runa SC1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario
WWDLW
20 GF / 30 GA
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
WLDWL
29 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
0.83
Average Goals Scored
1.26
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
8
BTTS Yes
15
9
Over 2.5
13
3.83
Shots on Goal
3.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 24 matches
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC 23 matches
Tecnico Universitario Statistic Mushuc Runa SC
8 Wins 7
2 Draws 7
14 Losses 9
20 Goals For 29
30 Goals Against 34
0.83 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
8 BTTS Yes 15
14 Over 1.5 17
9 Over 2.5 13
2 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 6
11 Failed To Score 5
3.83 Shots On Goal 3.96
12 Total Shots 12.96
4.91 Corners 4.91
42.3% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Mushuc Runa SC. Tecnico Universitario have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Tecnico Universitario expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Mushuc Runa SC in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mushuc Runa SC having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Tecnico Universitario Analysis

Tecnico Universitario approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 26 points from 23 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 20:29, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Mateo Castano (3 goals), Julian Anaya (3 goals), Johan Bocanegra (2 goals), with creative support from Mateo Castano (2 assists), Johan Bocanegra (2 assists), Luis Estupiñan (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mushuc Runa SC Analysis

Mushuc Runa SC sit 10 with 28 points after 23 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses, while the 29:34 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Ronie Carrillo (6 goals), Kevin Velasco (2 goals), Cristopher Angulo (2 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Dávila (3 assists), Kevin Velasco (2 assists), Jackson González (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tecnico Universitario won 4 times, Mushuc Runa SC won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:18 from Tecnico Universitario's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.9%)
Predicted formations: Tecnico Universitario 4-2-3-1 / Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2
H2H summary: Tecnico Universitario wins 4, draws 5, Mushuc Runa SC wins 6

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 2 3 66:28 38 68
D W W W W
2 27 14 5 8 31:26 5 47
W W L W W
3 27 13 6 8 35:27 8 45
W L D W W
4 27 12 8 7 47:25 22 44
D W D L W
5 27 12 5 10 27:22 5 41
L W W L W
6 27 10 9 8 28:22 6 39
L W D L D
7 27 10 7 10 29:30 -1 37
L W D W W
8 27 9 9 9 33:34 -1 36
W D D W W
9 27 9 9 9 27:30 -3 36
W W D D L
10 27 9 8 10 29:30 -1 35
L L W L D
11 27 9 8 10 23:32 -9 32
W L W D L
12 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
13 27 8 6 13 31:41 -10 30
L L W D L
14 27 9 2 16 26:38 -12 29
W L L L L
15 27 6 6 15 17:29 -12 24
L L L D L
16 27 5 5 17 14:37 -23 20
W L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs