ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Bellavista
Referee: Gorky Stalin Araujo Zambrano, Ecuador
Tecnico Universitario
Match Timeline
Leones del Norte
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
3'
Rafael Chila
Tecnico Universitario
🟨
10'
Brian Kreiman
Leones del Norte
🟨
11'
Bagner Delgado
Tecnico Universitario
VAR
32'
Jose Caicedo
Tecnico Universitario
35'
M. Castano
Tecnico Universitario
🟨
39'
Jonathan Majao
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
46'
B. Kreiman ↔ D. Pazmino
Leones del Norte
🔄
46'
T. Coppo ↔ R. Borja
Leones del Norte
🔄
46'
E. Griffa ↔ Caicedo Nestor
Leones del Norte
🔄
46'
S. Portocarrero ↔ M. De La Cruz
Leones del Norte
🔄
58'
C. Solano ↔ E. Pepinos
Leones del Norte
🔄
59'
L. Fernandez ↔ J. Montes
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
59'
B. Delgado ↔ C. Arteaga
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
69'
J. Majao ↔ L. B. Torres Nazareno
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
78'
R. Chilla ↔ A. Copete
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
78'
Johan Bocanegra ↔ L. Estupinan
Tecnico Universitario
88'
Caicedo Nestor · Assist: R. Arroyo
Leones del Norte
90'
L. Nazareno
Tecnico Universitario

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 73.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
73.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
74.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tecnico Universitario Win 71.5%
Draw 0%
Leones del Norte Win 28.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tecnico Universitario0.99
Leones del Norte0.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario
WWDLW
14 GF / 16 GA
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WLDWL
13 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
0.93
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
6
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
5
4.36
Shots on Goal
2.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 15 matches
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 14 matches
Tecnico Universitario Statistic Leones del Norte
4 Wins 4
2 Draws 4
9 Losses 6
14 Goals For 13
16 Goals Against 15
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 0.93
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
6 BTTS Yes 5
9 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 6
4.36 Shots On Goal 2.93
13.07 Total Shots 9.29
5.14 Corners 3.64
44.5% Ball Possession 42.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Leones del Norte. Tecnico Universitario have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Tecnico Universitario Analysis

With 14 points from 14 games and a place of 14, Tecnico Universitario still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 14:15 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Julian Anaya (3 goals), Cesar Castano (2 goals), Johan Bocanegra (2 goals), with creative support from Yorlin Arce (3 assists), Cesar Castano (2 assists), Johan Bocanegra (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Leones del Norte Analysis

Leones del Norte are currently 11 in the standings with 16 points from 14 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, while the 13:15 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Anangono (4 goals), E. Griffa (3 goals), E. Pepinos (2 goals), with creative support from E. Pepinos (1 assists), D. Pazmino (1 assists), Segundo Portocarrero (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Tecnico Universitario won 1 times, Leones del Norte won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Tecnico Universitario's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Tecnico Universitario 3-4-3 / Leones del Norte 3-4-3
H2H summary: Tecnico Universitario wins 1, draws 0, Leones del Norte wins 0

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 2 3 66:28 38 68
D W W W W
2 27 14 5 8 31:26 5 47
W W L W W
3 27 13 6 8 35:27 8 45
W L D W W
4 27 12 8 7 47:25 22 44
D W D L W
5 27 12 5 10 27:22 5 41
L W W L W
6 27 10 9 8 28:22 6 39
L W D L D
7 27 10 7 10 29:30 -1 37
L W D W W
8 27 9 9 9 33:34 -1 36
W D D W W
9 27 9 9 9 27:30 -3 36
W W D D L
10 27 9 8 10 29:30 -1 35
L L W L D
11 27 9 8 10 23:32 -9 32
W L W D L
12 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
13 27 8 6 13 31:41 -10 30
L L W D L
14 27 9 2 16 26:38 -12 29
W L L L L
15 27 6 6 15 17:29 -12 24
L L L D L
16 27 5 5 17 14:37 -23 20
W L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs