ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Bellavista
Referee: G. Araujo
Tecnico Universitario
Match Timeline
Leones del Norte
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
3'
Rafael Chila
Tecnico Universitario
🟨
10'
Brian Kreiman
Leones del Norte
🟨
11'
Bagner Delgado
Tecnico Universitario
VAR
32'
Jose Caicedo
Tecnico Universitario
35'
M. Castano
Tecnico Universitario
🟨
39'
Jonathan Majao
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
46'
B. Kreiman ↔ D. Pazmino
Leones del Norte
🔄
46'
T. Coppo ↔ R. Borja
Leones del Norte
🔄
46'
E. Griffa ↔ Caicedo Nestor
Leones del Norte
🔄
46'
S. Portocarrero ↔ M. De La Cruz
Leones del Norte
🔄
58'
C. Solano ↔ E. Pepinos
Leones del Norte
🔄
59'
L. Fernandez ↔ J. Montes
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
59'
B. Delgado ↔ C. Arteaga
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
69'
J. Majao ↔ L. B. Torres Nazareno
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
78'
R. Chilla ↔ A. Copete
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
78'
Johan Bocanegra ↔ L. Estupinan
Tecnico Universitario
88'
Caicedo Nestor · Assist: R. Arroyo
Leones del Norte
90'
L. Nazareno
Tecnico Universitario

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 73.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
73.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
74.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tecnico Universitario Win 71.5%
Draw 0%
Leones del Norte Win 28.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tecnico Universitario0.99
Leones del Norte0.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario
WWDLW
14 GF / 16 GA
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WLDWL
13 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
0.93
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
6
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
5
4.36
Shots on Goal
2.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 15 matches
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 14 matches
Tecnico Universitario Statistic Leones del Norte
4 Wins 4
2 Draws 4
9 Losses 6
14 Goals For 13
16 Goals Against 15
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 0.93
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
6 BTTS Yes 5
9 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 6
4.36 Shots On Goal 2.93
13.07 Total Shots 9.29
5.14 Corners 3.64
44.5% Ball Possession 42.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Leones del Norte. Tecnico Universitario have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Tecnico Universitario Analysis

With 14 points from 14 games and a place of 14, Tecnico Universitario still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 14:15 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Julian Anaya (3 goals), Cesar Castano (2 goals), Johan Bocanegra (2 goals), with creative support from Yorlin Arce (3 assists), Cesar Castano (2 assists), Johan Bocanegra (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Leones del Norte Analysis

Leones del Norte are currently 11 in the standings with 16 points from 14 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, while the 13:15 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Anangono (4 goals), E. Griffa (3 goals), E. Pepinos (2 goals), with creative support from E. Pepinos (1 assists), D. Pazmino (1 assists), Segundo Portocarrero (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Tecnico Universitario won 1 times, Leones del Norte won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Tecnico Universitario's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Tecnico Universitario 3-4-3 / Leones del Norte 3-4-3
H2H summary: Tecnico Universitario wins 1, draws 0, Leones del Norte wins 0
Stats
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
Shots on Goal
10
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
3
3 Corner Kicks 1
11 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 0
43% Ball Possession 57%
21 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Goal 2
9 Shots off Goal 1
2 Blocked Shots 3
12 Shots insidebox 5
9 Shots outsidebox 1
1 Goalkeeper Saves 10
312 Total passes 401
249 Passes accurate 324
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Tecnico Universitario
Formation
Leones del Norte
A. Morales
A. Morales
E. E. Mesa Mercado
E. E. Mesa Mercado
R. Chilla
R. Chilla
J. Anaya
J. Anaya
Y. Arce
Y. Arce
Johan Bocanegra
Johan Bocanegra
M. Castano
M. Castano
J. Majao
J. Majao
J. Caicedo
J. Caicedo
L. Fernandez
L. Fernandez
B. Delgado
B. Delgado
L. Nazareno
L. Nazareno
J. Moran
J. Moran
N. Monserrat
N. Monserrat
B. Kreiman
B. Kreiman
R. Arroyo
🎯
R. Arroyo
T. Coppo
T. Coppo
C. Velez
C. Velez
S. Portocarrero
S. Portocarrero
C. Solano
C. Solano
J. Anangono
J. Anangono
E. Griffa
E. Griffa
Tecnico Universitario 4-4-2
Starting XI
12
A. Morales
G
23
E. E. Mesa Mercado
D
53
R. Chilla
↓ 78' 🟨 3'
D
13
J. Anaya
D
85
Y. Arce
D
10
Johan Bocanegra
↓ 78'
M
70
M. Castano
⚽ 35'
M
33
J. Majao
↓ 69' 🟨 39'
M
16
J. Caicedo
M
9
L. Fernandez
↓ 59'
F
25
B. Delgado
↓ 59' 🟨 11'
F
Substitutes
1
S. Razzeto
30
K. Arce
D
67
M. A. Carrasco Bonilla
M
17
J. Montes
↑ 59'
F
6
L. B. Torres Nazareno
↑ 69'
D
11
C. Arteaga
↑ 59'
F
27
A. Copete
↑ 78'
M
15
F. Castillo
7
L. Estupinan
↑ 78'
F
19
A. Castillo
F
77
C. Garcia
M
21
A. Velastegui
M
Leones del Norte 3-4-3
Starting XI
45
L. Nazareno
⚽ 90'
G
2
J. Moran
23
N. Monserrat
D
25
B. Kreiman
↓ 46' 🟨 10'
D
4
R. Arroyo
🎯 88'
M
5
T. Coppo
↓ 46'
M
8
C. Velez
M
34
S. Portocarrero
↓ 46'
M
99
C. Solano
↓ 58'
F
40
J. Anangono
6
E. Griffa
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
24
J. L. Angulo
G
70
D. Pazmino
↑ 46'
M
10
A. Mansilla
F
11
M. Caramuto
M
55
R. Borja
↑ 46'
M
3
F. Vargas
D
27
Caicedo Nestor
⚽ 88' ↑ 46'
F
44
K. Mina
16
M. De La Cruz
↑ 46'
D
32
A. Aguas
19
E. Pepinos
↑ 58'
M
13
J. Cabeza
M
Last matches: Tecnico Universitario
07.07.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Orense SC
2
1
W
02.06.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
15.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
LDU de Quito
1
2
L
09.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Delfin SC
4
0
W
02.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Deportivo Cuenca
1
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
22.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
0
1
L
18.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Mushuc Runa SC
0
1
L
12.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Manta FC
2
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
19.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Aucas
1
0
W
13.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Libertad
2
1
W
08.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Macara
1
1
D
28.02.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Orense SC
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
08.02.26
Fri
Tecnico Universitario
Aucas
0
1
L
Last matches: Leones del Norte
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
14.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
0
3
L
28.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
0
0
D
H2H: Tecnico Universitario vs Leones del Norte
24.05.26
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Leones del Norte
2
1
W
Last matches: Tecnico Universitario
02.06.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
09.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Delfin SC
4
0
W
22.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
0
1
L
12.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
13.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Libertad
2
1
W
28.02.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Orense SC
1
1
D
H2H at home: Tecnico Universitario
24.05.26
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Leones del Norte
2
1
W
Last matches: Leones del Norte
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
14.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
0
3
L
22.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
0
0
D
H2H away: Leones del Norte
24.05.26
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Leones del Norte
2
1
L

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 13 1 3 36:18 18 40
W W L W W
2 17 8 5 4 20:13 7 29
W L W W L
3 17 8 5 4 20:16 4 29
W D W L W
4 17 8 3 6 19:14 5 27
L W D W W
5 17 8 3 6 18:19 -1 27
L W D W W
6 17 7 5 5 28:17 11 26
L L W D L
7 17 7 2 8 19:17 2 23
W W W L W
8 17 6 5 6 16:18 -2 23
W D L L W
9 17 6 4 7 22:24 -2 22
L L L W W
10 17 5 6 6 22:23 -1 21
W D D L L
11 17 5 5 7 18:19 -1 20
W D L W L
12 17 6 5 6 14:17 -3 20
D W W D D
13 17 5 4 8 14:20 -6 19
L L D L L
14 17 4 5 8 9:16 -7 17
D L L D L
15 17 4 5 8 17:25 -8 17
L L W L D
16 17 3 3 11 7:23 -16 12
L W L D L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs