ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Bellavista
Referee: G. Guerrero
Tecnico Universitario
Match Timeline
Emelec
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
51'
Ariel Mina
Emelec
🔄
58'
M. Chaves ↔ B. Delgado
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
65'
A. Castillo ↔ L. Fernandez
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
72'
A. Mina ↔ J. Neris
Emelec
🔄
72'
L. Klimowicz ↔ L. Fragozo
Emelec
🟨
77'
Víctor Griffith
Emelec
🔄
84'
A. Mina ↔ F. Pizzini
Emelec
🟨
90+7'
Luis Estupiñan
Tecnico Universitario
🟨
90+3'
Johan Bocanegra
Tecnico Universitario
🟨
90+2'
Mateo Castano
Tecnico Universitario
VAR
90'
Luis Fragozo
Emelec
🔄
90+6'
M. Perea ↔ J. Caicedo
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
90+6'
Johan Bocanegra ↔ W. Caicedo
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
90+7'
I. Guerrico ↔ E. Segura
Emelec
90'
J. Cevallos
Emelec

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 52%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 66.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
52%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
66.6%
-
Probability Distribution
Tecnico Universitario Win 68.6%
Draw 0%
Emelec Win 31.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tecnico Universitario1.06
Emelec0.87
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario
WWDLW
8 GF / 10 GA
Emelec Emelec
WLDWL
7 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
0.8
Average Goals Scored
0.78
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
4
BTTS Yes
4
2
Over 2.5
2
3.56
Shots on Goal
3.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 10 matches
Emelec Emelec 9 matches
Tecnico Universitario Statistic Emelec
3 Wins 2
2 Draws 2
5 Losses 5
8 Goals For 7
10 Goals Against 13
0.8 Avg Goals Scored 0.78
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
4 BTTS Yes 4
6 Over 1.5 8
2 Over 2.5 2
0 Over 3.5 1
2 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 4
3.56 Shots On Goal 3.11
12.11 Total Shots 10.67
4.44 Corners 4.22
42.2% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Emelec. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Tecnico Universitario expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Emelec in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Emelec having the stronger overall control. Tecnico Universitario arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 11 with 11 points compared to Emelec in 15 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Tecnico Universitario Analysis

With 11 points from 9 games and a place of 11, Tecnico Universitario still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 8:8, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Cesar Castano (2 goals), Julian Anaya (2 goals), M. Cagua (2 goals), with creative support from Cesar Castano (1 assists), Johan Bocanegra (1 assists), Kener Arce (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Emelec Analysis

Emelec approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 5 points from 9 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 6:10 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Luca Klimowicz (2 goals), R. Caicedo (2 goals), I. Guerrico (1 goals), with creative support from I. Guerrico (1 assists), A. Mina (1 assists), Aníbal Leguizamón (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tecnico Universitario won 3 times, Emelec won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:14 from Tecnico Universitario's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Tecnico Universitario 5-4-1 / Emelec 4-4-2
H2H summary: Tecnico Universitario wins 3, draws 6, Emelec wins 6
Stats
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario
Emelec Emelec
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
12
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
2
8 Corner Kicks 1
11 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 0
53% Ball Possession 47%
23 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Goal 2
12 Shots off Goal 4
4 Blocked Shots 2
7 Shots insidebox 6
16 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 7
370 Total passes 339
301 Passes accurate 259
0.96 expected_goals 1.36
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Tecnico Universitario
Formation
Emelec
S. Razzeto
S. Razzeto
A. Castillo
A. Castillo
M. Cagua
M. Cagua
Y. Arce
Y. Arce
A. Copete
A. Copete
M. Perea
M. Perea
Johan Bocanegra
Johan Bocanegra
J. Majao
J. Majao
M. Castano
M. Castano
M. Chaves
M. Chaves
L. Estupinan
L. Estupinan
P. Ortiz
P. Ortiz
R. Caicedo
R. Caicedo
S. Quintero
S. Quintero
A. Leguizamon
A. Leguizamon
S. Valencia
S. Valencia
I. Guerrico
I. Guerrico
A. Mina
A. Mina
V. Griffith
V. Griffith
J. Cevallos
J. Cevallos
A. Mina
A. Mina
L. Klimowicz
L. Klimowicz
Tecnico Universitario 5-4-1
Starting XI
1
S. Razzeto
19
A. Castillo
↓ 65'
D
5
M. Cagua
D
85
Y. Arce
D
27
A. Copete
D
28
M. Perea
↓ 90+6'
D
10
Johan Bocanegra
↓ 90+6' 🟨 90+3'
M
33
J. Majao
M
70
M. Castano
🟨 90+2'
M
8
M. Chaves
↓ 58'
M
7
L. Estupinan
🟨 90+7'
F
Substitutes
12
A. Morales
G
30
K. Arce
D
67
M. A. Carrasco Bonilla
M
25
B. Delgado
↑ 58'
F
6
L. B. Torres Nazareno
D
9
L. Fernandez
↑ 65'
F
23
E. E. Mesa Mercado
D
16
J. Caicedo
↑ 90+6'
M
11
C. Arteaga
F
15
F. Castillo
53
R. Chilla
M
90
W. Caicedo
↑ 90+6'
F
Emelec 5-4-1
Starting XI
12
P. Ortiz
G
14
R. Caicedo
D
16
S. Quintero
D
2
A. Leguizamon
D
51
S. Valencia
3
I. Guerrico
↓ 90+7'
D
5
A. Mina
↓ 72'
M
6
V. Griffith
🟨 77'
M
21
J. Cevallos
⚽ 90'
M
30
A. Mina
↓ 84' 🟨 51'
M
7
L. Klimowicz
↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
1
M. Valero
G
9
J. Neris
↑ 72'
F
80
O. Herrera
D
15
L. Fragozo
↑ 72'
F
10
F. Pizzini
↑ 84'
F
19
J. Ruiz
F
4
E. Segura
↑ 90+7'
D
20
J. Gonzaga
F
24
A. Viteri
18
M. Carabali
Last matches: Tecnico Universitario
07.07.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Orense SC
2
1
W
02.06.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Leones del Norte
2
1
W
15.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
LDU de Quito
1
2
L
09.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Delfin SC
4
0
W
02.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Deportivo Cuenca
1
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
18.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Mushuc Runa SC
0
1
L
12.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Manta FC
2
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
19.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Aucas
1
0
W
13.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Libertad
2
1
W
08.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Macara
1
1
D
28.02.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Orense SC
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
08.02.26
Fri
Tecnico Universitario
Aucas
0
1
L
Last matches: Emelec
05.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
31.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Macara
2
0
W
17.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Manta FC
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Libertad
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Leones del Norte
0
2
L
25.04.26
Lig
Emelec
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
1
3
L
12.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
09.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
05.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Deportivo Cuenca
0
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
0
2
L
20.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Independiente del Valle
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Orense SC
2
1
W
07.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
01.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
H2H: Tecnico Universitario vs Emelec
22.04.26
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
0
1
L
17.08.25
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
0
1
L
27.04.25
H2H
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
0
1
W
22.09.24
H2H
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
3
1
L
09.09.24
H2H
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
0
0
D
07.04.24
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
1
1
D
18.08.23
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
0
0
D
20.03.23
H2H
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
L
22.10.22
H2H
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
3
1
L
28.05.22
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
1
1
D
04.10.21
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
1
0
W
18.04.21
H2H
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
2
0
L
30.01.21
H2H
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
0
0
D
15.11.20
H2H
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
1
1
D
30.08.20
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
2
0
W
Last matches: Tecnico Universitario
02.06.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Leones del Norte
2
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Delfin SC
4
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
13.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Libertad
2
1
W
28.02.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Orense SC
1
1
D
H2H at home: Tecnico Universitario
22.04.26
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
0
1
L
17.08.25
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
0
1
L
07.04.24
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
1
1
D
18.08.23
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
0
0
D
28.05.22
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
1
1
D
04.10.21
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
1
0
W
30.08.20
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
2
0
W
Last matches: Emelec
05.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
17.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Manta FC
0
0
D
03.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Leones del Norte
0
2
L
12.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
09.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
22.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
0
2
L
07.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
H2H away: Emelec
22.04.26
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
0
1
W
17.08.25
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
0
1
W
07.04.24
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
1
1
D
18.08.23
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
0
0
D
28.05.22
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
1
1
D
04.10.21
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
1
0
L
30.08.20
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
2
0
L

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 13 1 3 36:18 18 40
W W L W W
2 17 8 5 4 20:13 7 29
W L W W L
3 17 8 5 4 20:16 4 29
W D W L W
4 17 8 3 6 19:14 5 27
L W D W W
5 17 8 3 6 18:19 -1 27
L W D W W
6 17 7 5 5 28:17 11 26
L L W D L
7 17 7 2 8 19:17 2 23
W W W L W
8 17 6 5 6 16:18 -2 23
W D L L W
9 17 6 4 7 22:24 -2 22
L L L W W
10 17 5 6 6 22:23 -1 21
W D D L L
11 17 5 5 7 18:19 -1 20
W D L W L
12 17 6 5 6 14:17 -3 20
D W W D D
13 17 5 4 8 14:20 -6 19
L L D L L
14 17 4 5 8 9:16 -7 17
D L L D L
15 17 4 5 8 17:25 -8 17
L L W L D
16 17 3 3 11 7:23 -16 12
L W L D L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs