ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Bellavista
Referee: J. C. Andrade Arreaga
Tecnico Universitario
Match Timeline
Deportivo Cuenca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
17'
L. Mancinelli
Deportivo Cuenca
28'
D. Armas · Assist: B. Delgado
Tecnico Universitario
41'
Johan Bocanegra
Tecnico Universitario
48'
J. Majao
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
55'
C. Benalcazar ↔ G. Rivero
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
58'
A. Cela ↔ K. Arce
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
68'
A. Lopez ↔ J. Chacon
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
68'
M. Diaz ↔ R. Ibarra
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
69'
Jonathan Majao
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
72'
Y. Arce ↔ R. Chilla
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
72'
M. Castano ↔ A. Castillo
Tecnico Universitario
🟨
76'
Mateo Maccari
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
80'
Y. H. Erique Villigua ↔ J. Mejia
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
80'
D. Gonzalez ↔ J. Ordonez
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
83'
Jeremy Mejia
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
90+2'
Ayrton Morales
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
90'
J. Majao ↔ S. Mena
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
90'
Johan Bocanegra ↔ C. Garcia
Tecnico Universitario

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.6%
Odds 2.28
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 2.58
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.6%
2.28
BTTS No
50.8%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
2.58
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.30
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00
Correct Score 3-0
-
21.00
Probability Distribution
Tecnico Universitario Win 56.6%
Draw 18.6%
Deportivo Cuenca Win 24.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tecnico Universitario0.99
Deportivo Cuenca1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario
WWDLW
23 GF / 38 GA
Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca
WLDWL
26 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
0.85
Average Goals Scored
0.93
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
10
BTTS Yes
13
12
Over 2.5
10
3.96
Shots on Goal
3.73

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 27 matches
Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 28 matches
Tecnico Universitario Statistic Deportivo Cuenca
8 Wins 11
2 Draws 5
17 Losses 12
23 Goals For 26
38 Goals Against 34
0.85 Avg Goals Scored 0.93
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
10 BTTS Yes 13
17 Over 1.5 18
12 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 7
12 Failed To Score 9
3.96 Shots On Goal 3.73
12.42 Total Shots 12.5
4.92 Corners 4.42
42.5% Ball Possession 50.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Deportivo Cuenca. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Tecnico Universitario expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Deportivo Cuenca in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Cuenca having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Tecnico Universitario Analysis

Tecnico Universitario approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 26 points from 25 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 21:34, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Julian Anaya (4 goals), Mateo Castano (3 goals), Johan Bocanegra (2 goals), with creative support from Mateo Castano (2 assists), Johan Bocanegra (2 assists), Luis Estupiñan (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportivo Cuenca Analysis

Deportivo Cuenca approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 32 points from 26 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 12 defeats with a 22:32 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Jorge Ordóñez (5 goals), Matías Klimowicz (3 goals), David González (2 goals), with creative support from David González (2 assists), Germán Rivero (2 assists), Carlos Arboleda (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tecnico Universitario won 5 times, Deportivo Cuenca won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:18 from Tecnico Universitario's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.4%)
Predicted formations: Tecnico Universitario 4-2-3-1 / Deportivo Cuenca 4-4-2
H2H summary: Tecnico Universitario wins 5, draws 4, Deportivo Cuenca wins 6

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 2 3 66:28 38 68
D W W W W
2 27 14 5 8 31:26 5 47
W W L W W
3 27 13 6 8 35:27 8 45
W L D W W
4 27 12 8 7 47:25 22 44
D W D L W
5 27 12 5 10 27:22 5 41
L W W L W
6 27 10 9 8 28:22 6 39
L W D L D
7 27 10 7 10 29:30 -1 37
L W D W W
8 27 9 9 9 33:34 -1 36
W D D W W
9 27 9 9 9 27:30 -3 36
W W D D L
10 27 9 8 10 29:30 -1 35
L L W L D
11 27 9 8 10 23:32 -9 32
W L W D L
12 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
13 27 8 6 13 31:41 -10 30
L L W D L
14 27 9 2 16 26:38 -12 29
W L L L L
15 27 6 6 15 17:29 -12 24
L L L D L
16 27 5 5 17 14:37 -23 20
W L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs